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Alex Ovechkin
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Bernier's Best

NHL Bets for Nov. 24

by Matt Bernier
Updated On: November 24, 2021, 1:52 pm ET

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A massive Wednesday in the National Hockey League is on tap, as fourteen games are set to take place prior to the league-wide day off on Thanksgiving.

Below you will find four overlays to consider from tonight’s games available at PointsBet.

For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability. 

For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100. 

If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.

 

 

MONTREAL CANADIENS at WASHINGTON CAPITALS (Capitals -1.5, -200 ML, OU 6)

Jake Allen is expected to make his return to the crease for the Canadiens in tonight’s contest in Washington.

While that is certainly going to help Montreal’s cause long term, there is a chance he will have some rust to shake off prior to regaining his best form.

If this in fact is the case, Allen and the Habs could be in for a long night against a Washington Capitals side that has earned points in all but three games this season.

Alex Ovechkin continues showing few signs of age, scoring fifteen goals in nineteen games this season for the Caps.

Indications are that Ilya Samsonov will get the nod in net for Washington this evening, and if his recent run of form continues (three shutouts in his last five starts), Montreal is in trouble.

My projections suggest the Capitals defeat the Canadiens by at least two goals 52.7% of the time.

This percentage translates to odds of -111, indicating that Washington’s puck line odds of +120 (implied probability of 45.5%) represents a solid overlay.

 

 

ANAHEIM DUCKS at COLORADO AVALANCHE (Avalanche -1.5, -236 ML, OU 5.5)

Another day, another play on the Anaheim Ducks.

No, the Ducks are not as likely a winner as the Colorado Avalanche this evening.

That does not mean Anaheim does not offer immense value at their current moneyline odds of +185 (implied probability of 35.1%).

The Ducks dropped a tough decision in Nashville against the Predators on Monday night by a final of 3-2, however they showed in that loss that they can hang with solid teams playing away from Honda Center in Anaheim.

The test becomes stiffer tonight against an Avalanche team that has won five consecutive games.

Colorado may be in form, but they are still playing shorthanded, with the likes of Nathan MacKinnon, J.T. Compher, and Bowen Byram sidelined.

This looks to be a tremendous opportunity for the Ducks to strike and steal a game at Pepsi Center this evening.

Based on my numbers, Anaheim defeats Colorado tonight 43.1% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of +132.

This makes the Ducks’ moneyline odds of +185 extremely appealing.

 

 

 

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EDMONTON OILERS at ARIZONA COYOTES (Oilers -1.5, -216 ML, OU 6)

The Edmonton Oilers get set to play the second night of back-to-backs after getting thrashed by the Dallas Stars by a final of 4-1 yesterday.

In what was an uncharacteristically flat performance from an Oilers side that has been one of the best in the National Hockey League this season, there is every reason to believe they will get back on track tonight against the woeful Coyotes.

EDGE Finder tells us that Edmonton is 4-0 (+3.45 units) this season following a loss, illustrating their ability to put negative results behind them and immediately bounce back.

With Stuart Skinner having started last night against the Stars, Mikko Koskinen will likely be between the pipes for the Oilers.

Arizona will counter with Scott Wedgewood, who has played quite well since being claimed off waivers from the New Jersey Devils on November 4.

Nonetheless, taking on the offensive juggernaut that is the Edmonton Oilers is a stiff challenge for any goaltender, let alone one who has the Arizona Coyotes’ roster lined up in front of him.

My numbers suggest Edmonton defeats Arizona by at least two goals 55.3% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of -124.

This is in stark contrast to the Oilers’ puck line odds, which currently sit at +130 (implied probability of 43.5%).

 

 

CAROLINA HURRICANES at SEATTLE KRAKEN (Hurricanes -1.5, -145 ML, OU 5.5)

Seattle’s overall record of 5-12-1 may not sound impressive (probably because it is not), however a large reason their record is what it is falls squarely on the putrid goaltending they have received.

Few could have anticipated the monumental struggles of Philipp Grubauer following his fantastic campaign last year with Colorado, and it is not as though Chris Driedger has performed much better when called upon for the expansion Kraken.

Regardless of who gets the call this evening, the Carolina Hurricanes come to town and represent a very likely winner of tonight’s contest.

The Canes had their four-game winning streak snapped by the San Jose Sharks on Monday night, however they fought hard in front of backup goaltender Antti Raanta.

The reins will (presumably) be given back to starting netminder Frederik Andersen this evening, giving Carolina an even larger edge.

Andersen has been arguably the best goaltender in the NHL through the opening couple of months, boasting a GAA of 1.89 and a SV% of .937.

I expect Carolina to win tonight in Seattle and do so comfortably.

Based on my projections, the Hurricanes defeat the Kraken by at least two goals 46.9% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of +113.

This makes Carolina’s actual puck line odds of +170 (implied probability of 37%) an enormous overlay.

 

 

THE PLAYS

 

Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals – Capitals -1.5 (+120)

Anaheim Ducks at Colorado Avalanche – Ducks ML (+185)

Edmonton Oilers at Arizona Coyotes – Oilers -1.5 (+130)

Carolina Hurricanes at Seattle Kraken – Hurricanes -1.5 (+170)

 

 

PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.
 

Matt Bernier

Matt Bernier is a betting analyst for NBC Sports and host of "The Matt Bernier Show" podcast. His work has been showcased in the Daily Racing Form, on ESPN, as well as on TVG. Matt can be followed on Twitter @bernier_matt.