Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet Jayson Tatum's player props in the Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks matchup.
Jayson Tatum O/U 28.5 Points vs. Bucks
Jayson Tatum started off last game hot before the Celtics went down by 20 and lost to the Wizards, so regrouping and moving forward to the Bucks was likely the topic of conversation the past two days.
Milwaukee is on the second night of a back-to-back, so Tatum and Boston have a rest advantage ahead of this bounce back spot. The Bucks won 149-136 last night with Jrue Holiday scoring a career-high 51 points with Giannis Antetokounmpo dropping 38 points.
In Tatum's last five regular season meetings versus Milwaukee, the Celtics' star scored 41, 25, 42, 27 and 34 points, hitting this Over three times.
After a loss, Tatum has averaged 33.8 points per game in the last five games following a loss (4-1 to Over) and he's currently on a 8-1 run to the Over in that situation.
On the season, Tatum averages 32.2 points per game following a loss (19 games). Tatum is 15-4 to the Over 28.5 points this year (78.4%) and 13-6 to the Over 29.5 points (68.4%) after a loss, so this prop has been profitable and worth riding.
Tatum has only gone Over 25 points once in Milwaukee (34), but I expect positive regression to hit this prop. Tatum finished with 28 points versus the Wizards after being benched 32 minutes on 11-of-19 (57.9%) shooting and only four free-throws. We can expect more shots and more free-throw attempts on national TV for Tatum.
I grabbed Tatum Over 28.5 Points (-115) and would go up to 29.5 here.
Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 28.5 Points (1u)
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