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Darcy Kuemper
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Bernier's Best

NHL Bets for June 22

by Matt Bernier
Updated On: June 22, 2022, 1:07 pm ET

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The Tampa Bay Lightning showed signs of life in their 6-2 victory over the Colorado Avalanche in Game 3 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final, cutting into Colorado’s series lead which now sits at 2-1.

Was the Game 3 result merely a blip on the radar for the Avalanche or a sign of things to come?

Below you will find a wager to consider from Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final that is available at PointsBet.

For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.

For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.

If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.

 

COLORADO AVALANCHE at TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING 

Game 3 was an about-face for the Lightning following two dismal efforts in Denver in more ways than one.

Not only was Andrei Vasilevskiy much better in Monday’s game than either of the first two games of this series (stopped 94.9% of the shots he faced in Game 3), but Tampa was able to successfully enter the attacking zone and create some high-quality scoring opportunities.

As I mentioned in Monday’s analysis, the major concern for the Colorado Avalanche and their fans is their goaltending situation.

Darcy Kuemper led the Avs to victories in both Game 1 and Game 2, but he was far from brilliant in either effort.

Kuemper managed to stop just twenty of the twenty-three shots he faced in Game 1 (.870 save percentage), and while he did pitch a shutout in Game 2, he only faced sixteen shots total – few of which were quality chances.

The putrid Game 3 effort from Kuemper (allowed five goals on twenty-two shots against; .773 save percentage) led head coach Jared Bednar to replace him with backup netminder Pavel Francouz in the second period.

Francouz was decent in relief and has been an adequate backup all season, but the reality is he’s just that – a backup.

 

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It sounds as though Kuemper may be in line for the start tonight at Amalie Arena, a scenario that should be a mouthwatering proposition for Steven Stamkos and company.

If Tampa can continue to navigate their way through the neutral zone and apply pressure, Kuemper could easily fold again.

Knowing he’ll have a short leash, the prospect of Francouz entering shouldn’t terrify the Lightning, as he’s far from a sure thing (has stopped less than 92% of the shots he’s faced in five of his seven postseason appearances this year).

In what is still essentially a must-win for the Lightning, I’m expecting Jon Cooper’s team to continue rolling and get the job done tonight.

Rather than settle for odds of -110 on the moneyline (implied probability of 52.4%), I’m again going to take Tampa on the puck line at odds of +225 (implied probability of 30.8%).

 

THE PLAYS

Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning – Lightning -1.5 (+225)

 

 

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Matt Bernier

Matt Bernier is a betting analyst for NBC Sports and host of "The Matt Bernier Show" podcast. His work has been showcased in the Daily Racing Form, on ESPN, as well as on TVG. Matt can be followed on Twitter @bernier_matt.