There were 199 players with at least 30 targets last season. Here’s how they ranked in the following four efficiency metrics: "EPA per Target" - analyzes the real-football value of a target using expected points added, "Success Rate" - how often a target improves his team’s winning percentage, "PPR Fantasy Points per Target" - it underestimates the randomness of TDs but is useful, and "Yards per Target" - the quickest and easiest way to measure receiver efficiency.
Let’s break down A.J. Brown’s efficiency profile as an example of how to use each stat. Brown was sixth in EPA per Target (+0.64), fourth in PPR Fantasy Points per Target (2.5), and second in Yards per Target (12.7) among players with at least 30 targets last season. Obviously, he was insanely efficient on his targets, but we should point out that his Success Rate (54%) was 63rd out of 199 players. That’s still good! But it does show us that his efficiency numbers last year were overinflated by big plays, which means we can confidently project Brown to be less efficient in 2020. Will he still be efficient? Yes. Will he be more productive because he’ll be targeted more? Probably yes, but knocking that yards per target projection down from 12.7 to 8.5-9.5 is necessary for those building player projections. The same can be said for a player like Mecole Hardman, who was second in EPA per Target (0.90) and 48th in Success Rate (56%).
Player | Team | EPA/Target | Success Rate | PPR/Target | Yards/Target | Targets |
T.Sharpe | TEN | 1.00 (1) | 68% (2) | 2.4 (6) | 9.7 (21) | 34 (184) |
M.Hardman | KC | 0.90 (2) | 56% (48) | 2.8 (1) | 13.1 (1) | 41 (160) |
C.Godwin | TB | 0.70 (3) | 63% (11) | 2.3 (9) | 11.0 (5) | 121 (20) |
M.Jones | DET | 0.68 (4) | 65% (4) | 2.5 (3) | 9.9 (15) | 66 (88) |
H.Hurst | BAL | 0.65 (5) | 62% (15) | 2.0 (38) | 8.9 (38) | 39 (170) |
A.Brown | TEN | 0.62 (6) | 54% (63) | 2.5 (4) | 12.7 (2) | 83 (61) |
M.Thomas | NO | 0.62 (6) | 69% (1) | 2.0 (32) | 9.3 (28) | 184 (1) |
K.Cole | JAX | 0.58 (8) | 56% (53) | 2.2 (17) | 10.0 (10) | 36 (177) |
S.Diggs | MIN | 0.56 (9) | 56% (52) | 2.2 (12) | 11.9 (3) | 95 (42) |
K.Bourne | SF | 0.56 (9) | 59% (27) | 2.1 (24) | 7.8 (77) | 46 (138) |
T.Hill | KC | 0.55 (11) | 58% (29) | 2.1 (23) | 9.7 (22) | 89 (52) |
J.Cook | NO | 0.55 (11) | 63% (9) | 2.6 (2) | 10.8 (6) | 65 (89) |
A.Lazard | GB | 0.55 (11) | 60% (21) | 1.9 (42) | 9.2 (34) | 52 (119) |
K.Rudolph | MIN | 0.55 (11) | 67% (3) | 2.3 (8) | 7.5 (87) | 49 (127) |
T.Lockett | SEA | 0.55 (11) | 63% (10) | 2.1 (21) | 9.5 (24) | 111 (28) |
G.Kittle | SF | 0.55 (11) | 61% (17) | 2.1 (28) | 9.8 (16) | 107 (32) |
C.Ridley | ATL | 0.54 (17) | 59% (25) | 2.0 (33) | 9.1 (35) | 95 (42) |
K.Stills | HOU | 0.54 (17) | 58% (32) | 2.2 (16) | 10.2 (8) | 55 (111) |
