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Cap Considerations

Go Bowling at the Glen DFS Gems: Preece, Dillon are strong in Group D

by Dan Beaver
Updated On: August 6, 2021, 4:56 pm ET

Drivers will certainly be fresh this week for the Go Bowling at the Glen after getting a two-week vacation. That should sharpen their focus – and it is needed since this track has been described as the superspeedway of road courses. It’s difficult to tell just how fast the drivers are going until something goes wrong. When that happens, pinch points dotted around the track, turn small mistakes into track-blocking accidents.

Neither Watkins Glen nor Sonoma Raceway was run in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic, but for the past few decades these tracks have been the staple of NASCAR’s road course schedule. The Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval was added in 2018 and while many of the same drivers who ran well at the Glen and Sonoma also performed well there, these two tracks remain more closely similar because of the amount of laps that the veterans have logged.

The Save Mart 350k at Sonoma had a familiar feel to it with only a smattering of fresh faces. Fantasy players can expect the same thing this week, but when you have an opportunity to include strong contenders from Daytona International Speedway Road Course, Circuit of the Americas, and Road America, you should feel confident in doing so.

Group A: Most Expensive (>=$10,000)

Chase Elliott ($10,600)
It’s impossible to handicap anyone other than Elliott as the most likely winner this week. His spin at Daytona keeps him from having a near-perfect record of top-10 points’ results in the DraftKings game over the past two seasons, but he made up for that with the most points earned at Road America. Elliott should easily land north of the 50 mark and depending on how the team executes their strategy, he could earn more than 75 points.

Kurt Busch ($10,000)
By the stats, Kyle Busch should be the second pick this week. But with the most expensive price tag in the game, it’s going to be hard to make the necessary selections below to fit him on your roster. And yes, we are fully aware that he is going to earn a lot of place-differential points after retiring early at New Hampshire and starting deep in the field at the Glen. By comparison Ku. Busch is nearly $1k cheaper and has almost as much upside to his younger brother. It’s easy to overlook his strength on this track type, but he’s been consistently strong with a top-10 average of .722 in the last 18 road races. Four of his last five attempts there ended sixth or better.

Group B: (Between $9,900 and $8,000)

Joey Logano ($9,600)
Logano was a disappointment at Road America in the most recent road race. He earned only 27 points there, which ranked 17th. In the four events on this track type previous to that he ranked between fourth and sixth with points of 48.4 to 54.9. If he scores another 50-ish points this week, he will continue to be one of the best values in the game with a price tag that puts him seventh on the chart. In our estimation, it is acceptable to give his Sonoma effort greater weight over Road America.

Denny Hamlin ($9,400)
Hamlin’s top-five finishes at Daytona and Road America did not earn as many points as one would expect and that is part of the reason he is so cheap this week. In those two events, he landed among the top-10 in fantasy production with 44.6 points in Florida and 40.5 in Wisconsin. He also has consistency on his side with top-15 points in each race this year. He’s a good utility pick this week with an outside shot at winning and if that happens, he will be the best value in the game.

Group C: (Between $7,900 and $6,500)

Erik Jones ($7,000)
Jones has never finished worse than 10th at the Glen and two of his three starts ended in top-fives. The argument against him will be that he was in superior, Joe Gibbs Racing equipment when he scored those results and no one truly expects him to crack the top 10 this week. And while he has not added any road course top-10s this year to his NASCAR stats, he does have a pair of top-10 points productions at DraftKings with 52 earned at Daytona and 39.5 at Sonoma. His COTA effort was solid as well with 40 points that ranked him 12th for the weekend.

Chris Buescher ($7,800)
Likewise, Buescher doesn’t need a top-10 in order to be the best value at this level. An 11th-place finish at Daytona earned 51 points; a 13th at COTA earned 45. Both of those efforts ranked seventh in their respective races. His points’ production was not as great in the last two road course races, but he nevertheless has a perfect record of top-20s that suggests he will be in contact with the leaders at the end of the Go Bowling at the Glen.

Group D: (Less than or equal to $6,500)

Austin Dillon ($6,100)
Over the past five years about 25 different drivers have scored top-10 finishes on road courses and another handful have top-15s. Among the drivers listed this week who have not earned a top-15, only a few have started more than a few road races – which means that given enough time, everyone eventually is successful on this track type. There is an opportunity to score some points with Dillon if he can repeat his Road America performance when he pocketed 58 with an 11th-place finish. His COTA and Sonoma runs were not quite as productive at DraftKings, but he did finish in the top 15 in those race results.

