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Ty Dillon
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Cap Considerations

AdventHealth 400 DFS Gems

by Dan Beaver
Updated On: May 13, 2022, 2:57 pm ET

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Momma said there'd be days like this. When Kyle Larson spun and possibly tweaked his engine, he became the first man out and earned negative points for the fourth time this season. To take him last week at $11,000 you probably had to make some compromises. If you made the right ones, that may have saved your lineup.

Kyle Busch and Alex Bowman also drained points from your lineup, while Martin Truex Jr., Ross Chastain, and Ryan Blaney barely moved the needle in a positive direction. We're fond of saying that racing is a zero-sum game, however, and that meant quite a few drivers below the $8,333 cost-per-player average earned 40 or more points. It's why most players are tempted to set multiple rosters to take advantage of those elusive dark horses.

Typically, we would say the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway will be more predictable, but the NextGen car continues to force players to scratch their heads. This is a track historically prone to streaks. In the past 18 races, three drivers have a .500 or better average for top-fives and nine hit that mark for top-10s. Most of these come in clumps and it's rare to see one top-10 hanging out there alone. Make most of your decision this week based on a driver's record at Kansas.

Group A: Most Expensive (>=$10,000)

Chase Elliott ($10,900)
The DraftKings cap managers cut you a little break this week and priced only four drivers above the $10k mark. Elliott has commanded a top-five salary cap in every race this season and at the start of the year, that was making him a poor value. Since the Ruoff Mortgage 500k at Phoenix Raceway, he has been one of the top three earners in six of nine races – including the three most recent. Last fall, he earned the third-most (72.2) points in the second Kansas race, so he should anchor a lot of rosters.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,400)
By the process of elimination, Truex gets the second recommendation at this level. Larson is simply too expensive to be attractive considering the number of times he's lost points recently and Hamlin is – well, Hamlin, and we have no earthly idea why is priced above $10k given his recent performances. Truex hasn't exactly been predictable in recent weeks, but he has earned top-10 points in the last two unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (55.6) this spring and Kansas (43.3) last fall.

 

Driver

Top-15 points

Top-10s

Top-5s

Most points

Chase Elliott

6

5

4

 

Kyle Busch

5

4

3

 

Alex Bowman

5

4

1

 

Austin Dillon

4

4

2

 

Kyle Larson

4

4

1

 

Ryan Blaney

4

3

2

 

Kevin Harvick

4

3

1

 

Michael McDowell

4

3

  

Christopher Bell

4

2

2

 

Ross Chastain

3

3

3

2

Joey Logano

3

3

2

1

Erik Jones

3

3

  

William Byron

3

2

2

2

Tyler Reddick

3

2

2

1

Martin Truex, Jr.

3

2

2

 

Chase Briscoe

3

1

  

Daniel Suarez

2

2

1

 

Brad Keselowski

2

2

  

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

2

2

  

Justin Haley

2

1

1

 

Corey LaJoie

2

1

  

Todd Gilliland

2

1

  

Aric Almirola

2

   

Austin Cindric

2

   

Chris Buescher

2

   

Ty Dillon

2

   

Denny Hamlin

1

1

1

 

Cole Custer

1

1

  

Kurt Busch

1

1

  

AJ Allmendinger

1

   

Bubba Wallace

1

   

Cody Ware

1

   

Harrison Burton

1

   

Landon Cassill

1

   

Noah Gragson

1

   

Group B: (Between $9,900 and $8,000)

William Byron ($9,900)
Byron has typically been rightly-priced in the game. He has the best cumulative cost-per-thousand of 35.27, (about 5.87 per week, per thousand) and was the top producer in this regard in the most recent Kansas race with a whopping 8.04. This week, he's driving with a chip on his shoulder after getting wrecked while leading at Darlington Raceway with a lap and a half to go. If that wasn't enough incentive, he is carrying a five-race, top-10 streak at Kansas.

Ross Chastain ($9,700)
Chastain banked the most DraftKings points in three of the last seven weeks and top-five points in seven of 10. He entered Darlington as the top earner in back-to-back races at Talladega Superspeedway (64.6) and Dover Motor Speedway (83.6) and might have kept that streak alive without his spin. Since so many drivers experienced problems on the Track Too Tough to Tame, it's unlikely that mistake will stall his momentum.  

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Group C: (Between $7,900 and $6,500)

Erik Jones ($7,700)
Every driver at this level has earned top-10 points at least once in the last 45 days. Jones did so three times at Martinsville Speedway (41.5), Talladega (54.3), and Dover (49.5). It's easy for drivers to fall through the cracks at this price point level, and they are inherently inconsistent, but Jones has shown strength more often than his rivals in the last six races.