C.Kupp | LAR | 0.54 (17) | 53% (74) | 2.0 (34) | 8.7 (47) | 134 (14) |
T.Williams | OAK | 0.53 (20) | 59% (26) | 2.5 (5) | 10.3 (7) | 63 (92) |
D.Fells | HOU | 0.52 (21) | 58% (30) | 2.3 (7) | 7.1 (114) | 48 (129) |
T.McLaurin | WAS | 0.51 (22) | 55% (56) | 2.0 (29) | 9.8 (19) | 94 (47) |
D.Samuel | SF | 0.50 (23) | 56% (53) | 1.9 (45) | 9.9 (14) | 81 (64) |
C.Davis | TEN | 0.50 (23) | 58% (33) | 1.7 (100) | 8.7 (44) | 69 (82) |
T.Kelce | KC | 0.50 (23) | 61% (16) | 1.9 (52) | 9.3 (30) | 135 (12) |
J.Conner | PIT | 0.49 (26) | 63% (8) | 2.0 (31) | 6.6 (138) | 38 (173) |
W.Fuller | HOU | 0.48 (27) | 60% (19) | 1.9 (47) | 9.6 (23) | 70 (80) |
A.Cooper | DAL | 0.48 (27) | 62% (14) | 2.1 (25) | 10.0 (11) | 119 (22) |
R.Griffin | NYJ | 0.47 (29) | 56% (51) | 2.2 (11) | 7.5 (92) | 43 (149) |
M.Andrews | BAL | 0.46 (30) | 52% (80) | 2.1 (20) | 8.7 (45) | 98 (39) |
A.Thielen | MIN | 0.46 (30) | 51% (87) | 2.2 (10) | 8.6 (50) | 47 (134) |
S.Roberts | BAL | 0.46 (30) | 57% (39) | 1.7 (84) | 7.7 (80) | 35 (181) |
J.Jones | ATL | 0.46 (30) | 54% (60) | 1.7 (81) | 8.8 (41) | 158 (2) |
C.Sutton | DEN | 0.46 (30) | 50% (97) | 1.8 (65) | 9.0 (37) | 123 (18) |
D.Parker | MIA | 0.44 (35) | 52% (78) | 2.0 (39) | 9.4 (26) | 128 (15) |
J.Brown | BUF | 0.44 (35) | 56% (47) | 1.9 (50) | 9.3 (29) | 114 (26) |
D.Cook | MIN | 0.43 (37) | 54% (67) | 1.7 (102) | 8.2 (61) | 63 (92) |
P.Cooper | ARI | 0.43 (37) | 63% (12) | 1.7 (82) | 7.6 (85) | 32 (191) |
T.Hilton | IND | 0.42 (39) | 54% (68) | 1.9 (53) | 7.5 (93) | 67 (87) |
J.Smith | TEN | 0.42 (39) | 57% (43) | 2.2 (14) | 10.0 (12) | 44 (146) |
M.Gallup | DAL | 0.42 (39) | 56% (46) | 1.9 (49) | 9.8 (20) | 112 (27) |
A.Humphries | TEN | 0.41 (42) | 60% (22) | 1.8 (68) | 7.5 (91) | 47 (134) |
D.Waller | OAK | 0.41 (42) | 63% (7) | 2.0 (41) | 9.8 (18) | 117 (24) |
K.Golladay | DET | 0.41 (42) | 49% (108) | 2.1 (19) | 10.2 (9) | 117 (24) |
A.Ekeler | LAC | 0.41 (42) | 57% (37) | 2.2 (13) | 9.2 (31) | 108 (29) |
A.Hooper | ATL | 0.40 (46) | 63% (6) | 2.0 (37) | 8.1 (69) | 98 (39) |
B.Perriman | TB | 0.40 (46) | 48% (115) | 2.1 (26) | 9.3 (27) | 69 (82) |
D.Adams | GB | 0.40 (46) | 54% (61) | 1.7 (99) | 7.9 (76) | 127 (16) |
D.Slayton | NYG | 0.39 (49) | 49% (104) | 2.0 (36) | 8.7 (43) | 84 (59) |
H.Renfrow | OAK | 0.39 (49) | 54% (64) | 1.9 (54) | 8.5 (52) | 72 (75) |
M.Brown | BAL | 0.39 (49) | 45% (145) | 2.1 (27) | 8.2 (62) | 71 (77) |
T.Eifert | CIN | 0.39 (49) | 52% (82) | 1.6 (109) | 6.8 (125) | 64 (91) |
J.Williams | GB | 0.39 (49) | 60% (19) | 2.1 (22) | 5.6 (169) | 45 (141) |
B.Jarwin | DAL | 0.39 (49) | 55% (57) | 2.1 (18) | 9.1 (36) | 40 (166) |
D.Hopkins | HOU | 0.39 (49) | 57% (42) | 1.7 (79) | 7.7 (81) | 151 (5) |
