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Bernier's Best

EPL Overlays for Sept. 18

by Matt Bernier
Updated On: September 17, 2022, 11:12 am ET

 

With just two fixtures on tap in the English Premier League on Sunday, quality betting opportunities are few and far between.

One offering that does appeal, however, comes from the contest between Everton and West Ham.

Below you will find an overlay from this match to consider, with the listed odds available at DraftKings.

For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome's true probability.

For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.

If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would be an overlay.

 

Here is the year-to-date results tally:
4-5-1 (45%), -0.02 units (with Saturday's Newcastle v. Bournemouth result pending)

 

EVERTON v. WEST HAM – BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – No (+110)

 

It comes as a bit of a surprise to see West Ham sitting in the relegation zone through six weeks given how well David Moyes' side performed in the league last year, but the Hammers have shown signs of life recently playing in outside competitions.

Sitting just ahead of West Ham in the table is Everton, who continue to underperform under the leadership of manager Frank Lampard.

While each of these teams have quality players – particularly up front – they continue to find goals hard to come by.

To date, Everton have scored just four times in Premier League matches this season, while West Ham have been even worse, scoring on just three occasions.

 

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The absence of Jordan Pickford from Everton's starting eleven makes them more vulnerable but given what these sides have displayed to this point, it's hard to imagine either team racing up and down the pitch to create more than a handful of quality scoring chances.

Although neither side is particularly proficient at maintaining possession (West Ham 40.3%, eighteenth in the league; Everton 39.8%, nineteenth in the league), I must believe this is going to be a match that features a slower tempo, with neither team afforded the luxury of a loss at this stage.

My numbers suggest these two sides play to a nil-nil draw or see one team win via clean sheet 56.5% of the time, indicating that the current odds on both teams not scoring of +110 (implied probability of 47.6%) is an overlay worth considering.

Matt Bernier

Matt Bernier is a betting analyst for NBC Sports and host of "The Matt Bernier Show" podcast. His work has been showcased in the Daily Racing Form, on ESPN, as well as on TVG. Matt can be followed on Twitter @bernier_matt.