Dalzell's Dish

How to bet Ohio State vs Michigan and Wisconsin vs Northwestern

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: February 5, 2023, 9:31 am ET

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down Ohio State versus Michigan on Sunday's College Basketball slate, plus Wisconsin vs Northwestern in the Big Ten.

Ohio State at Michigan (-3): O/U 144.5

This is the marquee game on the slate, so you know I need some action.

Hunter Dickinson should have a field day against Zed Key and this undersized Buckeyes rotation. Ohio State is the second-worst defensive rebounding team on the road in conference play and lost five straight Big Ten road games.

Ohio State's only road win in Big Ten play is at Northwestern on Jan. 1. Ohio State has four conference road games remaining: Michigan, Iowa, Purdue, and Michigan State. I think the Buckeyes lose them all.

Michigan has lost two straight at home against Ohio State and both of those Buckeye teams were better than this one. However, the same can be said for those former Michigan teams.

What I like about Michigan is that they turn the ball over 14.3% of the time in conference home games and holds its opponents to 27.9% from three, both top two marks. OSU relies on the three heavily because they only make 41.3% of their two-point attempts on the road in Big Ten play. 

Big Ten home teams won 15 out of the last 19 games (78.9%) and I think it happens here.

Michigan has not won back-to-back games since Jan. 1-4, but I won't overthink this one because this is a great spot for them to build some more confidence against a rival after handling Northwestern on the road.

I played the ML at -140 odds and would go out to -155. Michigan's only Big Ten home loss this season has come against Purdue. The second loss shouldn't be here against an Ohio State team that struggles on the road.

Pick: Michigan ML (1u)


Northwestern at Wisconsin (-3): O/U 124.5

Wisconsin was 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games, then smoked Ohio State in Ohio as a +7.5 point road underdog.

The Badgers are about to go on a run and this is a good spot for them to start that. The Wildcats played five games in 11 days and had two days of rest before making the trip to Wisconsin.

Northwestern was smoked in the second-half of their last two games versus Iowa and Michigan, plus they never really got going at home versus Michigan in the first-half, so the last 60 minutes of Northwestern basketball has been subpar.

Northwestern was out-scored 47-31 and 42-26 in the last two second halves. Wisconsin's defense is much better than Iowa's or Michigan's two. Northwestern has been out-scored 115-82 in the last 60 minutes and shot 7-of-36 (19%) from three against Iowa and Michigan.

The Wildcats allow 42.6% from three on the road in Big Ten play and hit 31.3% from deep themselves. The Wildcats also have the second-worst defensive effective field goal percentage on the road in conference play (57.9%), so the Badgers shouldn't have many issues scoring at home.

Wisconsin forces the most turnovers (21.7%) and turns the ball over the fewest at home in Big Ten play (11.6%).

Wisconsin was on full-go from the gate against Ohio State and the Badgers have their full starting lineup in tact for the first time in along time. It make all the difference, plus Wisconsin lost its last home game against Illinois.

Wisconsin has not lost back-to-back home games since February of 2021. I would make this line Wisconsin -5.5 and if Northwestern hangs around in the first half, then the Badgers are a great second-half live bet. 

I played Wisconsin on the ML at -150 odds. I would pivot to -3 out to -4 after that.

Pick: Wisconsin ML (1u)


Fordham at Richmond (-3.5): O/U 134.5

I will be on USA Network live doing the halftime show and post-game show for Fordham versus Richmond, so check it out and let's ride!

Richmond has lost four-straight games and five of the past six, while Fordham has won five straight and six of the past seven games. These are two teams trending in opposite directions, yet Richmond gets a fishy -3.5 tag.

This might be one of those plays that is very uncomfortable, but I have a better idea.

I will watch the first half live in the NBC Sports studio and give out a live bet for that game at halftime on live TV, so if you watch, let's cash whatever I end up betting! 

Leans: Richmond -3.5, Over 134.5



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