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Dalzell's Dish

MLB K Props, May 9: Fading Zach Plesac and Austin Gomber

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: May 9, 2022, 10:45 am ET

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Zach Plesac O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. White Sox

Zach Plesac will face a familiar team in the White Sox.

He will make his third road start of the season, where he sports a 5.79 ERA from the Angels and Royals.

Plesac is 10-5 to the Under 4.5 Ks (66.6%) since the start of 2021 and 2-0 to the Under this year with five strikeouts in 9.1 innings.

The White Sox have held 17 out of 21 starting RHP to Under 4.5 strikeouts this season (80.9%), per statmuse. Over the last 11 games, Chicago has held 10 of the starting pitchers to four or fewer strikeouts (90.9%).

RHP vs White Sox

 

Current White Sox hitters own a .296 OBA in 114 plate appearances with 32 hits to 24 strikeouts. Plesac has gone Under 4.5 Ks four of the past five meetings with Chicago dating back to 2021.

Plesac ranks in the 7th percentile for K%, 15th for chase rate and 20th for whiff % per baseball savant. Those are underwhelming numbers against the White Sox, who are hitting RHP and LHP well this season.

I grabbed Plesac Under 4.5 Ks at -116 odds. I would play this out to -150.

Pick: Zach Plesac Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

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Austin Gomber O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Giants

Austin Gomber has been hot the past three games but this is a good spot for an Under.

Gomber had at least six strikeouts in his last three starts with at least 6.0 innings pitched. He needed the 6th or 7th inning in all three starts to hit six strikeouts. He had five or less starting the 6th inning in every start this season.

Starting pitchers has gone Under 5.5 strikeouts in 11 straight games versus the Giants and 14 of the past 15 (93.3%), per statmuse. Corbin Burnes was the exception.

The Giants faced five starting LHP this season and four of them went Under 5.5 Ks (80%) with Sean Manaea reaching six Ks in 6.0 innings back on April 13. The Giants are hitting .212 versus LHP but strikeout at a far less rate than the league-average (as you can see against starters).

LHP vs Giants

 

Gomber has started three games against the Giants in his career, all coming in 2021, and has gone for five or less strikeouts all three times. He has allowed 16 earned runs in those three games with at least three walks, totaling 11 walks to 10 strikeouts, per statmuse (graph below).

Versus current Giants hitters, Gomber owns 40 plate appearances with a .314 OBA, a 17.5 K% on seven strikeouts to five walks per baseball savant.

Gomber

 

It is also worth noting all three starts came in San Francisco, where tonight's start is. Gomber has made three road starts this season and sports 18 strikeouts in 16.2 innings with a 2.70 ERA versus the Rangers, Tigers and Phillies.

Those are three higher strikeout teams that are hard to trust. I can trust the Giants at home (.243 BA, .712 OPS).

I grabbed Gomber Under 5.5 strikers at -160 odds and I would no play it no further and pass on a 4.5.

Pick: Austin Gomber Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

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