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Here we go with the Single Game NFL DFS slate for Monday Night Football of Week 13. Today’s matchup is between the Bills and Patriots with Buffalo checking in as a 2.5 point home favorite. The over/under currently rests at 43.5 total points. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 ET.
We’ll highlight the top picks and best bargains to assemble a cash-inducing lineup. On top of that, the “additional notes” section will feature several tournament selections while adding context to the rest of this slate.
We will be producing these articles for Thursday, Sunday, and Monday Night Football matchups, so be sure to bookmark the NBC Sports EDGE DFS Page for those occasions - not to mention all the other fantastic daily fantasy content.
Josh Allen - QB - Buffalo (DK: $11,200 / FD: $17,500 / Yahoo: $33)
Allen checks in as the top overall fantasy pick of this slate, and it’s not particularly close. The Bills’ offense runs through him, and he has upside through the air as well as on the ground. Points could be at a premium with two solid defenses taking the field, but Allen is the best bet to break through that. While he probably won’t achieve that 29+ FP upside from recent weeks, there’s a very good chance he’ll be the top fantasy scorer with somewhere in the neighborhood of 20+ FP.
Stefon Diggs - WR - Buffalo (DK: $10,600 / FD: $14,000 / Yahoo: $27)
I’m liking the Allen-to-Diggs connection through all formats tonight. Sure, the matchup doesn’t look great on paper, but I’m thinking Diggs should see plenty of targets as the Bills try to move the chains against this tough New England defense. Diggs is starting to gain momentum with four touchdowns over his last three games, and he’s averaging more than 86 yards across that span.
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Tyler Bass - K - Buffalo (DK: $4,400 / FD: $8,500 / Yahoo: N/A)
We have a low over/under, so you know what that means - it’s time to look at kickers! Bass has been money in the bank this season with a healthy 9.2 FPPG mark. He could see a few more opportunities with the Buffalo offense stalling against a capable Patriots’ defense. Bass has a higher projection than everyone else in this salary range, so go ahead and target him in cash games.
Nelson Agholor - WR - New England (DK: $3,000 / FD: $7,000 / Yahoo: $11)
Agholor is dirt-cheap, especially over on DraftKings. He’s somewhat touchdown-dependent, and there’s some concern while heading into a brutal matchup at Buffalo. However, the Bills are capable of locking down the running game, which could have New England passing more than usual. That might lead to a few extra targets for Agholor and company. Fingers crossed.
Rhamondre Stevenson - RB - New England (DK: $5,600 / FD: $12,000 / Yahoo: $18)
Stevenson is probably better on DraftKings, as his salary is much cheaper than backfield mate Damian Harris. Stevenson and Harris essentially split the backfield at this point, as they have both been seeing around 10-15 carries apiece. There’s always a chance that Stevenson gets the hot hand and goal-line touches. It’s a coinflip, but one worth pursuing for that bargain salary on DK.
Gabriel Davis - WR - Buffalo (DK: $1,200 / FD: $6,500 / Yahoo: $10)
Part of me is worried about the wind tonight. Davis gets most of his fantasy production on deeper throws, and those will be the most susceptible to windy conditions. However, Davis is dirt-cheap with the ability to make good on his bargain salary in just one play. Consider him a risky tournament dice roll who could help you stack the rest of your lineup.
Mac Jones (QB - NE) could have more volume to his name tonight, although we need to be worried about his efficiency against a capable Buffalo defense. The wind doesn’t exactly help matters, but Jones prefers short-to-intermediate routes anyway … Kendrick Bourne (WR - NE) and Hunter Henry (TE - NE) serve as the most reliable pass-catchers to run those routes.
Damian Harris (RB - NE) is probably too expensive given that he’s sharing snaps with Stevenson. Assuming he only sees around 12 carries, Harris would need to plunge for two touchdowns to make decent headway in fantasy tonight. Keep in mind that he’s facing one of the toughest run defenses in the league as well.
Cole Beasley (WR - BUF), Emmanuel Sanders (WR - BUF), and Dawson Knox (TE - BUF) are all tournament choices in their own right. Beasley is probably my favorite of that group. If New England devotes defensive resources to Diggs, then Beasley could find himself open in the slot. He’ll run underneath routes, which Allen could prefer with the wind blowing wild (25 mph) in this game.