Dalzell's Dish

How to bet the MNF clash between NFC South squads, the Bucs vs Saints

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: December 5, 2022, 3:14 pm ET

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Saints at Buccaneers (-3): O/U 41.5

It's Monday Night Football and we have Andy Dalton and Tom Brady once again.

The Saints are 0-5 ATS on the road this season and 1-4 on the ML, only beating the Falcons by one point in Week 1. However, the Bucs are 0-4-1 ATS and 2-3 on the ML at home this year, so neither team has been profitable in this spot.

Brady has struggled in his Bucs' career against the Saints. In five regular-season meetings, New Orleans won and covered four times. Brady did cover and win versus the Saints in the earlier meeting this season at New Orleans (20-10), breaking his 0-4 skid versus New Orleans. Now, he goes for two-straight and this time Tampa is home.

The total in that NFC South clash was 43.5 and finished at 30 combined points. The total for the MNF meeting is 41.5 or 41.0. I would not be surprised to see another low-scoring affair between two quarterbacks that struggle to stretch the field.

The Bucs' opponents scored on 29.0% of drives this season, which is the second-lowest in the NFL. The Saints have allowed the second-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.2) since Week 7, so Brady's dink-and-dunk magic might be on full display tonight.

This game is a no bet for me, but a lean to the Under 41.5, in which 24-17 seems like the highest amount of points I can see in a Saints divisional game.

The Over has hit in three-straight MNF games and is 7-5-1 to the Over this season (58.3%) but I see that regressing here. Brady is 2-11 ATS in the past 13 Primetime games (15.3%), but that's another stat, I see positively regressing.

Brady is 3-0 to the Under versus NFC South opponents this season and the Saints are 2-1 to the Under. The NFC South is the Bucs for the taking, so it's Tampa Bay or pass for me. 

Leans: Under 41.5 and Buccaneers -3

 

Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.