Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he's betting the Pittsburgh Pirates O/U of 67.5 wins for the 2023 MLB Season.
Pittsburgh Pirates O/U 67.5 Wins
Our yearly fade our favorite team never gets old because this team refuses to spend money.
Pittsburgh will have a plethora of up and coming hitters ranging from Bryan Reynolds, Ke'Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz. Despite the obvious improvement coming with age for Pittsburgh offensively, last season they ranked fifth-worst in a majority of categories (.222 BA, 591 runs, 1,497 Ks).
Austin Hedges, Ji-Man Choi and Carlos Santana are some names worth noting in this offense but I can't see this group being better than a bottom-10 offense.
The Pirates pitching rotation posted a 4.66 ERA (26th), a 2.59 batting average (27th), the fourth-most hits (1,432) and the second-fewest shutouts (6). The 2023 starting rotation will be Roansy Contreras, Rich Hill, Mitch Keller, Vince Velasquez and JT Brubaker.
That pitching rotation is bottom-five in the league and in contention for the worst. It will be the reason the Pirates go Under their total.
The two headline additions for Pittsburgh in the offseason were Rich Hill and Andrew McCutchen who are combined 78-years-old. McCutchen was a ticket grab from the Pirates management and Hill replaced Jose Quinatna on a cheap contract who is 34-years-old and was on the decline.
Pittsburgh finished last season 62-100 which was tied for the third-worst in the league and 61-101 in the previous season (fourth-worst). In 2020, the Buccos were 19-41 after a 69-93 finish in the 2019 campaign. It's been awhile since the Pirates cracked this and I don't see enough improvements or commitment to winning to take the Over.
I expect another Under 67.5 win season from Pittsburgh and more than likely a trade or two, resulting in young talent getting shipped (Reynolds, Hayes).
I got Under 67.5 Wins at -115 odds on DraftKings. It is 67.5 on BetMGM (-120) and FanDuel (-122). PointsBet has 66.5. I would go down to 65.5 for 1 unit.
Pick: Under 67.5 Wins (2u)
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