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Dalzell's Dish

MLB K Props, NBC's Model Picks for May 13

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: May 13, 2022, 2:59 pm ET

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NBC Model Projections for K Props on May 13

Taking a look at the Friday the 13th MLB K Prop slate, NBC's model shows value on more than a few pitchers.

Tyler Mahle, Clayton Kershaw and Marco Gonzales all are projected to go Under their strikeout totals, while Drew Rasmussen, Kyle Freeland, Jordan Lyles and Zack Greinke are all projected to go Over, per NBC's Player Prop model.

NBC K Props

 

For the Unders, Mahle has recorded six or fewer strikeouts in four-straight meetings versus the Pirates and our model predicts 4.3 Ks, giving value to the Under 5.5 Ks (-160). Mahle started against the Pirates in his last start and had six Ks over 5.0 innings and 106 pitches.

Kershaw was added to the IL today after five starts, so you are no longer able to bet on him, but Gonzales is healthy and will start versus the Mets at Citi Field. Gonzales has stayed Under 3.5 Ks in seven of his past eight road games and three straight, so there is value on his Under, although it is a scary number.

For the few Overs our model likes, Greinke is the scariest bet at O/U 2.5 Strikeouts because he's recorded 10 strikeouts and 10 earned runs in 33.2 innings pitched over six starts. Going to Coors Field will make for an interesting start, but if this was 3.5, I would prefer the Under 3.5 Ks rather than the Over 2.5 Ks.

Freeland and Lyles have been solid Unders but the model likes the Overs today. Lyles has hit five or more strikeouts in two straight starts and three of the past four, while Freeland recorded four or more Ks in three straight games. Both pitchers are +100 and +130 to the Over, so our model sees value in what could be close calls.

Rasmussen is the wild card of the group as he has been all over the place with his strikeouts. The Blue Jays are middle of the pack in strikeouts but Rasmussen only hit the Over 4.5 Ks in two of six starts. He is normally a great Under bet but at home, he could be worth a look at the Over for +100 depending on the Toronto lineup.

Good luck with whichever model picks you play or fade on Friday the 13th!

 

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