Stetson Bennett O/U 275.5 Passing Yards vs. TCU
Last College Football playoffs, Bennett tossed 313 yards on Michigan and 224 yards on Alabama and this being his second National Title and with a year of experience, I expect he airs it out more this National Title game and puts his name in the hat for the MVP of this game.
In Stetson Bennett's 5 biggest games this season, he has balled out and gone Over this number three times now that the line moved off 269.5 and 272.5:
- Threw for 398 yards vs. Ohio State (12/31)
- Threw for 368 yards vs. Oregon (9/3)
- Threw for 316 yards vs. Florida (10/29)
- Threw for 274 yards vs. LSU (12/3)
- Threw for 257 yards vs. Tennessee (11/5)
Now, TCU sees Stetson Bennett and the reigning champion Georgia Bulldogs in the biggest game of their lives. TCU's defense ranks outside the top 100 in pressure and Bennett has better completion and EPA numbers against five defensive backs compared to four, so I like this matchup even if TCU attempts to slow down Bennett.
Give me the Over 275.5 Passing Yards for Bennett as I expect 300-plus yards. I would play this to 279.5.
Bennett is -150 to win the MVP of this game, so the Over passing yards is a better play.
Pick: Stetson Bennett Over 275.5 Passing Yards (1.5u)
Kendre Miller O/U Rushing Yards vs. Georgia
We will be squad riding this play, but have to wait for a line.
Rumors swirled that this was 78.5 for a few minutes before being taken off the board but he is listed as questionable for this game, so it is no surprise that came off the board.
That 78.5 number would be way too high even after 57 and 82 rushing yards versus Michigan and Kansas State. Miller and TCU lasted played on December 31st, so almost 10 days ago may not be enough time for Miller to recover.
Per sharpfootballanalysis, Miller averages 1.6 yards per attempt when contacted at or behind line of scrimmage, ranked 61st among FBS running backs compared to 8.9 yards per attempt when crossing line of scrimmage without contact, ranked 19th.
Georgia's defense leads the nation in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed and with a light box, the Bulldogs defense's contact rate at or behind the line of scrimmage is 8th in the country, so they should limit Miller's explosiveness at the line of scrimmage.
I would like to see a line over 60 rushing yards to take the Under, but we will wait and see.
Pick: Kendre Miller Under Rushing Yards (Likely 1.5u)
Georgia (-13.5) vs. TCU: O/U 63.5
We have witnessed fireworks so far in the College Football Playoffs and I don't expect that to stop.
Georgia's defense allowed C.J. Stroud to go 7-for-8 of passes 15 or more yards downfield and I believe TCU relies on Max Duggan's arms and legs heavily in this matchup.
The secondary of Georgia and defense overall isn't quite the same as last year's with all the departures and a Cinderella team like TCU and this offense could continue its run.
TCU has scored 28 or more points in all but one game this season, while Georgia ranks 8th in the nation with 39.4 points per game. The Horned Frogs' defense isn't a team that gets much pressure either, so Georgia's offense should be able to roll, especially if they win this game.
For Georgia's defense, they predicate themselves on pressure, but Duggan has an RPO, one-step or two-step droop back on 45% of passes this season. We can expect Duggan to get the ball out quick and attempt to get their most explosive playmakers in space with these defensive backs.
I grabbed the Over 63.0 at -115 odds, which is now -120 on DraftKings. Shop around for a 62.5 or 63.0 but I wouldn't say no to 63.5. Leans on Georgia Team Total Over 37.5 and TCU's Team Total Over 24.5.
Pick: Over 63.0 (0.5u)