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Bernier's Best

NHL Projections and Bets for October 28

by Matt Bernier
Updated On: October 28, 2022, 1:31 pm ET

 

Six games are scheduled in the National Hockey League on Friday, including the rare afternoon contest locally between the Anaheim Ducks and Vegas Golden Knights.

Below you will find my projections for each of the six games on tap, as well as any wagers worth considering, with odds powered by PointsBet.

The percentages in parentheses next to the odds reflect the implied probability of the price listed.

Here is the results tally for this season:
24-23-0 (51.1%), +2.99 units

 

PROJECTIONS

 

ANAHEIM DUCKS at VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

ANA

+230

+189 (34.6%)

+1.5 (+100)

-140 (58.3%)

O6.5 (+100)

-113 (53.1%)

+290

+266 (27.4%)

VEG

-291

-189 (65.4%)

-1.5 (-121)

 +140 (41.7%)

U6.5 (-121)

+113 (46.9%)

-171

-138 (57.9%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+380

+579 (14.7%)

 

COLORADO AVALANCHE at NEW JERSEY DEVILS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

COL

-131

+105 (48.7%)

-1.5 (+180)

+259 (27.8%)

O6.5 (-125)

-117 (53.9%)

+110

+141 (41.4%)

NJD

+110

-105 (51.3%)

+1.5 (-221)

-259 (72.2%)

U6.5 (+105)

+117 (46.1%)

+150

+127 (44%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+350

+586 (14.6%)

 

NEW YORK ISLANDERS at CAROLINA HURRICANES

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

NYI

+165

+166 (35.1%)

+1.5 (-165)

-171 (63.1%)

O6 (+105)

+138 (42%)

+220

+249 (28.7%)

CAR

-200

-166 (62.4%)

+1.5 (+140)

+171 (36.9%)

U6 (-125)

-138 (58%)

-125

-115 (53.5%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+340

+462 (17.8%)

 

BOSTON BRUINS at COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

BOS

-145

-168 (62.6%)

-1.5 (+170)

+150 (40%)

O6.5 (-110)

-127 (55.9%)

+100

-123 (55.1%)

CBJ

+125

+168 (37.3%)

+1.5 (-206)

-150 (60%)

U6.5 (-110)

+127 (44.1%)

+170

+234 (29.9%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+340

+570 (14.9%)

 

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS at VANCOUVER CANUCKS

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

PIT

-180

-123 (55.2%)

-1.5 (+150)

+231 (30.2%)

O6.5 (-105)

+112 (47.1%)

-121

+114 (46.8%)

VAN

+150

+123 (44.8%)

+1.5 (-180)

-231 (69.8%)

U6.5 (-115)

-112 (52.9%)

+200

+175 (36.3%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+350

+493 (16.9%)

 

WINNIPEG JETS at ARIZONA COYOTES

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

WPG

-155

-233 (70%)

-1.5 (+160)

+117 (46.1%)

O6.5 (-125)

+101 (49.7%)

-105

-166 (62.5%)

ARI

+130

+233 (30%)

+1.5 (-196)

-117 (53.9%)

U6.5 (+105)

-101 (50.3%)

+175

+343 (22.5%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+350

+567 (15%)

 

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BETS

 

  • While it does appear that there's some value in playing the UNDER in the contest between Anaheim and Vegas, I would stay away from the game entirely. You couldn't pay me to bet on a professional hockey game that's going to start at 3 PM local time.
  • New Jersey has been one of the best teams in the National Hockey League in terms of 5-on-5 play this season, indicating that this young Devils team is on the cusp of becoming a problem in the Eastern Conference. Arguably the only thing holding them back from being a problem immediately is goaltending, which (among other things) has plagued the Devils each of the past two years. Vitek Vanecek gets the call tonight against the Colorado Avalanche, and while this could be cause for pause, it's worth noting Colorado begins the first half of back-to-backs this evening with Pavel Francouz between the pipes. Francouz got torched by Calgary in his seasonal debut before bouncing back with a solid showing against the Kraken last week, but he's far from a slam dunk in a spot like this. I'm hopeful Colorado takes their eye off the ball for a split second and is preoccupied by tomorrow night's game on Long Island against the Islanders. If this happens, there's no reason the Devils can't get the job done in front of the home fans at Prudential Center. The Devils' reverse puck line odds of +280 are worth a sprinkle, too.
  • Boston took care of business rather easily at TD Garden last night against the Detroit Red Wings, scoring three goals in a span of less than two minutes early in the third period and pulling away to a 5-1 victory. The Bruins continue to roll along, looking like a well-oiled machine. Now, playing the second half of back-to-backs tonight in Columbus, Jim Montgomery's team will turn to #1 netminder Linus Ullmark who will look to build upon his electric start. Ullmark is 5-0-0 with a save percentage of .936 this season, and four of his five starts have been deemed quality starts (starts where the save percentage is greater than the average save percentage on the season, per hockey-reference.com). Assuming the veterans don't feel the effects of playing for the second consecutive day, Boston should be able to take care of the Blue Jackets in regulation time this evening.
  • There could be a play on the Jets tonight against the Coyotes, but Winnipeg is playing their second game in as many days and the two teams will be playing at Arizona's home rink for the first time. I have no idea if 5,000-seat Mullett Arena, on the campus of Arizona State University, is going to help or hurt the Coyotes. Until there's some data to draw conclusions from, I'm likely to avoid all games where Arizona is a home team.

 

 

THE PLAYS:

  • COLORADO AVALANCHE at NEW JERSEY DEVILS – Devils ML (+110)
  • COLORADO AVALANCHE at NEW JERSEY DEVILS – Devils -1.5 (+280)
  • BOSTON BRUINS at COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS – Bruins 3-way ML (+100)

 

 

Matt Bernier

Matt Bernier is a betting analyst for NBC Sports and host of "The Matt Bernier Show" podcast. His work has been showcased in the Daily Racing Form, on ESPN, as well as on TVG. Matt can be followed on Twitter @bernier_matt.