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Bernier's Best

EPL Overlays for Sept. 17

by Matt Bernier
Updated On: September 16, 2022, 5:22 pm ET

 

The passing of Queen Elizabeth II caused the English Premier League to postpone all matches last weekend, briefly pausing the season.

Action returns to the pitch this weekend, albeit with a slightly condensed slate (Brighton v. Palace, Manchester United v. Leeds, and Chelsea v. Liverpool have all been postponed to a later date).

Of the three matches taking place Saturday, the only contest that offers any intrigue from a gambling point of view features Newcastle United taking on Bournemouth at St. James' Park.

Below you will find an overlay from Saturday's match to consider, with the listed odds available at DraftKings.

For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome's true probability.

For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.

If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would be an overlay.

 

Here is the year-to-date results tally:
4-5-1 (45%), -0.02 units

 

NEWCASTLE UNITED v. AFC BOURNEMOUTH – SPREAD – Newcastle -1.5 (+125)

 

Newcastle's record of 1-4-1 through six league matches may appear disappointing, and frankly it is to a degree.

Having earned just seven points at this stage in the season is a bit underwhelming for the Magpies and their supporters, but to be fair, Eddie Howe and company have taken on some of the better squads in England over the course of the opening month of play.

Newcastle have taken on three of the top seven clubs in the table (Manchester City, Brighton, and Liverpool), battling to a couple of draws while losing a heartbreaker against the Reds at Anfield deep into stoppage time.

In addition, two other contests came against quality opponents in Wolverhampton Wanderers and Crystal Palace, teams whose demanding style of football present challenges for even the most skilled of teams.

The most reasonable comp for Saturday's game against Bournemouth is Newcastle's game against Nottingham Forest to kick off the season, a match which they won 2-0 in front of the home crowd.

The Magpies are dinged up, with key players like Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin still nursing injuries, but players like Alexander Isak and Miguel Almirón should be ready to pounce on a vulnerable Bournemouth side.

 

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AFC Bournemouth, in their first season back in England's topflight, have found goal scoring opportunities incredibly hard to come by this year.

The Cherries have an extremely difficult time putting shots on net, averaging just 2.17 shots on target per ninety minutes (fbref.com), a number that's far and away the worst in the Premier League.

On the season, Bournemouth have scored a total of five goals in six games, with three of those coming against a Nottingham Forest side that, too, looks to be destined for relegation.

All of this is to say that Newcastle has a prime “get right” scenario in front of them Saturday, looking to climb back into the win column against an inferior opponent at St. James' Park.

My numbers suggest Newcastle defeat AFC Bournemouth by at least two goals 51.6% of the time (implied probability of -107), making their odds to cover -1.5 of +125 (implied probability of 44.4%) a bet worth making.

Matt Bernier

Matt Bernier is a betting analyst for NBC Sports and host of "The Matt Bernier Show" podcast. His work has been showcased in the Daily Racing Form, on ESPN, as well as on TVG. Matt can be followed on Twitter @bernier_matt.