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Bernier's Best

NHL Projections and Bets for November 8

by Matt Bernier
Updated On: November 8, 2022, 2:01 pm ET

 

A loaded Tuesday in the National Hockey League affords bettors many opportunities to find appealing wagering propositions.

Below you will find my projections for each of the eleven games on tap as well as any wagers worth considering, with odds powered by PointsBet.

The percentages in parentheses next to the odds reflect the implied probability of the price listed.

Here is the results tally for this season:
30-28-0 (51.7%), +4.25 units

 

PROJECTIONS

 

ARIZONA COYOTES at BUFFALO SABRES

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

ARI

+175

+319 (23.9%)

+1.5 (-136)

+115 (46.6%)

O6.5 (-125)

+136 (42.4%)

+230

+466 (17.7%)

BUF

-216

-319 (76.1%)

-1.5 (+115)

 -115 (53.4%)

U6.5 (+105)

-136 (57.6%)

-136

-233 (69.9%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+370

+708 (12.4%)

 

NEW YORK ISLANDERS at NEW YORK RANGERS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

NYI

+155

+141 (41.5%)

+1.5 (-176)

-183 (64.7%)

O6 (-110)

+113 (46.9%)

+210

+195 (33.9%)

NYR

-186

-141 (58.5%)

-1.5 (+145)

+183 (35.3%)

U6 (-110)

+178 (36%)

-121

-104 (50.9%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+340

+558 (15.2%)

 

MONTREAL CANADIENS at DETROIT RED WINGS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

MTL

+140

+136 (42.4%)

+1.5 (-186)

-210 (67.8%)

O6 (-110)

+127 (44%)

+190

+195 (33.8%)

DET

-165

-136 (57.6%)

-1.5 (+155)

+210 (32.2%)

U6 (-110)

-127 (56%)

-110

+104 (49%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+330

+485 (17.1%)

 

CALGARY FLAMES at NEW JERSEY DEVILS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

CGY

+115

+148 (40.3%)

+1.5 (-230)

-200 (66.6%)

O6.5 (-136)

+251 (28.5%)

+155

+212 (32.1%)

NJD

-136

-148 (59.7%)

-1.5 (+185)

+200 (33.4%)

U6.5 (+115)

-251 (71.5%)

+105

-106 (51.4%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+350

+507 (16.5%)

 

VANCOUVER CANUCKS at OTTAWA SENATORS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

VAN

+105

-102 (50.6%)

+1.5 (-230)

-283 (73.9%)

O6.5 (-136)

+125 (44.4%)

+145

+137 (42.2%)

OTT

-125

+102 (49.4%)

-1.5 (+185)

+283 (26.1%)

U6.5 (+115)

-125 (55.6%)

+115

+144 (41%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+350

+494 (16.8%)

 

ST. LOUIS BLUES at PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

STL

-125

+157 (39%)

-1.5 (+195)

+426 (19%)

O6 (-110)

+123 (44.8%)

+115

+218 (31.5%)

PHI

+105

-157 (61%)

+1.5 (-245)

-426 (81%)

U6 (-110)

-123 (55.2%)

+150

-115 (53.5%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+330

+565 (15%)

 

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS at TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

VEG

-105

+101 (49.6%)

+1.5 (-245)

-279 (73.6%)

O6.5 (-110)

+105 (48.8%)

+135

+142 (41.3%)

TOR

-115

-101 (50.4%)

-1.5 (+195)

+279 (26.4%)

U6.5 (-110)

-105 (51.2%)

+125

+138 (42%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+340

+498 (16.7%)

 

EDMONTON OILERS at TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

EDM

+150

+140 (41.6%)

+1.5 (-165)

-171 (63.1%)

O6.5 (-125)

-131 (56.8%)

+200

+194 (34%)

TBL

-180

-140 (58.4%)

-1.5 (+140)

+171 (36.9%)

U6.5 (+105)

+131 (43.2%)

-121

-103 (50.8%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+360

+559 (15.2%)

 

DALLAS STARS at WINNIPEG JETS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

DAL

-121

-118 (54.2%)

-1.5 (+210)

+227 (30.5%)

O6 (-115)

-166 (62.4%)

