Beyond the Box Score

2019 Expected Fantasy Points - WR

by Hayden Winks

January 14, 2020, 10:42 am ET

Updated On: January 16, 2020, 12:21 pm ET

In my “Targets Aren’t Created Equal” column, I highlighted different variables that affect fantasy pass catchers, including depth of target, location to the sideline, yards to the end zone, etc. I used these factors to build expected fantasy points models using @nflscrapR’s play-by-play data. This column will find receivers who performed better or worse than they should have based on their usage, and what that means for 2020 fantasy football drafts.

Top 100 WRs in Expected Fantasy Points Per Game

"PPR Per Game" is fantasy points per game. "Expected PPR" is my model's expected fantasy points based on their usage and other variables. "PPR +/-" is the difference between the two, with a positive score indicating a player overperformed relative to his usage. You can look at PPR +/- as a regression candidate tool or as a tool of "this receiver is just really good."

Rank	Receiver	PPR Per Game	Expected PPR	PPR +/-
1	Michael Thomas	23.3	18.9	4.4
2	Davante Adams	17.6	18.3	-0.7
3	Julio Jones	18.3	18.0	0.2
4	DeAndre Hopkins	17.5	17.6	-0.1
5	Mike Evans	18.2	16.9	1.3
6	Julian Edelman	16.2	16.5	-0.3
7	Allen Robinson	15.9	16.4	-0.5
8	Keenan Allen	16.2	15.8	0.4
9	D.J. Moore	15.2	15.2	0.0
10	Tyler Boyd	14.4	15.1	-0.7
11	Robert Woods	14.8	15.0	-0.2
12	Chris Godwin	19.5	14.9	4.6
13	Jarvis Landry	15.2	14.6	0.6
14	DeVante Parker	15.8	14.5	1.3
15	Sterling Shepard	13.3	14.4	-1.1
16	Odell Beckham	12.6	14.3	-1.7
17	Cooper Kupp	16.9	14.3	2.6
18	Michael Gallup	15.0	14.0	1.0
19	John Brown	14.3	13.9	0.4
20	Christian Kirk	12.1	13.8	-1.7
21	Preston Williams	11.6	13.6	-2.0
22	D.J. Chark	14.8	13.6	1.2
23	Courtland Sutton	13.7	13.4	0.3
24	Kenny Golladay	15.6	13.3	2.3
25	Tyreek Hill	15.5	13.1	2.4
26	Golden Tate	13.8	13.0	0.8
27	Amari Cooper	15.4	13.0	2.4
28	Alshon Jeffery	11.6	12.7	-1.1
29	Calvin Ridley	14.7	12.7	2.0
30	Marvin Jones	14.9	12.6	2.3
31	Tyler Lockett	14.7	12.5	2.2
32	Jamison Crowder	12.3	12.5	-0.2
33	John Ross	12.1	12.5	-0.4
34	Terry McLaurin	13.7	12.5	1.2
35	Curtis Samuel	9.5	11.7	-2.1
36	Cole Beasley	12.5	11.6	0.9
37	Mike Williams	10.7	11.4	-0.7
38	Will Fuller	12.2	11.4	0.8
39	Stefon Diggs	14.1	11.4	2.7
40	Auden Tate	9.1	11.4	-2.3
41	DK Metcalf	12.3	11.2	1.0
42	T.Y. Hilton	12.5	11.0	1.5
43	Larry Fitzgerald	12.0	11.0	1.0
44	Sammy Watkins	9.8	10.8	-1.0
45	Nelson Agholor	8.5	10.7	-2.2
46	Danny Amendola	9.5	10.7	-1.2
47	Dede Westbrook	10.0	10.6	-0.6
48	Robby Anderson	9.9	10.5	-0.6
49	Darius Slayton	12.0	10.3	1.7
50	Chris Conley	9.7	10.2	-0.6
51	Mohamed Sanu	8.2	10.1	-1.9
52	Emmanuel Sanders	10.8	10.0	0.7
53	JuJu Smith-Schuster	9.6	9.5	0.1
54	Randall Cobb	10.4	9.5	0.9
55	James Washington	9.0	9.4	-0.4
56	Greg Ward	8.5	9.4	-0.9
57	Hunter Renfrow	10.3	9.3	1.0
58	Marquise Brown	10.5	9.3	1.2
59	Diontae Johnson	9.8	9.2	0.6
60	Anthony Miller	8.1	9.2	-1.1
61	A.J. Brown	12.8	9.2	3.7
62	Deebo Samuel	10.3	9.1	1.3
63	Brandin Cooks	8.0	9.1	-1.0
64	Demaryius Thomas	7.9	8.9	-1.0
65	Breshad Perriman	10.2	8.8	1.3
66	Taylor Gabriel	9.8	8.7	1.1
67	Tyrell Williams	11.1	8.5	2.5
68	Adam Thielen	10.6	8.0	2.6
69	Corey Davis	7.7	7.9	-0.2
70	Alex Erickson	6.4	7.9	-1.5
71	Russell Gage	6.2	7.9	-1.6
72	Albert Wilson	6.5	7.7	-1.2
73	Zach Pascal	8.6	7.7	0.9
74	Bennie Fowler	5.3	7.7	-2.4
75	Isaiah Ford	5.9	7.6	-1.7
76	Josh Gordon	6.9	7.5	-0.6
77	Marcus Johnson	7.1	7.4	-0.3
78	Kenny Stills	9.2	7.3	1.9
79	Paul Richardson	6.5	7.0	-0.5
80	Phillip Dorsett	7.1	6.8	0.2
81	KeeSean Johnson	4.6	6.8	-2.2
82	Damiere Byrd	6.6	6.8	-0.1
83	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	5.2	6.7	-1.5
84	Keke Coutee	5.9	6.6	-0.7
85	Tim Patrick	4.7	6.6	-1.9
86	Trey Quinn	4.8	6.5	-1.7
87	Ted Ginn	5.3	6.5	-1.2
88	Adam Humphries	6.9	6.3	0.6
89	Demarcus Robinson	6.3	6.0	0.3
90	Jarius Wright	3.6	6.0	-2.4
91	Allen Lazard	6.3	6.0	0.3
92	Geronimo Allison	4.7	5.9	-1.2
93	Allen Hurns	6.1	5.9	0.3
94	Parris Campbell	5.2	5.8	-0.6
95	Jakeem Grant	3.5	5.8	-2.3
96	Steven Sims	5.6	5.8	-0.2
97	N'Keal Harry	4.9	5.7	-0.7
98	Travis Benjamin	1.8	5.6	-3.8
99	DaeSean Hamilton	4.0	5.5	-1.6
100	Zay Jones	3.2	5.2	-2.0

