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Florida Atlantic (-3) at North Texas: O/U 67.5
It's time! If you know, then you know.
North Texas gets the home underdog role here against Willie Taggart and the FAU Owls. Florida Atlantic has really struggled on the road in Taggart's tenure and this is a prime get-right spot for North Texas.
FAU is 2-10 on the ML (16.6%) away from home since Taggart took over in 2020 and 5-7 ATS (41.6%), per NBC's Edge Finder. The two road wins came at FIU in 2020 and Charlotte in 2021.
FAU has lost four-straight road games and 10 of the last 11 under Taggart. As a road favorite, FAU is 2-4 ATS and on the ML (33.3%).
The Owls lost on the road at Purdue and Ohio this season. Purdue was without quarterback Aidan O'Connell, so not an impressive two-point loss if you ask me.
North Texas lost two-straight tough games at UNLV and Memphis -- two good home teams. They come to Texas in need of a win as they sit at 2-3 and flirt with bowl eligibility. The Mean Green led in yardage last week versus Memphis and I like them to do the same here, but finish drives and limit points.
Memphis had 334 yards and 44 points and eight punts, while North Texas posted 473 yards and 34 points with eight punts, plus more first downs and more offensive plays ran than Memphis.
This is a good spot for North Texas to continue its offensive susses versus a bad road team in FAU.
Give me the Mean Green at +3 (-110) and sprinkle them on the ML at +135.
Pick: North Texas +3 (1u)
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New Hampshire at Western Michigan (-15): O/U 49.5
We haven't lost an FBS versus FCS bet all season, so we are going to keep this train rolling.
Western Michigan lost to Pittsburgh then had to travel across the country to play in a different time zone versus San Jose State, losing that, and get a more than positive home matchup versus FCS New Hampshire.
Western Michigan has destroyed FCS opponents in the past and could again. Since 2018, Western Michigan has played three FCS opponents beat them by 28, 35 and 68 points!
2021: Beat Illinois State 28-0
2019: Beat Monmouth 48-13
2018: Beat Delaware State 68-0
For New Hampshire, this squad has always played three FBS teams since 2018 and were smacked by 70 to Pitt, lost by 13 to FIU and 31 against Colorado.
2021: Lost 77-7 at Pitt
2019: Lost 30-17 at FIU
2018: Lost 45-14 at Colorado
The Wildcats are under a new coaching staff, but I expect the same results versus an FBS program that really needs an encouraging win.
While Western Michigan's only win came against Ball State, their losses to Pitt and Michigan State were a lot closer than the final scores indicated.
MSU won 35-13 and Pitt 34-13 -- both MSU and Pitt used two 4th-quarter touchdowns and held WMU scoreless to steal covers and victories.
The Broncos are much better than this -15 line represents, so lay the points and expect a win of at least three touchdowns. I grabbed the Broncos on DraftKings at -15 (-110). I would play this to -17 for 1.5 units.
Pick: Western Michigan -15 (1.5u)
Georgia (-28.5) at Missouri: O/U 54.5
This is me learning from last year. We had four bets in Missouri and Georgia last year and went 1-3 because the line was so sharp.
The graph below is going to show you what I mean. While Kirby Smart is 2-4 ATS versus Missouri, I like this spot for the Bulldogs.
I talked about how the spread was a little too high last year but the Bulldogs could cover and the books got me.
The spread was -40 and Georgia won by 37 (43-6) -- because of a garbage time touchdown. It was a heart-break, but the line was way too strong and seeing Georgia -28 to -29 this time around, is more than advantageous.
The Bulldogs offense is arguably better than last season's National Champion's team and the defense is the best in the country for a second-straight season.
Missouri's Team Total opened at 14.5 and is now 12.5 and -115 to the Under. That might be too many points, to be honest.
The Bulldogs scored 43 or more points in three of the last four matchups with the Tigers and they are 18-6 ATS (75%) as a road favorite under Kirby Smart.
The Bulldogs are 3-1 ATS as a road favorite of -28 or more, winning by 27 in the lone failed cover with Smart.
I wrote about the -28 earlier in the week in our NBC Chalk Article and advise buying back to the -28 in case of a 42-14 type of game. I laid the -28 on DraftKings at -125 odds.
Pick: Georgia -28 (1u)
1 unit ML Parlay: (+170)
Mississippi State ML (-190)
Baylor ML (-130)
Mississippi State ML vs. Texas A&M
Mississippi State has a nice advantage at home versus a Texas A&M squad that is struggling offensively and lost its top wide receiver (Anias Smith).
If you go back to Week 2, A&M hosted App State and lost 17-14 and snuck by with two close wins since then.
The Aggies will now have played four quality opponents back-to-back-to-back-to-back going from two-straight home games (App State, Miami) to a neutral field site (Arkansas), then to their first true road game here (at Mississippi State).
This is not an ideal spot to back the Aggies although they keep finding ways to win.
A&M got an insane fumble recovery on a goal-line fumble and the player that recovered it pitched to a teammate and they took it the distance versus Arkansas. On top of that, Arkansas missed a game-winning field goal that hit the top of the upright and Miami couldn't stop kicking field goals -- what are the chances?
Texas A&M ran 18 less plays than Arkansas and 25 fewer plays than Miami in the past two games and had much fewer yards, but used turnovers and defense to win. That same defense could be fatigued come the second-half.
The Aggies defense ranks 52nd in third-down efficiency (34.4%) and the offense is 78th (37.8%), which has been a major problem. Now they face Will Rogers, who has 16 passing touchdowns to 3 interceptions, good luck A&M.
As a favorite versus Texas A&M, Mississippi State has gone 3-0 ATS and on the ML in this series. I don't think the Aggies will be so lucky in their first true road game on the season and SEC play.
Give me the Bulldogs on the ML and I lean the -3.5 as well.
Baylor ML vs. Oklahoma State
The Big 12 has Baylor hosting Oklahoma State this Saturday and I like the home team. Baylor has much better game grades against much better competition than Oklahoma State does this season and we still don't know if the Cowboys are a quality team or not.
Oklahoma State has played Central Michigan, Arizona State and Arkansas Pine-Bluff -- all at home.
The Cowboys will play its first true road game on the season at Baylor, a squad who continually wins at home.
Baylor hosted two cupcakes at home this year but played quality road tests at BYU and at Iowa State so far.
Since 2021, Baylor is 9-0 on the ML and 8-1 ATS at home. The Bears had a four-game home winning streak versus the Cowboys before it was snapped in 2020 with little to no fans in attendance. Baylor remembers.
The Cowboys are 4-6 ATS and on the ML as a road dog in conference play since 2016 and are 3-6-1 ATS in the past 10 coming off a bye week and playing as the road team.
I can't forget to mention, Cowboys quarterback Spencer Sanders has one touchdown and seven interceptions in his two meetings versus Baylor last year and Oklahoma State won't have Jim Knowles' defense to help Sanders (now Ohio State Defensive Coordinator).
The O/U on Baylor versus OK State is 55.5 to 56.5, which signifies that the Cowboys defense can't be trusted, in my opinion. I love this spot for Baylor to get a conference home win and to fade Oklahoma State.
Two more Saturday Picks:
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.