UFC Vegas 55 is a volatile card. I found plenty of value in this card with some expected fight outcomes. Most of these fights have binary outcomes with difficulty in predicting which fighter will be able to impose their will on the fight. Follow me on Twitter @CombatSportsNBC for my tracked bets. Feel free to DM me if you want my picks for any fight on the card and my thoughts on any other props or parlays you’re interested in playing.
*** Fight: Nick Maximov vs Andre Petroski
** Prop Play: Nick Maximov to win in Round 3 or Decision (+104) on Pointsbet
Analysis: Nick Maximov is a takedown machine. He averages 5.67 takedowns per 15 minutes. Andre Petroski averages 4.29 takedowns over 15 minutes but he is a known gasser. Petroski may have some success early, specifically in the striking exchanges. Maximov is not going to let Petroski get comfortable striking. This will be one-way traffic from Maximov as soon as he can empty Petroski’s gas tank.
*** Fight: Virna Jandiroba vs Angela Hill
** Prop Play: Virna Jandiroba by Submission (+340) on Pointsbet
Analysis: This is one of those binary fights that I mentioned earlier. Angela Hill’s path to victory is to keep this fight standing and accumulate strikes. Hill has a significant striking advantage that will allow her to cruise to a decision victory or finish this fight with damage. Hill averages 5.56 strikes landed per 15 minutes. Virna needs to impose her will in the grappling and get Hill to the ground. Virna should be able to submit Angela Hill if it gets to the ground.
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*** Fight: Michael Johnson vs Alan Patrick
** Prop Play: Will the Fight Go The Distance - NO (+116) on Pointsbet
Analysis: This is another binary fight. Michael Johnson is an excellent boxer with a good jab and power in his left hand. He should be able to finish this fight if it stays standing. Alan Patrick averages 3.24 takedowns per 15 minutes and may be able to exhaust Michael Johnson to the point he finishes this fight.
*** Fight: Katlyn Chookagian vs Amanda Ribas
** Prop Play: Katlyn Chookagian to Win in Round 3 or Decision (-104) on Pointsbet
Analysis: Katlyn Chookagian should win this fight by decision. You can bet the decision prop at +115 for some extra value. Chookagian owns a six-inch height advantage and a two-inch reach advantage. She will use plenty of movement in her attack and keep Ribas off-balance and guessing. She will pump her jab to victory. This is a bad matchup for her as she comes up to the Flyweight division after a few fights at Strawweight.