H.Henry | LAC | 0.38 (56) | 65% (5) | 2.0 (30) | 8.5 (54) | 77 (69) |
C.McCaffrey | CAR | 0.38 (56) | 58% (34) | 1.7 (92) | 7.1 (116) | 142 (8) |
C.Conley | JAX | 0.36 (58) | 48% (111) | 1.7 (104) | 8.4 (58) | 93 (48) |
Z.Pascal | IND | 0.36 (58) | 54% (64) | 1.9 (46) | 8.5 (55) | 72 (75) |
A.Hurns | MIA | 0.36 (58) | 58% (30) | 1.8 (64) | 8.7 (46) | 48 (129) |
T.Higbee | LAR | 0.35 (61) | 60% (23) | 1.8 (60) | 8.2 (60) | 89 (52) |
Z.Ertz | PHI | 0.35 (61) | 53% (69) | 1.6 (117) | 6.8 (128) | 135 (12) |
M.Williams | LAC | 0.34 (63) | 52% (79) | 1.8 (61) | 11.1 (4) | 90 (51) |
R.Cobb | DAL | 0.34 (63) | 53% (73) | 1.9 (51) | 10.0 (13) | 83 (61) |
M.Sanu | ATL | 0.34 (63) | 57% (39) | 1.7 (98) | 7.5 (95) | 42 (158) |
O.Johnson | MIN | 0.33 (66) | 60% (18) | 1.8 (63) | 6.7 (132) | 43 (149) |
A.Robinson | CHI | 0.33 (66) | 57% (39) | 1.7 (106) | 7.4 (97) | 154 (3) |
D.Chark | JAX | 0.33 (66) | 49% (100) | 1.9 (55) | 8.4 (56) | 120 (21) |
M.Sanders | PHI | 0.32 (69) | 46% (134) | 1.9 (48) | 8.1 (67) | 63 (92) |
T.Gabriel | CHI | 0.31 (70) | 50% (92) | 1.8 (56) | 7.4 (104) | 48 (129) |
J.White | NE | 0.30 (71) | 42% (169) | 1.8 (77) | 6.8 (130) | 95 (42) |
K.Allen | LAC | 0.30 (71) | 56% (45) | 1.7 (78) | 8.0 (70) | 149 (6) |
M.Evans | TB | 0.30 (71) | 58% (35) | 2.0 (35) | 9.8 (17) | 118 (23) |
D.Johnson | PIT | 0.29 (74) | 48% (115) | 1.7 (85) | 7.4 (99) | 92 (49) |
E.Sanders | SF | 0.29 (74) | 53% (75) | 2.0 (40) | 9.5 (25) | 53 (118) |
D.Byrd | ARI | 0.29 (74) | 47% (126) | 1.6 (114) | 8.0 (73) | 45 (141) |
G.Ward | PHI | 0.29 (74) | 63% (12) | 1.5 (151) | 6.4 (145) | 40 (166) |
I.McKenzie | BUF | 0.29 (74) | 51% (84) | 1.5 (145) | 6.5 (140) | 39 (170) |
K.Hunt | CLE | 0.28 (79) | 49% (101) | 1.6 (121) | 6.3 (146) | 45 (141) |
J.Graham | GB | 0.27 (80) | 47% (126) | 1.7 (97) | 7.5 (96) | 60 (97) |
J.Akins | HOU | 0.27 (80) | 47% (120) | 1.6 (110) | 7.6 (84) | 55 (111) |
J.Ross III | CIN | 0.27 (80) | 42% (165) | 1.8 (72) | 9.2 (32) | 52 (119) |
I.Smith | MIN | 0.27 (80) | 47% (125) | 1.7 (94) | 6.6 (136) | 47 (134) |
J.Meyers | NE | 0.27 (80) | 49% (105) | 1.5 (143) | 8.8 (42) | 41 (160) |
D.Moore | SEA | 0.27 (80) | 47% (124) | 1.7 (80) | 8.9 (39) | 34 (184) |
D.Moore | CAR | 0.26 (86) | 56% (50) | 1.7 (96) | 8.6 (49) | 136 (11) |
DK.Metcalf | SEA | 0.25 (87) | 50% (92) | 1.9 (44) | 8.8 (40) | 102 (37) |
D.Amendola | DET | 0.24 (88) | 53% (77) | 1.5 (147) | 7.1 (112) | 95 (42) |
K.Smith | NYG | 0.24 (88) | 47% (130) | 1.8 (73) | 6.2 (148) | 43 (149) |
J.Gordon | NE | 0.24 (88) | 39% (180) | 1.5 (137) | 8.0 (72) | 36 (177) |
A.Miller | CHI | 0.23 (91) | 51% (90) | 1.5 (135) | 7.7 (83) | 85 (56) |
B.Cooks | LAR | 0.23 (91) | 49% (99) | 1.5 (133) | 8.0 (71) | 73 (72) |
