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Adrian Kempe
Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports
Bernier's Best

NHL Projections and Bets for October 31

by Matt Bernier
Updated On: October 31, 2022, 2:16 pm ET

 

A quiet three-game Monday kicks off the week in the National Hockey League, with the Red Wings taking on the Sabres in Buffalo, the Caps taking on the Canes in Raleigh, and the Kings taking on the Blues in St. Louis.

Below you will find my projections for each of these games, as well as any wagers worth considering, with odds powered by PointsBet.

The percentages in parentheses next to the odds reflect the implied probability of the price listed.

Here is the results tally for this season:
26-24-0 (52%), +4.09 units

 

PROJECTIONS

 

DETROIT RED WINGS at BUFFALO SABRES

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

DET

+130

-101 (50.3%)

+1.5 (-206)

-256 (71.9%)

O6.5 (-121)

+104 (49%)

+175

+112 (47.2%)

BUF

-155

+101 (49.7%)

-1.5 (+170)

 +256 (28.1%)

U6.5 (+100)

-104 (51%)

-105

+164 (37.9%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+350

+571 (14.9%)

 

WASHINGTON CAPITALS @ CAROLINA HURRICANES

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

WSH

+155

+141 (41.5%)

+1.5 (-176)

-186 (65%)

O6 (-115)

+101 (49.8%)

+210

+202 (33.1%)

CAR

-186

-141 (58.5%)

-1.5 (+145)

+186 (35%)

U6 (-105)

+199 (33.4%)

-121

+100 (50%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+340

+491 (16.9%)

 

LOS ANGELES KINGS at ST. LOUIS BLUES

 

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

LAK

+100

-105 (51.2%)

+1.5 (-236)

-293 (74.5%)

O6 (-105)

+142 (41.3%)

+145

+138 (42.1%)

STL

-121

+105 (48.8%)

+1.5 (+190)

+293 (25.5%)

U6 (-115)

+140 (41.6%)

+120

+152 (39.7%)

TIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

+320

+449 (18.2%)

 

 

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BETS

 

  • Los Angeles seemingly plays in nothing but high scoring contests, with nine of their ten games on the season seeing at least six goals scored between themselves and their opponent. St. Louis had received outstanding goaltending during the first couple of weeks this year, helping to hide the surprising fact that the Blues have been rather terrible – particularly in 5-on-5 play (fifth worst Corsi for % in the league; 44.8%). The stellar work from their netminders has begun to wear off a bit, however, as the Blues enter tonight's contest as losers of four-straight. More importantly, St. Louis has yielded twenty goals over this four-game stretch, indicating the tides may have turned (and not in a good way). My numbers suggest the total lands on six goals 17.1% of the time, making OVER six an unappealing wager given the prices offered. Buying the total down to 5.5 unlocks some value, though. OVER 5.5 comes in 58.4% of the time, making the -125 available at PointsBet (and a few other books) appealing.

 

 

THE PLAYS:

  • LOS ANGELES KINGS at ST. LOUIS BLUES – Alt. Total O5.5 Goals (-125)

 

 

Matt Bernier

Matt Bernier is a betting analyst for NBC Sports and host of "The Matt Bernier Show" podcast. His work has been showcased in the Daily Racing Form, on ESPN, as well as on TVG. Matt can be followed on Twitter @bernier_matt.