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Baltimore Orioles (vs. Houston Astros - SP Jose Urquidy)
The NBC Sports Edge MLB DFS optimizer has two players from the Baltimore Orioles locked into our optimal cash lineup and both players are below $4,000 salaries on DraftKings. Cedric Mullins and Ryan Mountcastle have projections of 14.4 and 12.3 DK FP respectively. At their current salaries, the Baltimore Orioles are cash stack viable. Baltimore is facing Houston’s Jose Urquidy. Urquidy has had three solid starts in a row against the Minnesota Twins, the Chicago White Sox, and the same Baltimore Orioles team that he faces tonight. It’s very difficult for pitchers to face the same team twice in the same week. Solid batters can adjust their swing and often have an advantage seeing a pitcher for the second time in two starts. Baltimore lost 13 - 0 in this game back on June 23rd. I expect them to even the scales tonight by taking on some runs of their own. The atmosphere is favorable for offensive production on a hot night in Houston's Minute Maid Park. Pointsbet.com has the Orioles as underdogs at +220 with a 9.5 O/U.
Pivot: Jose Urquidy
Arizona Diamondbacks (vs. St. Louis Cardinals - SP Carlos Martinez)
Carlos Martinez has not looked good recently. Martinez has allowed negative fantasy points in three of his last five outings. Most recently, Pittsburgh totaled five earned runs against him over five innings with just five hits. Before that, the Atlanta Braves tagged him for -11.7 fantasy points total off two home runs (eight earned runs allowed) over three innings pitched. Martinez also had a horrible outing against the Dodgers on June 2nd allowing 10 earned runs, off six hits, over just .2 IP. If Martinez cannot pitch an average outing tonight (at least) you may see St. Louis management forced to make some decisions. Martinez has shown the ability to pitch well in one of his last five starts. He lasted seven innings and allowed just five hits against the Chicago Cubs totaling 20.2 DraftKings FP. The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 71 home runs so far this season (second-lowest in the majors). They’re also batting just .233 as a team. Oddly enough, this is the type of game that you’re going to want to invest in both sides of. Meaning one lineup with Martinez and one hedge lineup with an Arizona stack. Yes, I understand Carlos Martinez has been horrible. With his back against the wall and facing an offensively challenged Diamondbacks team, something has to give. The Arizona Diamondbacks are not an offensively talented team at the moment. They have won five of their last six games while scoring one run or fewer in the majority of these matchups. If Carlos Martinez performs, he will be rostered by less than 2% of the field. The Arizona Diamondbacks are risky as well. Their healthy offensive talent is lacking. The ability to recognize a game like this, a game where you can invest in both sides and know that one will pay off, is an extremely important skill for daily fantasy success. This is one example of how analyzing DFS differs from conventional gambling. The Arizona Diamondbacks that you’ll want to consider investing in are left-handed power bats. Carlos Martinez is allowing lefties to hit .269 with four home runs in 160 at-bats this season. Right-handed batters are hitting .238 against Martinez with three home runs in 122 at-bats (not much worse honestly). The Arizona Diamondbacks have seen Martinez once so far this season. He pitched six total innings, allowing three hits and three earned runs. Pointsbet.com has the Cardinals favored by -161 with a 9.0 O/U.
Value: Josh Reddick
Pivot: Carlos Martinez
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2B Josh Rojas
SS Ramon Urias
3B Maikel Franco
OF Pavin Smith
OF Josh Reddick
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