D.Robinson | KC | 0.23 (91) | 53% (76) | 1.8 (57) | 8.2 (64) | 55 (111) |
C.Latimer | NYG | 0.23 (91) | 49% (105) | 1.6 (129) | 7.1 (115) | 41 (160) |
P.Dorsett | NE | 0.22 (95) | 41% (174) | 1.8 (58) | 6.8 (127) | 51 (123) |
N.Boyle | BAL | 0.22 (95) | 59% (24) | 1.7 (88) | 7.3 (107) | 44 (146) |
J.Richard | OAK | 0.22 (95) | 47% (130) | 1.6 (122) | 7.5 (90) | 43 (149) |
J.Witten | DAL | 0.21 (98) | 56% (44) | 1.6 (107) | 6.2 (147) | 85 (56) |
G.Olsen | CAR | 0.21 (98) | 51% (85) | 1.6 (123) | 7.3 (108) | 82 (63) |
T.Patrick | DEN | 0.21 (98) | 48% (111) | 1.2 (189) | 7.0 (118) | 31 (193) |
S.Watkins | KC | 0.20 (101) | 44% (159) | 1.5 (142) | 7.4 (100) | 91 (50) |
Dam.Williams | KC | 0.20 (101) | 49% (110) | 1.7 (86) | 5.8 (164) | 37 (175) |
M.Johnson | IND | 0.20 (101) | 45% (141) | 1.7 (83) | 8.4 (57) | 33 (188) |
T.Hockenson | DET | 0.19 (104) | 46% (138) | 1.4 (173) | 6.2 (149) | 59 (100) |
J.Mixon | CIN | 0.19 (104) | 49% (101) | 1.8 (59) | 6.4 (144) | 45 (141) |
J.Edelman | NE | 0.19 (104) | 53% (70) | 1.7 (89) | 7.4 (103) | 152 (4) |
G.Tate | NYG | 0.18 (107) | 46% (137) | 1.8 (62) | 7.9 (74) | 85 (56) |
J.Washington | PIT | 0.18 (107) | 48% (118) | 1.7 (91) | 9.2 (33) | 80 (65) |
D.Thomas | NYJ | 0.18 (107) | 50% (92) | 1.5 (158) | 7.5 (94) | 58 (103) |
O.Howard | TB | 0.18 (107) | 57% (37) | 1.6 (119) | 8.5 (53) | 54 (116) |
B.Fowler | NYG | 0.18 (107) | 51% (83) | 1.1 (191) | 5.3 (179) | 37 (175) |
P.Laird | MIA | 0.18 (107) | 52% (81) | 1.4 (169) | 6.6 (134) | 31 (193) |
D.Johnson | HOU | 0.17 (113) | 53% (71) | 1.7 (105) | 6.6 (137) | 62 (95) |
K.Harmon | WAS | 0.17 (113) | 45% (141) | 1.5 (141) | 8.3 (59) | 44 (146) |
C.Brate | TB | 0.16 (115) | 51% (89) | 1.8 (71) | 5.7 (168) | 55 (111) |
J.Hill | NO | 0.16 (115) | 44% (155) | 1.9 (43) | 6.6 (133) | 34 (184) |
L.Bell | NYJ | 0.15 (117) | 49% (108) | 1.5 (138) | 5.9 (155) | 78 (66) |
R.Gage | ATL | 0.15 (117) | 47% (119) | 1.3 (179) | 6.0 (152) | 74 (70) |
A.Jones | GB | 0.15 (117) | 44% (155) | 1.7 (95) | 7.0 (121) | 68 (85) |
D.Knox | BUF | 0.15 (117) | 46% (135) | 1.6 (126) | 7.8 (79) | 50 (124) |
C.Uzomah | CIN | 0.15 (117) | 49% (105) | 1.5 (132) | 5.9 (159) | 41 (160) |
R.Woods | LAR | 0.15 (117) | 50% (91) | 1.6 (118) | 8.2 (65) | 139 (9) |
C.Kirk | ARI | 0.15 (117) | 47% (123) | 1.5 (162) | 6.6 (139) | 108 (29) |
C.Beasley | BUF | 0.15 (117) | 55% (59) | 1.8 (70) | 7.4 (101) | 106 (33) |
A.Tate | CIN | 0.14 (125) | 42% (165) | 1.4 (170) | 7.4 (102) | 78 (66) |
T.Ginn | NO | 0.14 (125) | 41% (175) | 1.5 (144) | 7.5 (88) | 56 (107) |
D.Johnson | HOU | 0.14 (125) | 53% (72) | 2.2 (15) | 7.9 (75) | 47 (134) |
C.Carson | SEA | 0.14 (125) | 46% (140) | 1.6 (108) | 5.8 (163) | 46 (138) |
De.Walker | TEN | 0.14 (125) | 48% (111) | 1.8 (74) | 6.9 (122) | 31 (193) |