The first thing to note is how much injuries affect end-of-year data. Some WRs who undoubtedly would have been higher on the above rankings if they were healthy are Tyreek Hill (25th), Amari Cooper (27th), Will Fuller (38th), T.Y. Hilton (42nd), JuJu Smith-Schuster (53rd), Marquise Brown (58th), and Adam Thielen (68th). All of these guys could come at discounts in 2020 fantasy drafts, but I’d only draft them if they were healthy in training camp/preseason.

Another group of receivers who were ranked lower than where they should be ranked ahead of 2020 fantasy drafts are the receivers who earned bigger roles towards the end of the season. Some examples are DK Metcalf (41st), Anthony Miller (60th), A.J. Brown (61st), and Deebo Samuel (62nd). Remind me to buy rookies and second-year players after a few weeks of the season next year.

Top 25 WRs in Expected Fantasy Points Per Game Over Expected

Rank	Receiver	PPR Per Game	Expected PPR	PPR +/-
1	Chris Godwin	19.5	14.9	4.6
2	Michael Thomas	23.3	18.9	4.4
3	A.J. Brown	12.8	9.2	3.7
4	Mecole Hardman	7.2	4.5	2.8
5	Tre'Quan Smith	6.5	3.8	2.7
6	Stefon Diggs	14.1	11.4	2.7
7	Cooper Kupp	16.9	14.3	2.6
8	Adam Thielen	10.6	8.0	2.6
9	Tyrell Williams	11.1	8.5	2.5
10	Amari Cooper	15.4	13.0	2.4
11	Tyreek Hill	15.5	13.1	2.4
12	Marvin Jones	14.9	12.6	2.3
13	Kenny Golladay	15.6	13.3	2.3
14	Tyler Lockett	14.7	12.5	2.2
15	Calvin Ridley	14.7	12.7	2.0
16	Kenny Stills	9.2	7.3	1.9
17	Marvin Hall	4.3	2.5	1.8
18	Darius Slayton	12.0	10.3	1.7
19	T.Y. Hilton	12.5	11.0	1.5
20	Tajae Sharpe	5.5	4.0	1.4
21	Breshad Perriman	10.2	8.8	1.3
22	Mike Evans	18.2	16.9	1.3
23	DeVante Parker	15.8	14.5	1.3
24	Deebo Samuel	10.3	9.1	1.3
25	Terry McLaurin	13.7	12.5	1.2

