Brad Marchand
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Bernier's Best

NHL Projections and Bets for November 1

by Matt Bernier
Updated On: November 1, 2022, 3:19 pm ET

 

There is a massive, twelve game slate in the National Hockey League on Tuesday night which should offer gamblers many opportunities across the board.

Below you will find my projections for eleven of the twelve games (omitting home games for the Arizona Coyotes for the time being), as well as any wagers worth considering, with odds powered by PointsBet.

The percentages in parentheses next to the odds reflect the implied probability of the price listed.

Here is the results tally for this season:
27-24-0 (52.9%), +4.89 units

 

PROJECTIONS

 

OTTAWA SENATORS at TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

OTT

+170

+144 (41%)

+1.5 (-155)

-182 (64.6%)

O6.5 (-110)

-123 (55.1%)

+225

+204 (32.9%)

TBL

-206

-144 (59%)

-1.5 (+130)

 +182 (35.4%)

U6.5 (-110)

+123 (44.9%)

-131

-101 (50.2%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+360

+493 (16.9%)

 

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS at WASHINGTON CAPITALS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

VEG

-165

-171 (63.1%)

-1.5 (+160)

+169 (37.1%)

O6 (-121)

+128 (43.8%)

-110

-121 (54.8%)

WSH

+140

+171 (36.9%)

+1.5 (-196)

-169 (62.9%)

U6 (+100)

-128 (56.2%)

+190

+248 (28.7%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+340

+508 (16.5%)

 

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS at NEW YORK RANGERS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

PHI

+215

+180 (35.7%)

+1.5 (-125)

-147 (59.5%)

O6 (-105)

-124 (55.4%)

+275

+261 (27.7%)

NYR

-270

-180 (64.3%)

-1.5 (+105)

+147 (40.5%)

U6 (-115)

+124 (44.6%)

-155

-128 (56.2%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+360

+520 (16.1%)

 

BOSTON BRUINS at PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

BOS

+100

-146 (59.3%)

+1.5 (-250)

-358 (78.1%)

O6.5 (+100)

+156 (39.1%)

+140

-108 (51.9%)

PIT

-121

+146 (40.7%)

+1.5 (+200)

+358 (21.9%)

U6.5 (-121)

-156 (60.9%)

+120

+201 (33.3%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+330

+574 (14.8%)

 

MONTREAL CANADIENS at MINNESOTA WILD

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

MTL

+210

+132 (43.1%)

+1.5 (-131)

-202 (66.8%)

O6.5 (-105)

-146 (59.3%)

+270

+183 (35.3%)

MIN

-261

-132 (56.9%)

+1.5 (+110)

+202 (33.2%)

U6.5 (-115)

+146 (40.7%)

-160

+104 (49.1%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+370

+542 (15.6%)

 

NEW YORK ISLANDERS at CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

NYI

-200

-169 (62.9%)

-1.5 (+135)

+163 (38.1%)

O6 (-105)

-121 (54.7%)

-125

-120 (54.6%)

CHI

+165

+169 (37.1%)

+1.5 (-160)

-163 (61.9%)

U6 (-115)

+252 (28.4%)

+220

+247 (28.8%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+340

+502 (16.6%)

 

LOS ANGELES KINGS at DALLAS STARS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

LAK

+120

+163 (38%)

+1.5 (-221)

-149 (59.8%)

O6 (-121)

-125 (55.5%)

+165

+227 (30.6%)

DAL

-140

-163 (62%)

-1.5 (+180)

+149 (40.2%)

U6 (+100)

+250 (28.5%)

+105

-120 (54.6%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+330

+575 (14.8%)

 

SEATTLE KRAKEN at CALGARY FLAMES

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

SEA

+180

+158 (38.7%)

+1.5 (-155)

-161 (61.6%)

O6 (-125)

-162 (61.9%)

+235

+229 (30.4%)

CGY

-221

-158 (61.3%)

-1.5 (+130)

+161 (38.4%)

U6 (+105)

+312 (24.3%)

-136

-113 (53%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+360

+504 (16.6%)

 

NASHVILLE PREDATORS at EDMONTON OILERS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

NSH

+140

+208 (32.4%)

+1.5 (-186)

-122 (54.9%)

O6.5 (-121)

-148 (59.7%)

+190

+295 (25.3%)

