Dalzell's Dish

MLB K Props, May 23: Fade Drew Smyly and Jose Berrios

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: May 23, 2022, 2:45 pm ET

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Jose Berrios O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Cardinals

Jose Berrios has posted an interesting up and down season for the Blue Jays.

Berrios owns a 5.82 ERA, .284 OBA and eight strikeouts to four walks over 17.0 innings in May (three starts). 

He has struggled on the road this year, recording a 6.43 ERA, .300 OBA and 15 strikeouts to six walks over 21.0 innings (four starts). Berrios is 2-2 to the Under 4.5 Ks on the road and hit the Under two straight away from Toronto.

St. Louis has faced 18 RHP this month and kept 13 to four or fewer strikeouts (72.2%), per statmuse. Five straight RHP stayed Under 4.5 Ks and nine of the past 10 (90%). Overall, 16 out of 21 starting pitchers stayed Under 4.5 Ks versus the Cardinals this month (76.1%).

RHP vs Cards


Berrios ranks in the 11th percentile for K%, 9th in whiff % and is below league average in wxOBA, per baseball savant.. Berrios' numbers are not encouraging against St. Louis and they have done well versus RHP, so I will fade the Blue Jays starting pitcher on the road here.

I grabbed Berrios Under 4.5 Ks at -144 odds and would play it to -160 before passing.

Pick: Jose Berrios Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)


Drew Smyly O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Reds

Drew Smyly will make the NL Central Division start versus a Reds team that has picked up play recently.

Despite Smyly posting a 2.66 ERA on the road, his strikeouts per inning drops from 0.98 at home to 0.64 away from Chicago. He's recorded four or fewer strikeouts in all four road starts this season, making him 4-0 to the Under.

His season-high in strikeouts is five and that came last game versus the Pirates at home. That was also Smyly's third start versus Pittsburgh this season.

Smyly is throwing the curveball 44% of the time yet ranks in the 2nd percentile for curveball spin, in addition to a 22nd percentile K% and 34th for whiff %, per baseball savant.

The Reds have the fourth-fewest strikeouts over the last seven days (41) and ninth-lowest in the past 15 days (104). They are hitting .235 and .245 during that stretch.

The Reds have only faced four starting LHP this month and two of the four hit the Over, per statmuse. Yusei Kikuchi (7) and Jose Quintana (5) were the two LHP. The Reds were the road team all four games versus LHP this month, but now they are home versus Smyly.

LHP vs Reds


Versus the Reds, Smyly has faced them five times (four starts) as a member of four different teams. He owns a 3.09 ERA and .224 OBA in those five appearances. 

Smyly owns 50 plate appearances versus current Reds hitters and they post a .217 OBA, .543 SLG and 12 Ks to four walks.

Those are not great numbers (they're solid), but over the last 10 games, guys like Alek Manoah (4 Ks), Hyun-Jin Ryu (3 Ks) and five other pitches stayed Under 4.5 Ks in the past 10 meetings versus the Reds (70%), per statmuse.

Vs Reds


I played Smyly Under 4.5 Ks at -120 and would take this out to -150/-160 odds range.

Pick: Drew Smyly Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)


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