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Cam Fowler
Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
Bernier's Best

NHL Bets for Jan. 14

by Matt Bernier
Updated On: January 14, 2022, 12:40 pm ET

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Of the three games set to take place in the NHL on Friday night, only one offers any appeal from a gambling standpoint.

Below you will find an overlay to consider from tonight’s Wild v. Ducks game available at PointsBet.

For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability. 

For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100. 

If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.

 

 

ANAHEIM DUCKS at MINNESOTA WILD (Wild -1.5, -160 ML, OU 5.5)

Neither Anaheim nor Minnesota is in the best form at the moment, although Minnesota does bring back-to-back victories over Boston and Washington into tonight’s contest.

Interestingly, the two teams have struggled for completely opposite reasons.

Minnesota has allowed an enormous number of goals against in their last six games, averaging 4.33 goals against per game over this stretch.

Anaheim, on the other hand, has struggled mightily to put the puck in the back of the net.

The Ducks have scored fourteen goals in their last seven games, a number that may be worse than it looks when considering eight of the fourteen goals came in just two contests.

The critical element in tonight’s matchup could boil down to special teams play.

 

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While both teams are middle of the pack when it comes to 5-on-5 play, Anaheim has a decided advantage when comparing each team’s power play and penalty killing metrics.

Anaheim ranks fifth in the NHL in power play success, converting 26.67% of their chances on the man advantage.

Minnesota, meanwhile, only converts 17.27% of their chances on the power play, a rate that’s 23rd best in the league.

Both teams are similarly positioned when looking at league-wide penalty kill rankings, as well.

The Ducks kill off 85.32% of their opposition’s power play chances (fourth in the NHL), with the Wild’s number sitting below 80% (79.83%; 17th in the league).

Given the prices available on each team, Anaheim’s moneyline of +135 (implied probability of 42.6%) is worth betting.

Based on my projections, the Ducks defeat the Wild 46.9% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of +113.

 

 

THE PLAYS

Anaheim Ducks at Minnesota Wild – Ducks ML (+135)

 

 

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Matt Bernier

Matt Bernier is a betting analyst for NBC Sports and host of "The Matt Bernier Show" podcast. His work has been showcased in the Daily Racing Form, on ESPN, as well as on TVG. Matt can be followed on Twitter @bernier_matt.