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Bernier's Best

EPL Overlays for Sept. 10

by Matt Bernier
Updated On: September 8, 2022, 9:06 pm ET

 

It may be early in the Premier League season, but one of the bluebloods of English football have already made a seismic change to their organization.

Thomas Tuchel was removed from his position as manager of Chelsea Football Club earlier this week, with a 1-0 loss to Dinamo Zagreb in the Champions League being the straw that broke the camel's back following a sluggish start to their Premier League campaign.

The man to replace Tuchel as boss at Chelsea is Graham Potter, who leaves Brighton & Hove Albion for one of the biggest clubs in all professional football.

Despite the departure of their main man, Brighton is primed to continue their winning ways this week on the road against Bournemouth.

Below you will find an overlay from Saturday's match between AFC Bournemouth and Brighton, with the best price currently available at DraftKings.

For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome's true probability.

For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.

If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would be an overlay.

 

Here is the year-to-date results tally:
4-5-1 (45%), -0.02 units

 

AFC BOURNEMOUTH v. BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION – MONEYLINE – Brighton (-115)

 

There's a scenario in which the Seagulls regress with the loss of Potter, largely because he felt like a perfect fit for a club like Brighton.

Currently sitting fourth in the table, Brighton finds themselves splitting the “Big Six” of English football through six league matches: Arsenal, Manchester City, and Tottenham above them, with Manchester United, Chelsea, and Liverpool nipping at their heels.

Potter's teams have always been fundamentally sound, helping to make up for the lack of superstar talent on their roster.

Pascal Gross and Alexis Mac Allister have paced the Seagulls from a scoring standpoint, however their bread and butter is their ability to limit their opponent's quality scoring chances.

Through six games, Brighton have allowed a mere 2.83 shots on target per ninety minutes (according to fbref.com), a number that is third-best in the Premier League trailing only Manchester City and Tottenham.

Enter AFC Bournemouth, who, in their first season back in England's topflight, have found goal scoring opportunities to be few and far between.

 

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Having scored just five goals in six games, the Cherries average a league-worst 2.17 shots on target per ninety, sitting nearly a half-shot behind the second worst team in this category (Nottingham Forest).

The picture is even bleaker when considering that three of their five goals on the season came in last week's road victory over Nottingham Forest, who, too, appear destined for relegation.

All of this is to say that, even without Graham Potter in charge, Brighton should be able to take care of business against an overmatched Bournemouth side at Vitality Stadium on Saturday.

My numbers indicate that Brighton takes all three points on offer 62.3% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of -165.

With this in mind, the -115 (implied probability of 53.5%) odds available at DraftKings are too enticing to pass up.

Matt Bernier

Matt Bernier is a betting analyst for NBC Sports and host of "The Matt Bernier Show" podcast. His work has been showcased in the Daily Racing Form, on ESPN, as well as on TVG. Matt can be followed on Twitter @bernier_matt.