EDM

-165

-208 (67.6%)

-1.5 (+155)

+122 (45.1%)

U6.5 (+100)

+148 (40.3%)

-110

-153 (60.5%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+350

+607 (14.1%)

 

NEW JERSEY DEVILS at VANCOUVER CANUCKS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

NJD

-115

-116 (53.8%)

-1.5 (+205)

-244 (70.9%)

O6.5 (-105)

+148 (40.4%)

+125

+122 (45.1%)

VAN

-105

+116 (46.2%)

+1.5 (-255)

+244 (29.1%)

U6.5 (-115)

-148 (59.6%)

+135

+166 (37.6%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+340

+479 (17.3%)

 

ANAHEIM DUCKS at SAN JOSE SHARKS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

ANA

+110

+140 (41.7%)

+1.5 (-236)

-197 (66.3%)

O6 (-105)

+206 (32.6%)

+155

+201 (33.2%)

SJS

-131

-140 (58.3%)

-1.5 (+190)

+197 (33.7%)

U6 (-115)

-108 (51.8%)

+115

+101 (49.7%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+330

+486 (17.1%)

 

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BETS

 

  • At face value it seems as though the Lightning have righted the ship after a rocky start, winning four of their last five games. Defeating the likes of San Jose and Anaheim would hardly qualify as quality wins, though, and tonight's opponent in the Ottawa Senators will represent a stiffer test. Despite losing consecutive games to the Panthers and Wild, this Senators team has shown that they will be a force to be reckoned with in the Eastern Conference very soon. Young stars like Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson (among others) continue to show improvement, and Anton Forsberg has been better in goal than his numbers might suggest. With the Lightning looking on the shakier side to begin this season, the Sens on the moneyline at +170 represents a great opportunity to take a chance on a team that's on the rise.
  • The model's numbers may be a bit overzealous, but it's fairly easy to understand why it indicates the Bruins should be clearcut favorites over the Penguins in Pittsburgh tonight. The Bruins rank ahead of the Pens in nearly every meaningful statistical category, and unlike the Penguins, they look fresh and full of energy – which is surprising given the roster's average age of 29.2 (seventh oldest in the league). Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has looked slow and lethargic at times, specifically against some of the upper echelon teams in either conference. The Bruins 3-way moneyline price is technically better value than their moneyline price, but I wouldn't fault anyone that would rather take them straight away with no strings attached. Me? I'm playing both given the overlays that they represent.
  • The Habs enter Tuesday night's game in Minnesota on the heels of back-to-back road victories over the Sabres and Blues, and while they may not be a juggernaut, the Canadiens aren't the pushovers they were last season. The Wild continue to be given too much credit for what they've accomplished on the ice this year, and their goaltending continues to be the primary area of concern (although things have tightened up a bit lately). Montreal gave the Wild all they could handle at Bell Centre last week, and while my wager on them was a loser, I was satisfied with the play. I think I'm again getting the best of it in terms of pricing this evening in St. Paul, leading me back to the Habs on the moneyline.
  • The Oil is flowing in Edmonton, with the Oilers rattling off victories in five of their last six games. Conversely, the Preds enter tonight's contest as losers of six of their last seven games, including a 3-0 shutout loss in Washington on Saturday. Connor McDavid has a three-game point streak enter tonight's game, with a four-point game against the Blackhawks (including a hat-trick) and a three-point game against the Flames in his last two. Jack Campbell has been subpar (at best) this season, but as long as he doesn't lose the game for the Oilers, McDavid and the offense should be able to secure a victory in regulation.

 

THE PLAYS:

 

  • OTTAWA SENATORS at TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Senators ML (+170)
  • BOSTON BRUINS at PITTSBURGH PENGUINS – Bruins ML (+100)
  • BOSTON BRUINS at PITTSBURGH PENGUINS – Bruins 3-way ML (+140)
  • MONTREAL CANADIENS at MINNESOTA WILD – Canadiens ML (+210)
  • NASHVILLE PREDATORS at EDMONTON OILERS – Oilers 3-way ML (-110)

 

 

Matt Bernier

Matt Bernier is a betting analyst for NBC Sports and host of "The Matt Bernier Show" podcast. His work has been showcased in the Daily Racing Form, on ESPN, as well as on TVG. Matt can be followed on Twitter @bernier_matt.