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Bernier's Best

EPL Overlays for August 7

by Matt Bernier
Updated On: August 5, 2022, 6:53 pm ET

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The first Sunday of the 2022-2023 English Premier League season features just three fixtures, however there is sure to be excitement with two of the giants in all European football preparing to kick-off their league campaigns.

While the rivals from Manchester – City and United – will steal the headlines ahead of their seasonal debuts (against West Ham and Brighton), the game that appeals most for wagering purposes is the contest set to take place at King Power Stadium between Leicester City and Brentford.

Below you will find an overlay from Sunday's match between these two clubs that is available at PointsBet.

For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome's true probability.

For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.

If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would be an overlay.

 

LEICESTER CITY v. BRENTFORD – MATCH RESULT – Leicester City to Win (+100)

 

When assessing Leicester City's Premier League campaign last season, people can look at it one of two ways; either they got lucky to finish eighth overall given the number of goals the conceded, or they could have done considerably better had they been able to create more chances, as they were one of the better teams in the league at converting the chances they created.

Either way one slices it, the Foxes finished a mere six points ahead of the Bees from Brentford, who were embarking on their first season in England's topflight in ages.

Led by Thomas Frank, Brentford kicked off their season last year in fine fashion, earning points in six of their first seven league matches.

The impressive form didn't last long, however, as the Bees proceeded to lose fourteen of their next twenty games, earning just twelve points over this stretch.

The acquisition of Christian Eriksen provided Brentford with a spark toward the end of the campaign, averaging nearly two goals per game over their final eleven matches to close out the season.

Unfortunately for the Bees and their fans, Eriksen has moved on to Manchester United, leaving a rather large void for Brentford in the attacking midfield area.

While Leicester City are dealing with a large defection of their own, their typically spirited play in front of their home supporters for manager Brendan Rodgers should be enough to propel them to victory on Sunday.

 

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Longtime netminder and Leicester captain Kasper Schmeichel moved on to Ligue 1 club Nice, creating an open competition for the Foxes' #1 goalkeeper.

Presumptive #1 Danny Ward has been dinged up all preseason, leaving his status for the season opener in doubt; if he doesn't go, it will likely result in Daniel Iversen getting the nod.

Regardless of who gets the call, it's my belief that the home side is the correct side on Sunday.

PointsBet currently has a Leicester City victory listed at odds of +100 (implied probability of 50%), a number which feels fair this early in the season.

 

 

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Matt Bernier

Matt Bernier is a betting analyst for NBC Sports and host of "The Matt Bernier Show" podcast. His work has been showcased in the Daily Racing Form, on ESPN, as well as on TVG. Matt can be followed on Twitter @bernier_matt.