Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet the Golden State Warriors' Draymond Green's props versus the Memphis Grizzlies.
Draymond Green O/U 13.5 R+A vs. Grizzlies
Let's get back into the NBA with a nationally televised matchup between the Warriors and Grizzlies.
I focus on Draymond Green because he has a positive matchup and an outstanding history against Memphis.
In Green's last five meetings versus the Grizzlies, he recorded 20, 26, 14, 19 and 17 combined rebounds and assists for a 19.2 per game average. He's totaled at least 12 in eight of the past 10 meetings against Memphis.
The Grizzlies are down a few players, including Brandon Clarke, Steven Adams and Ja Morant. That opens up the rebound chances and the opportunities for the Warriors to steal a road win.
However, entering this matchup and over the past three games, Green has averaged 13.3 potential assists and 11.8 rebound chances per game (25.1) with 9.6 converted rebounds and assists per game (38.2%).
In other words, he has had opportunities to hit his Over, but the conversions weren't there. As a result, Green went Under 13.5 rebounds and assists in all three games.
I think this nationally televised game with three of Memphis' key rebounders and players out is a good spot to grab Green's props on what looks like a discount.
I played the Over 13.5 rebounds and assists at -125 and would go to 14.5 for 1 unit. I also sprinkled on a double-double at +450 odds on Draftkings. It's +330 on FanDuel.
Green has double-doubled once in the last five versus Memphis and once in the past five games entering this matchup, but in both situations, he's been 1-2 points, rebounds or assists short of a double-double and even a triple-double a few times.
Pick: Draymond Green Over 13.5 R+A (1u), Draymond Green Double-Double (0.25u)
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