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Dalzell's Dish

How to bet Zach LaVine and John Collins Props, plus Cavs/Thunder

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: November 21, 2022, 6:52 pm ET

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Zach LaVine O/U 20.5 Points vs. Celtics

Zach LaVine was benched down the stretch versus Orlando in a loss that dropped Chicago to 6-10.

LaVine was not happy and as a Bulls fan, neither was I. However, Billy Donovan and LaVine said they squashed the beef and you can bet that LaVine will come out aggressive to set the tone.

LaVine said after the game, “I got to do a better job at the beginning of the game to make my shots, but you play a guy like me down the stretch,” LaVine said. “That's what I do. Do I like the decision? No. Do I have to live with it? Yeah. Be ready to put my shoes on and play the next game.”

The Bulls guard played 25 minutes and scored four points versus Orlando. Last year, LaVine scored 10 or fewer points twice and rebounded the following games with 23 points each on 15 and 19 FGA (13 combined FTA).

LaVine scored 25 or more points in six-straight meetings versus Boston before scoring 7, 19 and 16 in the previous three meetings. I am expecting a breakout here. LaVine didn't attempt more than 15 shots in any of those three meetings versus Boston, but he should tonight at home.

LaVine is 20.5 on DraftKings at -125 odds and 21.5 on FanDuel at -108 odds, which is fine. I played LaVine 25+ points as well for +170 odds.

Pick: Zach LaVine Over 20.5 Points (Risk 1.5u), Zach LaVine 25+ Points (0.25u)

 

John Collins O/U 19.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Cavaliers

Since 2021, John Collins has recorded 19 or fewer PRA in three out of four meetings versus the Cavs.

Collins averages 10.4 points per game on the road this season with 46.2% from the field and 10% from three. The Cavaliers allow the third-fewest rebounds per game (40.8) and rank 15th in opponent field goal percentage (39.7%). 

Collins had five potential assists in his past game and converted four of them and 15 rebound chances (11 converted). He is very unlikely to repeat that type of success against Cleveland.

With Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen down low, I expect the bulk of Collins' time on the floor spent playing defense and setting screens. Although Cleveland played last night, they won 113-87 and no starter played more than 30 minutes.

Collins is 6-2 to the Under in the past eight games and 8-4 to the Under in the last 12.

I played Collins Under 19.5 Points + Rebounds at -108 odds on FanDuel. This is 18.5 on DraftKings and playable there.

Pick: John Collins Under 19.5 P+R (1u)

 

Hawks at Cavaliers (-2): O/U 226.0

Cleveland won five-straight at home versus Atlanta before dropping its previous home outing 121-118 on New Year's Eve of last season.

Since then, Atlanta has won and covered both meetings, but that came at the end of the 2021 regular-season when the Hawks were playing its best basketball and a had much deeper bench.

This is the first meeting of this season and Cleveland is fully healthy. While this is the second night of back-to-back for the Cavs, they are a "buy" team right now.

Cleveland has won two-straight games on this home-stand and I like the chances they finish it 4-0. The Cavs were on a 0-5 ATS and ML streak before those wins, so this is the time to buy into Cleveland. Four of those five losses were on the road.

At home, Cleveland is 6-1 on the ML and 5-1-1 ATS this season. The Cavs won by 10 (Wizards) and lost by two points (Clippers) in the lone second night of a back-to-back this season.

At home on the second night of a back-to-back, Cleveland is 6-3 on the ML and 4-1 on the ML as a favorite dating back to the start of the 2021-22 season.

The Hawks have alternated wins and losses in the past six games, following up a 25-point loss with a two-point OT win in the last two outings -- both at home.

I played the Cavaliers ML at home for -135 odds and would risk 1u on -150 if it moves there.

Pick: Cavaliers ML (1u)

 

Knicks at Thunder (-2): O/U 230.5

The Thunder are home favorites!

Oklahoma City has only been home favorites five times since the 2020-21 season and are 4-1 ATS and on the ML. OKC lost by four in the lone loss. If you go back one more season to 2019-20, the Thunder are 21-6 on the ML during that span as a home favorite, winning 11 of the past 13, per NBC's Edge Finder.

Following this game, New York will have played six games in the past nine days, which will beat any team down. The Knicks lost 116-95 at Phoenix last night and 111-101 at Golden State on Friday.

While the Thunder are not nearly as talented as the Suns or Warriors, OKC is a favorite for a reason and that reason is fatigue on the Knicks side.

On the second night of a back-to-back, New York is 1-1 ATS and on the ML this season. However, New York beat Denver 106-103 without Nikola Jokić in the lineup and lost to Boston 133-118 without any rest this season.

Over the past three games and in November, New York and OKC have very similar defensive net ratings but very different offensive rating. New York has the second-worst offensive field goal percentage in November, while OKC is 8th. Plus, OKC ranks 4th in offensive net rating over the last five games compared to New York coming in at 20th. 

When the Thunder have two days of rest, they are 11-3 ATS and 7-7 on the ML since the start of last season. OKC is 6-1 ATS and 5-2 on the ML at home with two days of rest in that same span, while being 1-0 ATS and on the ML as a favorite. 

Oklahoma City has had two days of rest and the only other time that happened was the second game of the season, a 122-117 road loss at Denver.

I grabbed the Thunder ML at home for -130 odds versus the Knicks. I would risk 1u on -150 if it moves there.

Pick: Thunder ML (1u)

 

GAME TRENDS

Warriors at Pelicans (-6): O/U 230.5

The Warriors broke an eight-game road losing streak last night at Houston to bring their road record to 1-8 ATS and 1-8 on the ML.

Golden State's only road cover this season came at New Orleans after the line moved from -3 to -10 after the Warriors sat most of their starters. Golden State lost by 9.

Magic at Pacers (-6.5): O/U 226.5

Orlando has covered the past two road games after starting 0-5-1 away from home. Indiana covered nine-straight games before failing to cover versus Orlando on Monday (-7.5 favorite and won by one). 

Since 2019, Indiana has won eight of 10 meetings. However, Orlando has covered three of the past four matchups and won two outright.

Celtics (-6) at Bulls: O/U 227.5

The Celtics are on a nine-game winning streak, (5-1 ATS in L6) and covered three-straight road games. 

The Bulls are 0-3 on the ML in the last three home games and currently on a 0-4 ATS and ML streak overall.

Heat at Timberwolves (-8.5): O/U 220.0

Miami has lost six-straight road games (1-5 ATS) and are one of the worst teams ATS this season (4-12 ATS).

The Heat are on a second night of a back-to-back, which they are 0-3 ATS and 2-1 on the ML this season.

 

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