+120

+118 (46%)

WPG

+100

+118 (45.8%)

+1.5 (-261)

-227 (69.5%)

U6 (-105)

+342 (22.6%)

+140

+166 (37.6%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+330

+510 (16.4%)

 

NASHVILLE PREDATORS at SEATTLE KRAKEN

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

NSH

+100

-110 (52.4%)

+1.5 (-261)

-322 (76.3%)

O6 (-115)

+150 (39.6%)

+140

+128 (43.9%)

SEA

-121

+110 (47.6%)

-1.5 (+210)

+322 (23.7%)

U6 (-105)

+130 (43.4%)

+120

+156 (39.1%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+330

+489 (17%)

 

MINNESOTA WILD at LOS ANGELES KINGS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

MIN

-110

+151 (39.8%)

+1.5 (-276)

-170 (63%)

O6.5 (-105)

-203 (67%)

+130

+213 (31.9%)

LAK

-110

-151 (60.2%)

-1.5 (+220)

+170 (37%)

U6.5 (-115)

+203 (33%)

+130

-109 (52.2%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+340

+531 (15.9%)

 

 

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BETS

  • The Flames get set to play the second half of back-to-backs tonight in New Jersey following a collapse of epic proportions on Long Island last night, leading me to believe they could be a bit sluggish in this spot. After dominating the first two periods against the Islanders on Monday, Calgary melted down in the third, surrendering a two-goal lead before eventually losing in overtime by a final score of 4-3. Dan Vladar will get the call tonight for the Flames, taking on a Devils bunch that is red-hot. Winners of nine of their last ten, New Jersey has announced themselves as a legitimate threat in the Eastern Conference, playing exceptional 5-on-5 hockey and receiving fantastic goaltending from Vitek Vanecek. The Devils displayed promise last season, but ultimately it was their goaltending that let them down. Now, with Vanecek riding a five-game winning streak (owning a .940 save percentage over the stretch), Jersey is flying. Given the price available, I'm inclined to look at the total going UNDER 6.5 goals.
  • Speaking of playing for the second time in as many days, the St. Louis Blues travel to Philadelphia to take on the Flyers following a 3-1 defeat in Boston on Monday. Things have hit rock bottom for the Blues, losing seven-straight games largely due to their incompetent offense. St. Louis has scored just twenty-two goals in ten games this season, easily the fewest in the National Hockey League. They now get set to take on Carter Hart, and he's in career form. Hart has compiled a record of 6-0-2 on the year with a save percentage of .946 against 296 shots, staking his claim as the best goaltender in the Eastern Conference through the first month of the season. An on-point goalie taking on an anemic offense? Give me the goaltender every time.
  • Minnesota has been better lately, but it's my belief that books continue to overprice them, strictly based on last season's efforts. Neither the Wild nor the Kings are spectacular, ranking in the middle of the pack when it comes to the most predictive statistics in hockey. With evenly matched teams I'm always going to look at the goalie matchup as the tiebreaker. In this case, while he's not been great, I have more faith in Jonathan Quick than I do Marc-Andre Fleury. Fleury's save percentage on the season is a mere .888, ranking twenty-five points below his career average of .913. While he's earned the victory in two of his last three appearances, his save percentage in those three games is still just .905. Until the market adjusts, I'm going to continue to stand against the Wild when the odds are in my favor. Also, while Fleury and Quick are each first-ballot Hall of Famers, I'll be playing OVER 6.5 goals total in this contest.

 

THE PLAYS:

  • CALGARY FLAMES at NEW JERSEY DEVILS – Under 6.5 Goals (+115)
  • ST. LOUIS BLUES at PHILADELPHIA FLYERS – Flyers 3-Way ML (+150)
  • MINNESOTA WILD at LOS ANGELES KINGS – Kings ML (-110)
  • MINNESOTA WILD at LOS ANGELES KINGS – Over 6.5 Goals (-105)

 

Matt Bernier

Matt Bernier is a betting analyst for NBC Sports and host of "The Matt Bernier Show" podcast. His work has been showcased in the Daily Racing Form, on ESPN, as well as on TVG. Matt can be followed on Twitter @bernier_matt.