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The Book Report

Embrace the Chaos: Finding Value in the NBA Draft with Jay Croucher

by NBC Sports EDGE Staff
Updated On: June 23, 2022, 11:27 am ET

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NBA general managers are looking for the next Giannis Antetokounmpo or Stephen Curry at this year’s NBA Draft at Barclay’s Center in Brooklyn. They are trying to project three or four years down the road.

Bettors are not looking that far into the future. They want information on draft position for athletes in the 2022 NBA Draft.

Knowing the value of that insight, PointsBet Director of Trading Content & Media Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) looks at the NBA Draft market and identifies value in the current market. Bettors seek value. This is value.  



Jay Croucher’s (@croucherJD) NBA Book Report:

As all Drafts are, this year's NBA Draft is a complete mess from a bookmaking perspective, with market movements as wild as the rumors that drive them. Breaking even on the Draft is always a phenomenal result for the book. Virtually every market is vulnerable, with prices based on tweets and rumors instead of the wealth of data that underpins game lines and totals. A few markets to watch:


Bennedict Mathurin Under 6.5 (-250)

Mathurin is firming as a heavy favorite to go in the top 6. He's highly unlikely to get past Indiana at #6, and Detroit may take him at #5 if Jaden Ivey is off the board as expected. Sacramento at #4 also isn't completely out of the question, though it's a long shot. Multiple potential landing spots in the top 6 for one of the draft's big risers.


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Jalen Duren Over 10.5 (-160)

There are not many teams desperate to take a Center in the top 10, making Duren a candidate to slide. San Antonio at #9 is the main team to dodge here - if Duren slides past them, the bet is likely home given Washington at #10 are fully stocked with bigs. The best guess here is Duren goes #11 to New York, cashing the over.


Chet Holmgren #1 Pick (+500)

Embrace chaos. Almost all of Planet Earth expects Jabari Smith to go #1 here and based on all context that still is the clear favorite in the market, but the Magic have been very tight-lipped. Holmgren all along has been the player who most lines up with the player archetypes that Orlando management has drafted in the past. Don't be shocked if there's a shock at #1.


A Response from an EDGE Expert:

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports):

I am with Jay on Jalen Duren's Over 10.5 draft position as the only ideal spots for him are Portland and San Antonio at Nos. 7 and 9. Besides those two teams, Duren seems likely to be a late lottery pick to a first-round mid-round pick. While I cannot get down with Chet Holmgren to go No. 1 overall to Orlando, I once again agree with Jay that Bennedict Mathurin should go inside the top six and could bump Jaden Ivey out of the top six if Sacramento or Detroit roll with Keegan Murray.


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