L.Fitzgerald | ARI | 0.14 (125) | 51% (88) | 1.8 (66) | 7.4 (98) | 108 (29) |
J.Landry | CLE | 0.13 (131) | 51% (86) | 1.8 (69) | 8.6 (51) | 137 (10) |
A.Kamara | NO | 0.12 (132) | 49% (98) | 1.4 (164) | 5.5 (172) | 97 (41) |
L.Murray | NO | 0.12 (132) | 44% (154) | 1.5 (154) | 5.5 (173) | 43 (149) |
D.Washington | OAK | 0.12 (132) | 58% (36) | 1.6 (111) | 7.3 (106) | 40 (166) |
T.Boyd | CIN | 0.12 (132) | 47% (122) | 1.6 (125) | 7.2 (111) | 146 (7) |
J.Reynolds | LAR | 0.11 (136) | 42% (172) | 1.4 (171) | 7.6 (86) | 43 (149) |
P.Richardson | WAS | 0.11 (136) | 55% (58) | 1.5 (134) | 5.8 (162) | 42 (158) |
C.Samuel | CAR | 0.11 (136) | 42% (163) | 1.4 (166) | 5.9 (158) | 106 (33) |
E.Engram | NYG | 0.10 (139) | 44% (155) | 1.6 (116) | 6.9 (124) | 68 (85) |
D.Goedert | PHI | 0.09 (140) | 54% (66) | 1.7 (87) | 7.0 (119) | 87 (55) |
S.Shepard | NYG | 0.09 (140) | 56% (49) | 1.6 (124) | 6.9 (123) | 84 (59) |
N.Fant | DEN | 0.09 (140) | 43% (162) | 1.8 (75) | 8.6 (48) | 65 (89) |
G.Everett | LAR | 0.09 (140) | 45% (147) | 1.5 (146) | 6.8 (128) | 60 (97) |
E.Sanders | DEN | 0.09 (140) | 49% (101) | 1.8 (76) | 8.2 (63) | 45 (141) |
M.Gesicki | MIA | 0.08 (145) | 45% (141) | 1.6 (127) | 6.5 (141) | 88 (54) |
E.Elliott | DAL | 0.08 (145) | 42% (168) | 1.5 (136) | 5.9 (156) | 71 (77) |
D.Freeman | ATL | 0.08 (145) | 44% (153) | 1.8 (67) | 5.9 (161) | 70 (80) |
R.Jones | TB | 0.08 (145) | 45% (147) | 1.5 (130) | 7.7 (82) | 40 (166) |
A.Jeffery | PHI | 0.07 (149) | 55% (55) | 1.6 (128) | 6.6 (135) | 74 (70) |
Ro.Anderson | NYJ | 0.06 (150) | 46% (132) | 1.7 (101) | 8.1 (66) | 95 (42) |
A.Wilson | MIA | 0.06 (150) | 45% (144) | 1.4 (175) | 5.7 (167) | 62 (95) |
K.Drake | ARI | 0.06 (150) | 50% (92) | 1.3 (187) | 4.8 (187) | 36 (177) |
M.Valdes-Scantling | GB | 0.05 (153) | 30% (196) | 1.5 (149) | 8.1 (68) | 56 (107) |
I.Ford | MIA | 0.05 (153) | 54% (62) | 1.4 (176) | 7.0 (120) | 35 (181) |
J.Crowder | NYJ | 0.05 (153) | 46% (136) | 1.6 (113) | 6.8 (126) | 122 (19) |
S.Barkley | NYG | 0.04 (156) | 40% (177) | 1.5 (155) | 6.0 (153) | 73 (72) |
J.Sprinkle | WAS | 0.04 (156) | 59% (28) | 1.5 (139) | 5.9 (160) | 41 (160) |
J.Doyle | IND | 0.03 (158) | 48% (114) | 1.6 (115) | 6.1 (151) | 73 (72) |
G.Allison | GB | 0.03 (158) | 38% (183) | 1.3 (180) | 5.2 (182) | 56 (107) |
D.Westbrook | JAX | 0.03 (158) | 47% (129) | 1.5 (161) | 6.5 (142) | 103 (35) |
J.Samuels | PIT | 0.02 (161) | 44% (160) | 1.5 (159) | 5.4 (177) | 57 (106) |
E.Ebron | IND | 0.02 (161) | 50% (92) | 1.7 (103) | 7.2 (110) | 52 (119) |
P.Williams | MIA | -0.01 (163) | 47% (126) | 1.5 (131) | 7.1 (113) | 60 (97) |
J.Smith-Schuster | PIT | -0.02 (164) | 45% (145) | 1.6 (112) | 7.8 (78) | 71 (77) |
