The UFC travels to Singapore for a Light Heavyweight title fight between Glover Teixeira and Jiri Prochazka. This fight is scheduled for five rounds but UFC fans expect to see violence in this matchup. This fight will not make it to the championship rounds. One of these fighters is going to get a finish within three rounds. This is a matchup that clearly favors Glover Teixeira on the ground. If it stays on the feet, it favors the explosive striking of Jiri Prochazka. These fighters have tremendous respect for each other but they will be looking to finish this fight in the early rounds.
The Skillset of Glover Teixeira
Glover Teixeira enters the octagon at 42 years old for his first title defense. He is an accomplished boxer in his own right. He has heavy hands and was able to hurt Jan Blachowicz with a left hook in round two which forced Jan to be more aggressive. That increase in aggression from Jan eventually led to another Glover takedown and the finishing sequence to secure the belt. Glover needs to be very careful on the feet vs Jiri Prochazka. He is going to be at a speed disadvantage and Jiri strikes from different angles with power. Glover was able to secure a takedown vs Jan Blachowicz thirty seconds into round one and ride out the first round in top position. Jan would put himself in a great position to finish this fight early if he is able to complete a takedown early vs Jiri. Glover is heavy on top and will be able to threaten Jiri with ground and pound or a submission attempt from top control. Glover’s path to victory is the takedown and it will most likely take two takedowns to wear Jiri out and secure a finish.
The Skillset of Jiri Prochazka
Jiri Prochazka is capable of finishing a fight on the feet at any time. He has a wide stance and is elusively quick. He also has a solid chin. He was able to withstand heavy shots from both of his UFC opponents Volkan Oezdemir and Dominick Reyes. Jiri pressures forward and keeps a high striking pace. He is capable of striking from distance by using his length and will also quickly close that distance and unload a combination of strikes with power in each and every strike. Jiri fights with his hands down, allowing his strikes to connect at different angles. He will use stiff straight kicks to straighten up his opponent and control range. When he gets his opponent backing up he will close distance with a jump in knee or hooks in combination. Jiri wants to keep this fight on the feet for the longevity of the fight. He will connect with Glover and hurt him if this fight stays standing. He will need to keep Glover’s hands off him and refuse the clinch. Jiri was taken down by Dominick Reyes but quickly powered himself back up to his feet. Jiri was breathing heavy towards the end of round one vs Reyes and was visibly tired in round two during that fight. It should be noted that both fighters landed heavy shots in that matchup which included a frenetic pace. Jiri should win this fight if he keeps it standing. He will land a finishing blow if Glover struggles to get this fight grounded.
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- Jiri Prochazka has a one-inch height advantage and a four-inch reach advantage
- Jiri Prochazka averages 7.19 strikes landed per minute with a 52% striking accuracy
- Glover Teixeira averages 3.72 strikes landed per minute with a 48% striking accuracy
- Glover Teixeira averages 2.11 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes
Picking a Winner
My pick to win the Main Event:
- Glover Teixeira
My best bet for the Main Event:
- Prop: Glover Teixeira and Under 2.5 Rounds (+380)
There are a few ways to bet this fight. I am planting my flag on the Glover Teixeira side. Expect him to pursue the takedown early and often. His first takedown should go a long way in Glover draining the gas tank of Jiri Prochazka. The second takedown should put Glover in a position to finish this fight with ground strikes or via submission.
If you favor Jiri Prochazka, you can bet the Jiri Prochazka KO/TKO prop at (-135) or pick a round for the KO/TKO which would be round one or round two. Jiri by KO/TKO in round one would be my selection.
The over/under is set at 1.5 rounds for this fight. The value lies in the alternate line prop of under 2.5 rounds at (-175). You can use that line straight or in a parlay.
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