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Key Betting Numbers: Cardinals vs. Browns

by NBC Sports EDGE Staff
Updated On: October 13, 2021, 4:56 pm ET

When assessing which NFL wagers to lock in before kickoff, sharp bettors always draw from historical data and trends to inform a winning strategy. Too often the public gets carried away with recent results from the past few weeks and ignores sustained, long-term themes that can illustrate an edge for a given key betting number. Key numbers consist of frequent margins of victory (spread) and combined scores (Total) when NFL games end. The idea is to avoid betting on either side of these numbers, as spreads and Totals a half-point above or below are more optimal considering there's no chance of a push if the game ends right on the key number. Scouring the internet for this kind of actionable information can be a challenging task, but we have you covered with a handy tool that will surely help you get a leg up when evaluating the NFL betting landscape.

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Today, we're taking a look at what we can draw from the key numbers when assessing proper betting strategy for the Arizona Cardinals-Cleveland Browns marquee Week 6 matchup. The Key Numbers tool synthesizes the score margins and game totals from historical data, relaying how many games have finished at a key number for either or both teams. We'll be using results from the past two seasons to analyze whether the current spread or Total are worth betting ahead of kickoff. Check it out: 

Key Numbers: NFL Week 6

Arizona Cardinals vs. Cleveland Browns (-3) | Total: 49.5

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When cross-examining the lines set for Cardinals-Browns with the two teams' historical key number trends, we can extrapolate whether the spread or Total has actionable value. Important to note here is the Key Numbers listed on the left side are not betting-related, but rather the actual results in margin and score for both Arizona and Cleveland over the past two seasons. The margin of victory for these two teams has fallen on the key number of three points 14.3% of the time, and roughly 11.9% of the time it has landed on two or four points. Therefore, the key number of three points has real historical relevance for these two teams, and it may be unwise to bank on the spread and the game resulting in a two or four-point margin if you take Arizona or Cleveland ATS.

While the bet could still hit, it has far less value than what the Total offers. Set at 49.5, it is worth taking a wager on the Over or Under in this contest, as the Key Numbers tool demonstrates only twice either of these two teams has finished a game with a combined score of 49 points. By taking either the Over or Under, you ensure a result for the given wager rather than ending up with a frustrating push once the final whistle blows.

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