Daniel Suarez ($7,500)
Three drivers at this level earned top-10 points twice in the past 45 days, but Suarez gets the nod over Brad Keselowski and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. because his best effort at the Bristol Motor Speedway dirt track was fifth-most. He struggled at Las Vegas and lost points, but on another unrestricted, intermediate speedway the previous week, he was the seventh-most productive driver with 51. A rising tide elevates all ships and Trackhouse Racing is on a steady incline.  

Group D: (Less than or equal to $6,500)

Justin Haley ($5,900)
Haley is coming off his most productive points performance of the season and will carry that momentum with him to Kansas. While he has earned among the top 10 only twice in 12 races, he has come close on four other occasions, giving him a .500 average of top-15 earnings. One of his strong runs came on the similarly-configured Las Vegas Motor Speedway when he banked 37.9.

Ty Dillon ($5,100)
Dillon does not get nearly enough respect and that dismissive attitude by the cap manager often makes him a solid choice for a bargain basement pick. Adding him to the roster increases the cost-per-player for the remaining five by about $650 and there are several spots on the chart where that opens five or six options you would not have otherwise had. Price is not the only reason to start him, however; he has outperformed his salary cap in all but two races this year and both of those were in pack-racing lotteries.

The top-10 points’ earners from the Hollywood Casino 400 were: 1. Kyle Larson (93.7), 2. William Byron (76.4), 3. Chase Elliott (72.15), 4. Kurt Busch (57.2), 5. Kevin Harvick (52.15), 6. Alex Bowman (46.9), 7. Christopher Bell (45.65), 8. Martin Truex Jr. (43.3), 9. Parker Kligerman (43), 10. Bubba Wallace (42.45)

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Last 45 Days

Driver

Avg.
Rank

Total
Points
Earned

Avg.
Points

This
Week's
Cap

Points
Per K

Group

Group A

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chase Elliott

5.50

387.65

64.61

$10,900

        35.56

A

Martin Truex, Jr.

13.50

241.90

40.32

$10,400

        23.26

A

Kyle Larson

15.00

217.20

36.20

$11,100

        19.57

A

Denny Hamlin

20.17

171.90

28.65

$10,200

        16.85

A

Group B

 

 

 

 

 

 

William Byron

12.00

349.15

58.19

$9,900

        35.27

B

Austin Dillon

14.17

236.85

39.48

$8,000

        29.61

B

Ryan Blaney

13.17

261.35

43.56

$9,100

        28.72

B

Kyle Busch

10.67

273.55

45.59

$9,800

        27.91

B

Kevin Harvick

13.83

241.85

40.31

$8,700

        27.80

B

Alex Bowman

11.67

245.90

40.98

$9,300

        26.44

B

Ross Chastain

14.33

251.00

41.83

$9,700

        25.88

B

Christopher Bell

15.00

216.60

36.10

$8,400

        25.79

B

Joey Logano

16.50

219.50

36.58

$9,600

        22.86

B

Tyler Reddick

16.67

195.40

32.57

$8,900

        21.96

B

Group C

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aric Almirola

18.17

181.00

30.17

$7,200

        25.14

C

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

20.00

163.15

27.19

$6,800

        23.99

C

Daniel Suarez

17.67

168.65

28.11

$7,500

        22.49

C

Chris Buescher

20.17

148.35

24.73

$6,700

        22.14

C

Erik Jones

19.17

164.15

27.36

$7,700

        21.32

C

Chase Briscoe

18.67

150.15

25.03

$7,900

        19.01

C

Brad Keselowski

20.50

134.25

22.38

$7,400

        18.14

C

Austin Cindric

19.83

127.40

21.23

$7,300

        17.45

C

Kurt Busch

28.50

59.35

9.89

$7,100

          8.36

C

Group D

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bubba Wallace

23.00

114.75

19.13

$6,400

        17.93

D

Cole Custer

23.33

117.40

19.57

$6,200

        18.94

D

Justin Haley

18.67

184.10

30.68

$5,900

        31.20

D

Noah Gragson

20.50

53.15

26.58

$5,500

          9.66

D

Harrison Burton

20.00

140.15

23.36

$5,400

        25.95

D

Michael McDowell

14.83

209.35

34.89

$5,300

        39.50

D

Corey LaJoie

22.67

126.65

21.11

$5,200

        24.36

D

Ty Dillon

20.17

142.60

23.77

$5,100

        27.96

D

Todd Gilliland

22.50

120.25

20.04

$4,900

        24.54

D

Josh Bilicki

30.00

15.00

7.50

$4,800

          3.13

D

BJ McLeod

28.40

52.50

10.50

$4,700

        11.17

D

Cody Ware

26.17

95.15

15.86

$4,600

        20.68

D

JJ Yeley

25.40

86.75

17.35

$4,500

        19.28

D

2022 Pennzoil 400 [Las Vegas 1]
Wise Power 400 [Auto Club]
2021 Hollywood Casino 400 [Kansas 2]

Dan Beaver

Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 20 years with a little help from his >650,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.