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Bernier's Best

EPL Overlays for Sept. 4

by Matt Bernier
Updated On: September 2, 2022, 2:12 pm ET

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There may only be two matches slated to take place on Sunday in the Premier League, but the main event is a massive one pitting Erik Ten Hag's Manchester United squad against Mikel Arteta and league leading Arsenal.

Below you will find an overlay from this match to consider that is available at PointsBet.

For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome's true probability.

For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.

If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would be an overlay.


Here is the year-to-date results tally:
4-3-1 (56.3%), +1.98 units (with Saturday's Newcastle v. Palace wager pending)




Although the start to their '22-'23 campaign was a disastrous one, there is reason for optimism in Manchester when it comes to Erik Ten Hag and his United squad.

After dropping each of their first two games of the season, Ten Hag's men have seemingly righted the ship with sounder fundamentals and a renewed energy on the pitch.

Obviously the longer Ten Hag has to implement his style and tactics, the more likely United are to settle in and find their stride – but it's also hard to ignore the fact that this improvement in play coincides with far less involvement from Cristiano Ronaldo.

Young attackers like Jadon Sancho and Marcus Rashford are playing a freer style of football, likely because they're not looking over their shoulders waiting for a living legend to bark at them anytime they make an error (or don't get him the ball).

Christian Eriksen continues to look the part of a floor general of sorts in the midfield, and with additions like Casemiro, Lisandro Martinez, and the newly acquired Antony (who likely won't play Sunday), Manchester United look to be headed in the right direction.

It's not all roses for United, however.


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Mediocre possession stats (51.6%; ninth-best in the PL) and a continued inability to put the ball in the back of the net (five goals in five games; seventh fewest in the PL) leave Manchester United vulnerable against teams that have equal or better talent – which is exactly what Arsenal is.

The only team in the Premier League yet to drop points on the season, Arsenal Football Club have the look of Arsenal squads of old, allowing their supporters to dream of bigger and better (even if we're only five weeks into the season).

A lethal combination of possession (57%; fourth-best in the league) and precise passing (83.9% completions; third-best in the league) allow the Gunners to take high-quality shots, averaging 6.2 shots on target per ninety minutes (via fbref.com).

The vast majority of Arsenal's starting eleven are playing at a high level, but the Brazilian attacking duo of Jesus and Martinelli have been outstanding.

Perhaps the most intriguing thing about Arteta's squad, though?

They're still learning, with most of their key players (Jesus, Martinelli, Martin Odegaard, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Bukayo Saka, and Aaron Ramsdale) being 25 years old or younger.

This could be just the tip of the iceberg for Arsenal – but one match at a time.

While United are certainly on the improve, the same can be said about Arsenal, who are both improving and playing outstanding football at the moment.

I believe Arsenal goes into Old Trafford and emerges with a win (or a draw resulting in no bet) 54.5% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of -120.

This would suggest that taking Arsenal to win with a draw equaling no bet at odds of -110 (implied probability of 52.4%) is a bet worth making.



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Matt Bernier

Matt Bernier is a betting analyst for NBC Sports and host of "The Matt Bernier Show" podcast. His work has been showcased in the Daily Racing Form, on ESPN, as well as on TVG. Matt can be followed on Twitter @bernier_matt.