Ryan Preece ($5,500)
Preece earned top-10 points at COTA earlier this year and almost cracked 50 with his 15th-place finish. His finishing result was better at Daytona, but that ninth-place effort netted only 32 points. The greatest recommendation for him is that with a price tag of $5,500 he doesn’t need to carry your roster and he has been consistent in terms of points’ production this year with a range of 24 to 31.

The top-10 points’ earners from the 2021 Save Mart 350k at Sonoma were: Kyle Larson 72.3, Kurt Busch 64.45, Martin Truex, Jr. 59.7, Ross Chastain 59.45, Joey Logano 50.7, Chase Elliott 47.05, Kyle Busch 40.4, Erik Jones 39.45, Daniel Suarez 36.35, and Ryan Blaney 35.45.

Last 45 Days

Driver

Avg.
Rank

Total
Points
Earned

Avg.
Points

This
Week's
Cap

Points
Per K

Group

Kurt Busch

12.40

250.25

50.05

$10,000

        25.03

A

Kyle Busch

9.00

272.25

54.45

$10,900

        24.98

A

Chase Elliott

13.40

202.25

40.45

$10,600

        19.08

A

Kyle Larson

15.00

170.35

34.07

$10,200

        16.70

A

Martin Truex, Jr.

14.40

165.30

33.06

$10,400

        15.89

A

 

Brad Keselowski

6.60

263.00

52.60

$9,000

        29.22

B

Ryan Blaney

7.40

257.50

51.50

$9,200

        27.99

B

Kevin Harvick

10.80

222.05

44.41

$8,500

        26.12

B

Alex Bowman

9.80

220.55

44.11

$8,600

        25.65

B

Tyler Reddick

12.20

178.35

35.67

$8,000

        22.29

B

Denny Hamlin

11.20

189.75

37.95

$9,400

        20.19

B

Joey Logano

13.00

182.55

36.51

$9,600

        19.02

B

Chase Briscoe

18.40

144.00

28.80

$8,300

        17.35

B

Christopher Bell

17.40

147.70

29.54

$8,800

        16.78

B

Ross Chastain

21.20

101.70

20.34

$8,100

        12.56

B

William Byron

19.00

119.70

23.94

$9,800

        12.21

B

 

Aric Almirola

16.40

174.20

34.84

$6,800

        25.62

C

Bubba Wallace

14.60

156.90

31.38

$6,600

        23.77

C

Matt DiBenedetto

15.00

154.80

30.96

$7,600

        20.37

C

Cole Custer

19.40

115.25

23.05

$6,500

        17.73

C

Erik Jones

23.80

92.00

18.40

$7,000

        13.14

C

Chris Buescher

23.40

89.00

17.80

$7,800

        11.41

C

Michael McDowell

25.60

68.50

13.70

$7,200

          9.51

C

Ryan Newman

24.80

68.85

13.77

$7,300

          9.43

C

Daniel Suarez

24.60

62.90

12.58

$7,500

          8.39

C

 

Austin Dillon

15.60

164.70

32.94

$6,100

        27.00

D

Ryan Preece

18.00

125.20

25.04

$5,500

        22.76

D

Corey LaJoie

21.80

93.00

18.60

$5,800

        16.03

D

Justin Haley

25.00

64.00

16.00

$5,200

        12.31

D

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

22.60

74.80

14.96

$6,300

        11.87

D

Josh Bilicki

29.80

45.00

9.00

$4,800

          9.38

D

Quin Houff

30.20

41.00

8.20

$4,500

          9.11

D

James Davison

28.00

50.00

12.50

$5,900

          8.47

D

Garrett Smithley

30.50

36.00

9.00

$4,600

          7.83

D

Anthony Alfredo

30.60

30.45

6.09

$5,600

          5.44

D

Kyle Tilley

32.00

1.00

1.00

$5,000

          0.20

D

RC Enerson

 

 

 

$5,300

             -  

D

DFS Gems for the Jockey 250 (Road America)
Save Mart 350k (Sonoma)
Texas Grand Prix (COTA)

Dan Beaver

Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 20 years with a little help from his >650,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.