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Bernier's Best

EPL Overlays for Jan. 16

by Matt Bernier
Updated On: January 14, 2022, 5:00 pm ET

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The main event in the English Premier League on Sunday is the North London Derby between Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal, however there’s still some uncertainty whether the match will go on as planned.

As of midday Friday, Arsenal have appealed to have the match postponed due to COVID-19 related issues.

While that contest offers just mild appeal from a gambling point of view, one of the other fixtures on Sunday features a tremendous betting opportunity based on my projections.

Below you will find an overlay from Sunday’s contest between West Ham and Leeds United available at PointsBet.

For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.

For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.

If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.

 

 

WEST HAM v. LEEDS UNITED – HANDICAP WITH TIE – WEST HAM -1 (+175)

Sunday’s clash between West Ham and Leeds features two clubs with form trending in the opposite directions.

The Hammers have seemingly righted the ship following a mid-December lull, rattling off four consecutive victories in all competitions since December 28.

The catalysts for the East London club’s form reversal have been Argentinian midfielder Manuel Lanzini and English forward Jarrod Bowen, each of whom have taken their games to another level over the past two weeks.

Over this four-game stretch, Lanzini has contributed three goals (including a converted penalty), while Bowen has scored three times and assisted twice more.

The offensive explosion for West Ham comes at a time where their competition for the fourth and final Champions League position in the Premier League table has come under fire, with both Arsenal and Tottenham breathing down their necks.

Despite not owning the greatest record at London Stadium this season, the Hammers have the luxury of taking on a Leeds United side that has struggled mightily all year on the road.

 

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Leeds have earned just six of a possible twenty-seven road points this year while being outscored by their opponents 21-8.

Given the trajectory of these two clubs, it seems very reasonable to think West Ham will defeat Leeds by at least two goals on Sunday.

Based on my numbers, West Ham defeats Leeds by at least two goals 42.4% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of +136.

When compared to West Ham’s odds of +175 (implied probability of 36.4%) to win by at least two goals, it becomes understandable why this is a play worth considering.

 

 

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Matt Bernier

Matt Bernier is a betting analyst for NBC Sports and host of "The Matt Bernier Show" podcast. His work has been showcased in the Daily Racing Form, on ESPN, as well as on TVG. Matt can be followed on Twitter @bernier_matt.