C.Thompson | WAS | -0.02 (164) | 42% (164) | 1.4 (177) | 6.4 (143) | 59 (100) |
M.Gordon | LAC | -0.02 (164) | 47% (120) | 1.4 (168) | 5.4 (176) | 55 (111) |
D.Hamilton | DEN | -0.02 (164) | 42% (165) | 1.2 (188) | 5.7 (165) | 52 (119) |
J.Hollister | SEA | -0.05 (168) | 46% (138) | 1.7 (93) | 5.9 (157) | 59 (100) |
N.Hines | IND | -0.05 (168) | 43% (161) | 1.3 (181) | 5.5 (171) | 58 (103) |
R.Freeman | DEN | -0.05 (168) | 34% (191) | 1.5 (148) | 5.1 (184) | 50 (124) |
O.Beckham | CLE | -0.05 (168) | 44% (158) | 1.5 (163) | 7.5 (89) | 127 (16) |
P.Lindsay | DEN | -0.06 (172) | 33% (193) | 1.1 (193) | 4.1 (198) | 48 (129) |
N.Agholor | PHI | -0.07 (173) | 42% (170) | 1.4 (178) | 5.3 (180) | 69 (82) |
N.Chubb | CLE | -0.07 (173) | 45% (149) | 1.3 (183) | 5.7 (166) | 49 (127) |
D.Montgomery | CHI | -0.07 (173) | 37% (185) | 1.4 (167) | 5.3 (178) | 35 (181) |
S.Sims | WAS | -0.08 (176) | 34% (192) | 1.6 (120) | 5.5 (170) | 56 (107) |
J.Grant | MIA | -0.08 (176) | 39% (178) | 1.1 (197) | 5.0 (186) | 33 (188) |
T.Coleman | SF | -0.08 (176) | 37% (186) | 1.7 (90) | 6.0 (153) | 30 (199) |
R.Burkhead | NE | -0.09 (179) | 45% (151) | 1.4 (165) | 7.3 (105) | 38 (173) |
T.Gurley | LAR | -0.10 (180) | 40% (176) | 1.3 (186) | 4.1 (197) | 50 (124) |
A.Erickson | CIN | -0.12 (181) | 45% (150) | 1.3 (182) | 6.8 (131) | 78 (66) |
K.Johnson | ARI | -0.12 (181) | 37% (184) | 1.1 (198) | 4.4 (193) | 43 (149) |
D.Lewis | TEN | -0.12 (181) | 34% (190) | 1.5 (153) | 5.1 (183) | 32 (191) |
V.Smith | NYJ | -0.12 (181) | 42% (171) | 1.3 (185) | 7.3 (109) | 31 (193) |
D.Singletary | BUF | -0.13 (185) | 20% (199) | 1.5 (156) | 4.7 (189) | 41 (160) |
I.Thomas | CAR | -0.15 (186) | 39% (181) | 1.1 (192) | 4.4 (194) | 31 (193) |
T.Cohen | CHI | -0.15 (186) | 36% (187) | 1.4 (174) | 4.3 (195) | 103 (35) |
J.McKissic | DET | -0.16 (188) | 33% (195) | 1.5 (157) | 5.4 (175) | 43 (149) |
V.McDonald | PIT | -0.18 (189) | 46% (133) | 1.5 (150) | 4.7 (190) | 54 (116) |
L.Fournette | JAX | -0.19 (190) | 38% (182) | 1.3 (184) | 5.2 (181) | 100 (38) |
D.Ogunbowale | TB | -0.22 (191) | 48% (115) | 1.5 (140) | 6.2 (150) | 46 (138) |
L.McCoy | KC | -0.23 (192) | 35% (189) | 1.5 (160) | 4.6 (191) | 34 (184) |
K.Drake | MIA | -0.25 (193) | 39% (178) | 1.1 (196) | 4.5 (192) | 33 (188) |
J.Wims | CHI | -0.27 (194) | 36% (188) | 1.1 (195) | 4.8 (188) | 39 (170) |
T.Johnson | DET | -0.30 (195) | 29% (198) | 1.1 (194) | 3.5 (199) | 31 (193) |
K.Coutee | HOU | -0.31 (196) | 44% (152) | 1.5 (152) | 7.1 (117) | 36 (177) |
G.Bernard | CIN | -0.32 (197) | 30% (197) | 1.4 (172) | 5.4 (174) | 43 (149) |
J.Wright | CAR | -0.38 (198) | 33% (194) | 1.0 (199) | 5.1 (185) | 58 (103) |
T.Quinn | WAS | -0.44 (199) | 42% (173) | 1.2 (190) | 4.2 (196) | 48 (129) |
Fantasy Points Over Expected
