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Brock Nelson
Tom Horak-USA TODAY Sports
Bernier's Best

NHL Projections and Bets for November 7

by Matt Bernier
Updated On: November 7, 2022, 1:26 pm ET

 

A quiet Monday in the NHL leaves bettors three games to peruse in search of value.

Below you will find my projections for each of the three games on tap as well as any wagers worth considering, with odds powered by PointsBet.

The percentages in parentheses next to the odds reflect the implied probability of the price listed.

Here is the results tally for this season:
29-27-0 (51.8%), +3.8 units

 

PROJECTIONS

 

ST. LOUIS BLUES at BOSTON BRUINS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

STL

+165

+155 (39.2%)

+1.5 (-155)

-173 (63.3%)

O6.5 (+105)

-125 (55.5%)

+220

+215 (31.7%)

BOS

-200

-155 (60.8%)

-1.5 (+130)

 +173 (36.7%)

U6.5 (-125)

+125 (44.5%)

-125

-114 (53.4%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+350

+570 (14.9%)

 

CALGARY FLAMES at NEW YORK ISLANDERS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

CGY

-125

+112 (47.2%)

-1.5 (+200)

+316 (24%)

O6 (-110)

+129 (43.7%)

+115

+157 (39%)

NYI

+105

-112 (52.8%)

+1.5 (-250)

-316 (76%)

U6 (-110)

+154 (39.3%)

+150

+124 (44.6%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+330

+508 (16.4%)

 

EDMONTON OILERS at WASHINGTON CAPITALS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

EDM

-176

-116 (53.8%)

-1.5 (+155)

+238 (29.6%)

O6.5 (-105)

+123 (44.8%)

-110

+119 (45.7%)

WSH

+145

+116 (46.2%)

+1.5 (-186)

-238 (70.4%)

U6.5 (-115)

-123 (55.2%)

+190

+162 (38.1%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+340

+516 (16.2%)

 

 

 

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BETS

  • The numbers might suggest that OVER 6.5 should be looked at in tonight's game at TD Garden between the Bruins and Blues, but between the anemic St. Louis offense and the red-hot Linus Ullmark, I'm inclined to stay away. Jordan Binnington has fallen off a cliff after his fantastic start for the Blues (which was expected given his streaky nature of play), but the lack of production from Ryan O'Reilly and Ivan Barbashev to this point is alarming. I'm staying away from this one.
  • The Flames go limping into New York to take on the Islanders this evening, having lost each of their last four games – all of which came at home. The Islanders had a five-game winning streak snapped on Saturday on the road in Detroit, and while the first game back from a road trip is always a dangerous proposition in the NHL, I have faith that Ilya Sorokin can keep the potent attack of the Flames at bay. Sorokin has been tremendous all season, but especially so over his last five appearances, stopping 95.5% of the 134 shots he's faced. The Isles' 3-way moneyline price offers a slightly better value, making that the play in this spot.
  • If I'm being honest, I'm not crazy about the notion of taking the Caps over the Oilers amid a four-game losing streak, but the game seems mispriced. Both goaltenders that are scheduled to go tonight have been better than people might expect (Stuart Skinner v. Charlie Lindgren), and it's not as though Edmonton comes into tonight's contest in rare form. If you're backing the Caps tonight, the primary concern relates to special teams. Edmonton's power play continues to be one of the most lethal units in all of hockey, converting at just under 32% this season (second-best in the NHL). If Washington can maintain their composure, stay out of the box, and slow the tempo down, they're capable of pulling out the victory.

 

THE PLAYS:

  • CALGARY FLAMES at NEW YORK ISLANDERS – Islanders 3-Way ML (+150)
  • EDMONTON OILERS at WASHINGTON CAPITALS – Capitals ML (+145)

 

 

Matt Bernier

Matt Bernier is a betting analyst for NBC Sports and host of "The Matt Bernier Show" podcast. His work has been showcased in the Daily Racing Form, on ESPN, as well as on TVG. Matt can be followed on Twitter @bernier_matt.