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Memphis (-2.5) vs. Virginia Tech: O/U 140.5
The Memphis Tigers are a threat to run the table in March and my pick to win the AAC.
The Virginia Tech Hokies are a good squad that could be getting slept on long-term, but I have to fade V-Tech in this spot. These two March Madness hopefuls meet in New York for the Upsie NIT Season Tip-Off.
Memphis is 17-4 ATS (81.0%) in its last 21 games. The Tigers have been a profitable team to back, while Virginia Tech is 7-11-1 ATS (39%) as an underdog the past three seasons.
Below are Memphis' betting trends over the last 21 games. They are 18-3 on the ML, per NBC's Edge Finder.
This season, Jalen Duren and Emoni Bates highlight the Tigers, but they are a deep team with Lester Quinones, DeAndre Williams, Landers Nolley and Alex Lomax.
Memphis ranks No. 1 in the nation in defensive efficiency (87.1), block percentage (25.9%), seventh in defensive effective field goal percentage (37.9%) and top seven in adjusted offensive tempo and possession length.
They are a tough team to defend, especially as the 22nd tallest team. Memphis is huge. They have eight of the top nine players standing at 6-foot-5 or taller and three starters of 6-foot-9 or taller.
This will be the toughest test yet for V-Tech as they have two starters over 6-foot-6 and five players of 6-foot-5 for taller in the 10-man rotation.
Virginia Tech has posted top 50 defensive numbers but played Maine, Navy, Radford, St. Francis (PA) and Merrimack. Memphis is a top-tier offensive squad with NBA coaching on the sideline.
Memphis beat Saint Louis by 16 and Western Kentucky by 12 in the last two games entering this contest and could win by 12-plus again.
Both Memphis and V-Tech have won by double-digits every game, and while this should be closer, there is blowout potential here because of the talent and size advantage for Memphis.
Back the Tigers out to -4 and ride this ATS stretch into March Madness.
Pick: Memphis -2.5 (1u)
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