After analyzing the impact of air yards, yard line, distance to the sideline, and other variables, I built a model that projects PPR fantasy points. I released the results of my model in this column, but here were the top-25 WRs in “PPR fantasy points over expected”, which is probably my single favorite efficiency stat.
Rank | Receiver | PPR Per Game | Expected PPR | PPR +/- |
1 | 19.5 | 14.9 | 4.6 | |
2 | Michael Thomas | 23.3 | 18.9 | 4.4 |
3 | 12.8 | 9.2 | 3.7 | |
4 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.8 | |
5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 2.7 | |
6 | 14.1 | 11.4 | 2.7 | |
7 | 16.9 | 14.3 | 2.6 | |
8 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 2.6 | |
9 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 2.5 | |
10 | 15.4 | 13.0 | 2.4 | |
11 | 15.5 | 13.1 | 2.4 | |
12 | 14.9 | 12.6 | 2.3 | |
13 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 2.3 | |
14 | 14.7 | 12.5 | 2.2 | |
15 | 14.7 | 12.7 | 2.0 | |
16 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 1.9 | |
17 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | |
18 | 12.0 | 10.3 | 1.7 | |
19 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 1.5 | |
20 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | |
21 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 1.3 | |
22 | 18.2 | 16.9 | 1.3 | |
23 | 15.8 | 14.5 | 1.3 | |
24 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 1.3 | |
25 | 13.7 | 12.5 | 1.2 |
I did the same exact thing for tight ends in this column. Here were the top-15 TEs.
Rank | Name | PPR Per Game | Expected PPR Per Game | PPR +/- |
1 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 4.2 | |
2 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 3.1 | |
3 | 15.7 | 13.5 | 2.3 | |
4 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 2.1 | |
5 | Ryan Griffin | 7.4 | 5.4 | 1.9 |
6 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.9 | |
7 | 13.0 | 11.2 | 1.8 | |
8 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 1.8 | |
9 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | |
10 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 1.6 | |
11 | 14.3 | 12.7 | 1.6 | |
12 | 13.9 | 12.4 | 1.5 | |
13 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 1.4 | |
14 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | |
15 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 1.2 |
Fantasy Football Content
2. Free Agency Winners and Losers
3. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (WR)
4. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (TE)
5. 2019 Deep Target Efficiency Rankings
6. 2019 Expected Receiving TD Rankings
7. 2019 Rushing Efficiency Rankings
NFL Draft Content
7. 2020 Adjusted SPARQ Scores (Offense)