Beyond the Box Score

2019 Expected Rushing TDs

by Hayden Winks

April 30, 2020, 1:07 pm ET

Updated On: May 2, 2020, 3:47 pm ET

When it comes to fantasy running backs, there are three things we are chasing -- receptions, rushing volume, and goal-line work. The first two determine a running back’s fantasy floor, and the latter determines upside. What makes things tricky is the fact that touchdowns can be volatile, and that can create the allusion that more or fewer touchdowns are coming based on recent performance. That’s why it’s better to look at expected touchdowns compared to rushing touchdowns.

There are a few ways to spot outliers in the touchdown department. I’ve seen analysts compare touchdowns to carries. I’ve seen some compare touchdowns to rushing yards. But I took it up a notch and created a model to determine expected touchdowns. Why this is necessary is because how far away a running back is from the end zone largely correlates to rushing touchdown percentage (see chart above). This model knows that a goal-line carry is far more valuable than a carry from the 35-yard line, and looking at raw yards or carries doesn’t know the difference. Let's check out the results:

2019 Expected Rushing Touchdowns

A positive "TD+/-" means a player score more touchdowns than expected based on the yard lines of his carries last season, and a negative number means he scored fewer than expected.

Rank	Rusher	Rushing TDs	Expected TDs	TDs +/-
1	Ezekiel Elliott	12	12.3	-0.3
2	Nick Chubb	9	11.3	-2.3
3	Christian McCaffrey	15	11.3	3.7
4	Todd Gurley	12	10.9	1.1
5	Dalvin Cook	13	10.6	2.4
6	Derrick Henry	16	9.8	6.2
7	Mark Ingram	10	9.5	0.5
8	Sony Michel	7	9.3	-2.3
9	Joe Mixon	5	9.3	-4.3
10	Leonard Fournette	3	9.0	-6.0
11	Chris Carson	8	8.5	-0.5
12	Josh Jacobs	7	8.5	-1.5
13	David Montgomery	6	8.4	-2.4
14	Aaron Jones	16	8.3	7.7
15	Marlon Mack	8	8.2	-0.2
16	Melvin Gordon	8	7.3	0.7
17	Carlos Hyde	6	7.2	-1.2
18	Saquon Barkley	6	6.5	-0.5
19	Frank Gore	2	6.1	-4.1
20	Lamar Jackson	7	6.0	1.0
21	Damien Williams	9	6.0	3.0
22	Phillip Lindsay	7	5.9	1.1
23	Alvin Kamara	5	5.7	-0.7
24	Tevin Coleman	6	5.7	0.3
25	Miles Sanders	3	5.7	-2.7
26	Peyton Barber	6	5.5	0.5
27	Kerryon Johnson	4	5.2	-1.2
28	Kenyan Drake	8	5.1	2.9
29	Josh Allen	10	4.9	5.1
30	Royce Freeman	3	4.9	-1.9
31	Adrian Peterson	5	4.9	0.1
32	Jordan Howard	6	4.9	1.1
33	Latavius Murray	5	4.7	0.3
34	Alexander Mattison	1	4.6	-3.6
35	Gus Edwards	2	4.6	-2.6
36	Austin Ekeler	3	4.6	-1.6
37	Le’Veon Bell	3	4.5	-1.5
38	LeSean McCoy	4	4.3	-0.3
39	Ronald Jones	6	4.3	1.7
40	Benny Snell	2	4.2	-2.2
41	Jamaal Williams	2	3.9	-1.9
42	Kalen Ballage	3	3.9	-0.9
43	Devonta Freeman	2	3.7	-1.7
44	Malcolm Brown	5	3.7	1.3
45	Raheem Mostert	8	3.6	4.4
46	Deshaun Watson	7	3.4	3.6
47	DeAndre Washington	3	3.3	-0.3
48	Jeff Wilson	4	3.3	0.7
49	Devin Singletary	2	3.2	-1.2
50	James Conner	4	3.1	0.9
51	Ryan Fitzpatrick	4	3.1	0.9
52	Kyler Murray	4	3.1	0.9
53	Dak Prescott	3	2.9	0.1
54	Boston Scott	5	2.7	2.3
55	Qadree Ollison	4	2.7	1.3
56	James White	1	2.7	-1.7
57	Tom Brady	3	2.7	0.3
58	Jacoby Brissett	5	2.6	2.4
59	Jordan Wilkins	2	2.6	-0.6
60	Mike Boone	3	2.6	0.4
61	Duke Johnson	2	2.5	-0.5
62	David Johnson	2	2.5	-0.5
63	Carson Wentz	1	2.3	-1.3
64	Jared Goff	2	2.3	-0.3
65	Jaylen Samuels	1	2.2	-1.2
66	Russell Wilson	3	2.2	0.8
67	Dare Ogunbowale	2	2.2	-0.2
68	Nyheim Hines	2	2.1	-0.1
69	Brian Hill	2	2.1	-0.1
70	Rex Burkhead	3	2.0	1.0
71	Aaron Rodgers	1	2.0	-1.0
72	Ito Smith	1	1.9	-0.9
73	Giovani Bernard	0	1.9	-1.9
74	Rashaad Penny	3	1.9	1.1
75	Gardner Minshew	0	1.8	-1.8
76	Andy Dalton	4	1.8	2.2
77	Patrick Laird	1	1.8	-0.8
78	Jimmy Garoppolo	1	1.8	-0.8
79	Justice Hill	2	1.8	0.2
80	Jameis Winston	1	1.7	-0.7
81	Tyler Johnson	0	1.7	-1.7
82	Derrius Guice	2	1.6	0.4
83	Wayne Gallman	2	1.5	0.5
84	Darwin Thompson	1	1.5	-0.5
85	Baker Mayfield	3	1.5	1.5
86	Matt Breida	1	1.4	-0.4
87	Ryquell Armstead	0	1.4	-1.4
88	Tarik Cohen	0	1.4	-1.4
89	Mitchell Trubisky	2	1.4	0.6
90	Brandon Bolden	3	1.3	1.7
91	Bo Scarbrough	1	1.3	-0.3
92	Taysom Hill	1	1.2	-0.2
93	Sam Darnold	2	1.2	0.8
94	Patrick Mahomes	2	1.2	0.8
95	Teddy Bridgewater	0	1.2	-1.2
96	Chris Thompson	0	1.2	-1.2
97	Kyle Allen	2	1.2	0.8
98	Dontrell Hilliard	2	1.2	0.8
99	Myles Gaskin	1	1.2	-0.2
100	Ryan Tannehill	4	1.1	2.9
101	Daniel Jones	2	1.1	0.9
102	Derek Carr	2	1.0	1.0
103	Kareem Hunt	2	1.0	1.0
104	Chase Edmonds	4	1.0	3.0

