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Dalzell's Dish

Backing Andrew McCutchen, Brewers at Pirates, Gilbert, Mariners, More

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: June 30, 2022, 12:11 pm ET

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Andrew McCutchen O/U 1.5 Total Bases vs. Pirates

He returns! Andrew McCutchen is back at PNC Park where he spend many faithful years as a Pirate.

Lately, Cutch as a hit in three of his last four games, walked twice and has five RBIs. He is heating up and a return to Pittsburgh should have him excited to get after Buccos pitcher JT Brubaker.

McCutchen is hitting .222 versus Pittsburgh this season over five games. In his last outing at PNC Park, he hit a home run, had three RBIs and a walk. McCutchen drew a walk in four of those five Pirates meetings this season (80%) but only recorded a hit in two of them (40%).

McCutchen only has eight career games at PNC Park as an opponent, per statmuse. He has a hit in five of those eight games (62.5%), a walk in four (50%) and a run in three (37.5%). He does not play at Pittsburgh too often but for +140 odds, I like the chance he rips a double or draws a walk and scores a run.

Andrew McCutchen

 

McCutchen is also hitting .253 versus RHP this season and a .321 OBP compared to .221 and .289 versus LHP. Brubaker also struggles versus RHB, allowing a .274 OBA compared to .233 versus LHB.

Let's ride Cutch Over 1.5 Total Bases for +140 odds and play this down to +100.

Pick: Andrew McCutchen Over 1.5 Total Bases (1u)

 

Brewers (-125) at Pirates (+105): O/U 8.5

Staying in that game, Milwaukee has had Pittsburgh's number this season.

The Brewers are riding a four-game winning streak entering this contest and versus Pittsburgh specifically, Milwaukee is 6-0 on the ML (100%) and 5-1 ATS (83.3%) this season.

The Buccos had an explosion yesterday with three home runs courtesy of Bryan Reynolds, so now is a good time to fade them. Pittsburgh is 9-20 on the ML following a win this season (31%), losing two-straight and five of the previous eight.

If you would bet the Pirates to start a winning streak this season, you'd be down $828 for a $100 unit bettor, per NBC's Edge Finder.

Pirates

 

Milwaukee has won eight straight versus Pittsburgh dating back to last season and is 20-5 on the ML (80%) against the Pirates since 2021. Let's ride the Brew Crew at PNC for -125 odds out to -145.

Pick: Brewers ML (1u)

 

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Same Game Parlay (-115)

Logan Gilbert 5+ Strikeouts vs. Athletics

Mariners ML vs. Athletics

The Athletics will make the cross-country trip after getting swept by the Yankees, while the Mariners their last two versus the Orioles at home.

Seattle is 4-2 on the ML versus Oakland this season (66.6%) and won three straight. The Mariners are heavy -225 favorites on the ML to win this game at home, and with Logan Gilbert on the mound, Seattle has won five of his last six starts.

Gilbert has recorded at least five strikeouts in five of his last six games (83.3%), 10 of his last 12 (83.3%) and 11-4 to the Over 4.5 Ks on the season (73.3%). NBC's player prop model pegs Gilbert at 6.2 strikeouts, hitting 5+ Ks.

 

SP projections

 

Gilbert has at least four strikeouts in all four career games versus Oakland. Seattle is 4-0 on the ML with Gilbert pitching versus Oakland in his career and in three home starts, he owns 14 Ks over 14.1 innings.

Let's ride Gilbert to strikeout at least five Athletics and the Mariners to build on their two-game winning streak at home for -115 odds. I would play this out to -140 about where  PointsBet placed this same game parlay.

Pick: Logan Gilbert 5+ Ks and Mariners ML (1u)

 

Trea Turner O/U 1.5 Total Bases vs. Padres

To finish off the night, let's target Trea Turner versus Joe Musgrove and the Padres.

Turner is oddly hitting .231 versus Musgrove in his career and versus San Diego this season, which does not blow you away, but Turner has a hit in all three games versus the Padres with one double and three RBIs over 13 plate appearances.

Musgrove has been looking like an ace most of the year and has terrific numbers on the season, but in the last two games, he has started to unravel. Musgrove permitted five hits and two earned runs versus the Cubs, which is not bad, but seven hits, six earned runs and two homers with one strikeout in his last start against the Phillies is bad.

Going against an MVP candidate like Turner and the Dodgers will be a tough draw not to repeat his previous outing. Plus, Turner has at least one hit in six of his last seven games (85.7%) and 19 of the previous 21 (90.4%).

The former Nationals hitters also hits RHP much better this season, recording a .323 BA, .361 OBP and .866 SLG compared to .269/.341/.802 splits against LHP.

Musgrove's numbers are not much different between RHB or LHB, but RHB do strikeout less and earn a hit more often, which is a positive for Turner. Let's ride Turner at +100 odds out to -120 for 2+ total bases or Over 1.5 total bases. PointsBet lists this at -110 odds.

Pick: Trea Turner O/U 1.5 Total Bases (1u)

 

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