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Dalzell's Dish

MLB K Props, May 10: Fading Severino, MadBum and Quantrill

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: May 10, 2022, 10:29 am ET

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Luis Severino O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Blue Jays

In Luis Severino's start versus Toronto earlier this season, he struck out six, including Vladimir Guerrero three times. That will not happen again.

Severino has five starts on the year and has hit five or fewer strikeouts four times. The only Over was against Toronto, so no surprise we get a 5.5 number here.

NBC's player prop model projects 5.1 innings and 4.2 strikeouts for the Yankees pitcher, and I would agree that's about the ballpark I have him in.

Severino

 

Severino has decent numbers on the season, but he is no Nestor Cortes. The bullpen will be rested after Cortes' 7.1 inning outing yesterday (almost a no-hit), so Severino should not see 6.0 innings of work, a number he reached once (against Baltimore).

The Yankees RHP has allowed an OBA of .310 and OPS of .903 the first time through the order. The Blue Jays could do damage early. 

Severino is sporting a 3.86 ERA in three starts at home and 16 Ks in 14.0 innings against the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles.

I like the chances Severino goes 5.0 innings and hits 4-5 strikeouts tonight, so I grabbed the Under 5.5 Ks at -106 odds. I would play to -140.

Pick: Luis Severino Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

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Madison Bumgarner O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Marlins

Hello, Old Friend. Madison Bumgarner is back for Round 2 versus Miami.

Bumgarner exited after one inning of work after being tossed because an umpire decided to give him a hand massage. Weird stuff from that ump.

On the season, Bumgarner allows a .200 OBA and .668 OPS versus RHB compared to .125 and .451 OPS against LHP. Miami stacked the lineup with all RHB outside of Dee Gordon. He didn't even get to Gordon, but I expect a similar lineup today.

This season, Bumgarner is 5-1 to the Under 4.5 strikeouts and has 15 strikeouts to 11 walks in 24.0 innings of work.

The Marlins have faced seven LHP and held Ranger Suárez and MadBum Under this number, so LHP are 5-2 to the Over 4.5 Ks versus Miami (71.4%), per statmuse.

However, the LHP they faced were names like Robbie Ray, Carlos Rodon, Sean Manaea, Patrick Sandoval and Patrick Corbin. Four out of five guys should hit five-plus Ks, whereas Bumgarner should not.

LHP vs MIA

 

MadBum ranks in the 8th and 13th percentiles for K% and whiff% this season. He is throwing his cutter 51% of the time and four-seam fastball 25%, so Miami should be ready for most of what he has with its expected lineup loaded with RHB.

I grabbed MadBum Under 4.5 Ks for -152 odds and would play this out to -165.

Pick: Madison Bumgarner Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

Cal Quantrill O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. White Sox

The White Sox have been good to us because they continue to crush and cash the Under 4.5 strikeouts versus RHP and LHP.

Chicago gets a RHP today, Cal Quantrill of the Cleveland Guardians. The White Sox are 18-4 to the Under 4.5 strikeouts against RHP this season (81.8%). They have held 11 of the last 12 RHP Under 4.5 Ks (91.6%).

Quantrill is 4-1 to the Under 4.5 Ks (80%) and coming off a season-high seven strikeouts versus the Padres at home.

Quantrill will be on the road in Chicago. He has gone Under 4.5 Ks in four straight road games and five of the past six starts. In his last 10 road starts, Quantrill is 7-3 to the Under, per statmuse.

Quantrill

 

This year, Quantrill has eight strikeouts and seven walks on the road over three starts and 17.1 innings (3-0 to Under).

Versus the White Sox, he has recorded four, five and six strikeouts in three career starts. Quantrill lasted 13.2 innings and racked up 15 strikeouts to five walks from 2020 to 2021. 

I played Quantrill Under 4.5 strikeouts for -152 odds and would play out to -165. I would play Quantrill Under 3.5 Ks for +100 or better and a half-unit.

Pick: Cal Quantrill Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

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