2019 Touchdowns Over Expected Leaders

These players scored more touchdowns than expected, which means they are either 1) Barry Sanders or 2) negative regression candidates for 2020 if their workload isn’t expected to change.

Rank	Rusher	Rushing TDs	Expected TDs	TDs +/-
1	Aaron Jones	16	8.3	+7.7
2	Derrick Henry	16	9.8	+6.2
3	Josh Allen	10	4.9	+5.1
4	Raheem Mostert	8	3.6	+4.4
5	Christian McCaffrey	15	11.3	+3.7
6	Deshaun Watson	7	3.4	+3.6
7	Damien Williams	9	6.0	+3.0
8	Chase Edmonds	4	1.0	+3.0
9	Kenyan Drake	8	5.1	+2.9
10	Ryan Tannehill	4	1.1	+2.9
11	Dalvin Cook	13	10.6	+2.4
12	Jacoby Brissett	5	2.6	+2.4
13	Boston Scott	5	2.7	+2.3
14	Andy Dalton	4	1.8	+2.2
15	Ronald Jones	6	4.3	+1.7

2019 Touchdowns Under Expected Leaders

These players scored fewer touchdowns than expected, which means they are either 1) very dusty or 2) positive regression candidates for 2020 if their workload isn’t expected to change.

Rank	Rusher	Rushing TDs	Expected TDs	TDs +/-
1	Leonard Fournette	3	9.0	-6.0
2	Joe Mixon	5	9.3	-4.3
3	Frank Gore	2	6.1	-4.1
4	Alexander Mattison	1	4.6	-3.6
5	Miles Sanders	3	5.7	-2.7
6	Gus Edwards	2	4.6	-2.6
7	David Montgomery	6	8.4	-2.4
8	Nick Chubb	9	11.3	-2.3
9	Sony Michel	7	9.3	-2.3
10	Benny Snell	2	4.2	-2.2
11	Royce Freeman	3	4.9	-1.9
12	Jamaal Williams	2	3.9	-1.9
13	Giovani Bernard	0	1.9	-1.9
14	Gardner Minshew	0	1.8	-1.8
15	Devonta Freeman	2	3.7	-1.7
16	James White	1	2.7	-1.7
17	Ty Johnson	0	1.7	-1.7
18	Austin Ekeler	3	4.6	-1.6
19	Josh Jacobs	7	8.5	-1.5
20	Le’Veon Bell	3	4.5	-1.5

Fantasy Football Content

1. Free Agency Winners and Losers

2. 2019 Rushing Efficiency Rankings

3. 2019 Receiving Efficiency Rankings

4. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (WR)

5. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (TE)

6. 2019 Deep Target Efficiency Rankings

7. 2019 Expected Receiving TD Rankings

8. NFL Depth Charts - QB, RB, WR, TE