Most of my plays today will be based around the Baltimore Orioles & the Arizona Diamondbacks. These are my top stacks of the slate. Once again due to the larger slate size, I do not expect Baltimore to be particularly chalky but I do expect Arizona to be a popular investment (even with Marte likely sidelined). Make sure to sign up for the NBC Sports Edge+ for access to the top DFS / Betting tools in the industry!
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Stephen Vogt - Arizona Diamondbacks - (vs. Colorado Rockies - SP Jon Gray)
I am all in on a Diamondbacks stack today as they will be facing Jon Gray. Arizona has a team batting average of .380 with two home runs and 11 RBI over 92 at-bats against Gray. Vogt is a powerful, left-handed batter who already has two home runs so far this season. Homerun or bust for Vogt today who will be swinging for the Coors Field fences. The Arizona Diamondbacks are currently favored by -165 with a slate high 11.0 O/U Courtesy of Pointsbet.com. If Vogt does not start (which I believe he will) Carson Kelly would be the pivot.
Trey Mancini - Baltimore Orioles (vs. Boston Red Sox - SP Eduardo Rodriguez)
Trey has a .323 BA with three doubles and two home runs against Rodriguez over 31 at-bats. Very impressive although he did strike out 11 times throughout those at-bats. Trey has started the season with a 5.3 fantasy point per game average. He also has yet to hit a home run so far this season. This game is taking place in Camden Yards, Baltimore’s home stadium. Trey has totaled about half of his overall home run production at home throughout his last three seasons. This seems like a boom or bust style game to me. Either Rodriguez performs against a strikeout-prone Baltimore squad (who leads the league in strikeouts with 77 so far this season) or the Orioles blowout. The Orioles are killing left-handed pitching with a .354 team BA through 48 at-bats so far this season. The Orioles are underdogs at +135 with a 9 O/U Courtesy of Pointsbet.com. Boston SP Eduardo Rodriguez or Baltimore OF Anthony Santander (behind him in the lineup) would be viable pivots.
Whit Merrifield - Kansas City Royals (vs. Chicago White Sox - SP Lance Lynn)
Using the NBC Sports Edge + MLB Optimizer Whit Merrifield is projected for 11.7 points on DraftKings making him our highest-ranked second baseman. Most people will stay away from Merrifield for two reasons. One, he disappointed yesterday against Shane Bieber with zero points, and two, he currently has a career .125 BA against Lynn over 16 at-bats. His salaries are also as high as can be around the industry. So, you’re telling me that I can roster Merrifield at low ownership today because of those reasons? Sounds good to me! Merrifield is averaging 15.8 FPPG so far this season.
*Note: Josh VanMeter is starting at second base for Arizona and will be batting 2nd for the injured Ketel Marte. The left-handed second baseman becomes a great play within a lucrative Diamondbacks stack.*
Josh Fuentes - Colorado Rockies (vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - SP Merrill Kelly)
Coors Field allowed 1.147 home runs per game throughout the 2020 season. Coors also allowed 1.39 runs per game last year. The stadium is fantasy gold. Look to target Coors Field when appropriate all-season long. There have not been many consistencies in major league baseball statistics over the years but one that has held true season to season is the steadily high production at Coors Field. Fuentes has averaged 7.0 DK points per game so far this season. The Colorado Rockies are currently underdogs at + 110 with a slate high 11.0 O/U Courtesy of Pointsbet.com.
Other 3B option: Phillip Evans
Pat Valaika - Baltimore Orioles (vs. Boston Red Sox - SP Eduardo Rodriguez)
The pure value play. Valaika's salaries are low and he is confirmed starting in the nine-hole today. In a favorable hitting environment, at low salaries, this becomes a necessary play for lineup flexibility. Am I projecting 20 + fantasy points? No. But will he reach value? Yes, he should. Our NBC Sports Edge optimizer currently has him at 6.4 projected fantasy points for today's matchup vs. Red Sox lefty, Eduardo Rodriguez. The Orioles are underdogs at +135 with a 9 O/U Courtesy of Pointsbet.com.
David Peralta - Arizona Diamondbacks - (vs. Colorado Rockies - SP Jon Gray)
I really love the Diamondbacks today considering their BvP stats against Colorado SP Jon Gray. Arizona has a team batting average of .380 with two home runs and 11 RBI over 92 at-bats against Gray. Yes, David Peralta comes in struggling with only 3.5 fantasy points per game so far. He is still my top play for Arizona (in addition to Stephen Vogt who I mentioned above). Peralta is batting .462 against Gray over 26 at-bats. Considering Ketel Marte will likely miss time due to last night’s injury, you should be able to find solid value on the Diamondbacks going forward. If Marte is playing, he becomes a fine play as well. The Arizona Diamondbacks are currently favored by -165 with a slate high 11.0 O/U Courtesy of Pointsbet.com. Jon Gray is a viable pivot play against a general stack/exposure to the Arizona Diamondbacks.