Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he's betting Game 5 between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Heat at Celtics (-8): O/U 215.5
Boston avoided the four-game sweep with a monstrous 3rd quarter (38-23) that propelled the Celtics to having a second life. Now, down 3-1 in the series and going back home, the momentum is with Boston and so are the sharps.
However, the Celtics have not performed well in Game 5's and are 4-5 at home in the playoffs this year.
Boston lost both Game 5's at Philadelphia (115-103) and in Boston versus Atlanta (119-117) this postseason and were 1-2 in last year's playoffs with losses versus Milwaukee and Golden State, plus a win at Miami.
So, the Celtics are 1-4 in their past five Game 5's with a sole win at Miami and if you go back to 2020-21, they are 1-5 in the last six Game 5's.
History says Miami has a leg up in this game and even without Gabe Vincent (out), expect Miami's role players to step up a la Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, Kyle Lowry and Caleb Martin alongside Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.
I played Miami +8 at -105 odds and the ML at +265. Underdogs are also 4-0 ATS and on the ML in this series.
Pick: Heat +8 (Risk 0.75u), Heat ML (Risk 0.25u)
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