These receivers were absolute studs in 2019, at least in terms of efficiency. Chris Godwin (+4.6 PPR points above expected), Michael Thomas (+4.4), and A.J. Brown (+3.7) were head and shoulders above all over receivers in this performance record, mostly because they are studs but partially due to being lucky. All three played at unsustainable efficiency rates in 2019, so we should expect them to slightly regress next season. With that said, Thomas can regress still finish as the 2020 WR1 overall with regression baked in, and Brown can combat regression with more volume.

Bottom 25 WRs in Fantasy Points (PPR) Over Expected

Rank	Receiver	PPR Per Game	Expected PPR	PPR +/-
1	Travis Benjamin	1.8	5.6	-3.8
2	Bennie Fowler	5.3	7.7	-2.4
3	Jarius Wright	3.6	6.0	-2.4
4	Auden Tate	9.1	11.4	-2.3
5	Jakeem Grant	3.5	5.8	-2.3
6	Robert Foster	0.7	3.0	-2.2
7	KeeSean Johnson	4.6	6.8	-2.2
8	Nelson Agholor	8.5	10.7	-2.2
9	Curtis Samuel	9.5	11.7	-2.1
10	Christian Blake	2.2	4.4	-2.1
11	Preston Williams	11.6	13.6	-2.0
12	Zay Jones	3.2	5.2	-2.0
13	Mohamed Sanu	8.2	10.1	-1.9
14	Tim Patrick	4.7	6.6	-1.9
15	Javon Wims	2.7	4.4	-1.8
16	Odell Beckham	12.6	14.3	-1.7
17	Christian Kirk	12.1	13.8	-1.7
18	Isaiah Ford	5.9	7.6	-1.7
19	Trey Quinn	4.8	6.5	-1.7
20	Chris Hogan	2.1	3.8	-1.7
21	Russell Gage	6.2	7.9	-1.6
22	Johnny Holton	0.3	1.9	-1.6
23	Tevin Jones	2.0	3.6	-1.6
24	Andre Patton	0.9	2.4	-1.6
25	DaeSean Hamilton	4.0	5.5	-1.6

Most of these receivers are considered the worst starting and rotational receivers in the NFL, but Curtis Samuel (8th), Mohamed Sanu (13th), Odell Beckham (16th), and Christian Kirk (17th) are/were legit fantasy options. What the hell do we do with these guys in 2020 fantasy drafts after an awful season? Well, it’s a case-by-case basis, but there is one thing these receivers have in common -- injuries. Sanu (ankle), Odell (groin), and Kirk (ankle) all played through injuries last season, which makes them potential buy lows in 2020 fantasy drafts if they prove to be healthy in training camp.

WR Only Charts

Deep targets are worth more fantasy points than underneath targets… at least until that steep decline at 45 yards downfield. The problem with deep targets is how volatile they are:

The deeper the target, the more PPR scoring variance. That’s because deeper targets are harder to catch and are worth more fantasy points than underneath passes. As a general rule of thumb, we should be buying receivers who haven’t hauled in their deep targets in recent weeks and sell the ones who have. I already posted my "Deep Target Report" that shows which players were the best/worst on their deep targets.

Slot receivers are typically catching passes between -3 and 12 yards from the line of scrimmage. That usually means they are low-variance, volume-based fantasy assets.

A target at the goal line is worth almost twice as many PPR points compared to a target at the 20-yard line. Red zone targets aren’t equal, so looking at them doesn’t give us the full story, especially because it ignores the 20-30 yard range that is still more valuable than other targets.

Targets in the middle of the field are far more valuable than targets near the sideline, so it’s important to note where receivers are targeted not only by their depth of target but also by where they are in relation to the sideline. Expect another Rotoworld column that will highlight the receivers who this affected the most (*cough* Curtis Samuel and Odell Beckham).

What's Next?

1. 2019 Deep Target Report - Expected vs. Actual PPR Points

2. 2019 Receiving TD Report - Expected vs. Actual TDs

3. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (WRs)

4. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (TEs)

5. 2019 Rushing TD Report - Expected vs. Actual TDs

6. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (RBs)

7. 2019 Passing TD Report - Expected vs. Actual TDs

8. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (QBs)

9. When to Pass and Run in the NFL

As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks) if you have questions or ideas on what to study next.