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Bernier's Best

NHL Projections and Bets for November 9

by Matt Bernier
Updated On: November 9, 2022, 12:10 pm ET

 

A quieter Wednesday in the National Hockey League sees just four games taking place, however the main event between the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers is sure to be must-see action.

Below you will find my projections for the four games on tap this evening as well as any wagers worth considering, with odds powered by PointsBet.

The percentages in parentheses next to the odds reflect the implied probability of the price listed.

Here is the results tally for this season:
33-29-0 (53.2%), +6.81 units

 

PROJECTIONS

 

CAROLINA HURRICANES at FLORIDA PANTHERS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

CAR

-110

-114 (53.2%)

+1.5 (-261)

-284 (73.9%)

O6.5 (-131)

-156 (61%)

+130

+119 (45.6%)

FLA

-110

+114 (46.8%)

-1.5 (+210)

 +284 (26.1%)

U6.5 (+110)

+156 (39%)

+130

+154 (39.3%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+350

+565 (15%)

 

VANCOUVER CANUCKS at MONTREAL CANADIENS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

VAN

-160

-108 (51.9%)

-1.5 (+160)

+244 (29%)

O6.5 (-125)

-242 (70.8%)

-110

+124 (44.7%)

MTL

+135

+108 (48.1%)

+1.5 (-196)

-244 (71%)

U6.5 (+105)

+242 (29.2%)

+185

+145 (40.8%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+350

+589 (14.5%)

 

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS at WASHINGTON CAPITALS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

PIT

-131

+123 (44.9%)

-1.5 (+190)

+302 (24.9%)

O6.5 (-110)

-204 (67.1%)

+110

+164 (37.8%)

WSH

+110

-123 (55.1%)

+1.5 (-236)

-302 (75.1%)

U6.5 (-110)

+204 (32.9%)

+155

+108 (48%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+340

+604 (14.2%)

 

MINNESOTA WILD at ANAHEIM DUCKS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

MIN

-165

+101 (49.7%)

-1.5 (+150)

+258 (28%)

O6.5 (-105)

-160 (61.5%)

-110

+138 (42%)

ANA

+140

-101 (50.2%)

+1.5 (-180)

-258 (72%)

U6.5 (-115)

+160 (38.5%)

+190

+135 (42.6%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+350

+550 (15.4%)

 

 

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BETS

  • Neither Vancouver nor Montreal is particularly good, but the Habs have more than a puncher's chance to win in regulation tonight in front of their home fans. Sam Montembeault likely gets the call for the Canadiens in goal, and he's been very solid in limited action this season (.928 save percentage). The crux of this game boils down to special teams play – particularly in relation to Vancouver. The Canucks have been dreadful on the penalty kill all season, staving off just 60.5% of their opposition's opportunities. This percentage is easily the worst in the league, ranking nearly 18% worse than league average. If Montreal can pot a couple of these opportunities and Montembault doesn't steer the vehicle off the road, the Canadiens can emerge victorious in regulation.
  • Washington snapped a four-game losing streak on Monday when they defeated the Edmonton Oilers by a final score of 5-4, and tonight they welcome their longtime rivals, the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Pens have been a dumpster fire lately, losing eight of their last ten games including seven in a row entering Wednesday night's contest. Not only has Mike Sullivan's bunch been losing – they've been losing in epic fashion. Meltdowns against both Boston and Buffalo last week leave supporters of the team wondering where the aging group is headed, with no turnaround in sight. Darcy Kuemper gets the nod for the Caps at home, and he's showcased good form lately (.939 save percentage over last five appearances) which should propel Washington to victory (hopefully in regulation).
  • I expected a plethora of goals in last night's game between the Kings and Wild, only to see the wily old veterans Jonathan Quick and Marc-Andre Fleury duel to a 1-0 final in favor of Los Angeles. Tonight, the Wild take on an Anaheim Ducks team that allows an absurd number of shots (526 shots against this season; forty-one shots more than the team with the second most shots allowed), leading me to believe this game will feature goals in droves. The potential goaltending matchup of Filip Gustavsson and John Gibson should only increase the chances of fireworks, too.

 

THE PLAYS:

  • VANCOUVER CANUCKS at MONTREAL CANADIENS – Canadiens 3-Way ML (+175)
  • PITTSBURGH PENGUINS at WASHINGTON CAPITALS – Capitals 3-Way ML (+160)
  • MINNESOTA WILD at ANAHEIM DUCKS – Over 6.5 Goals (-110)

 

 

Matt Bernier

Matt Bernier is a betting analyst for NBC Sports and host of "The Matt Bernier Show" podcast. His work has been showcased in the Daily Racing Form, on ESPN, as well as on TVG. Matt can be followed on Twitter @bernier_matt.