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Myles Turner O/U 23.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Lakers
Myles Turner is set up for a bounce back spot versus a team he publicly said he wants to play for, the Lakers.
Turner should be aggressive and efficient today, as long as he doesn't have the jitters. On the year, Turner averages 18.2 points and 8.1 rebounds for 26.3 Points + Rebounds, so this line is a little low.
This is the second night of a back-to-back, which Turner has only done once this season. In that lone back-to-back, Turner double-doubled with 20 points and 11 rebounds over 34 minutes versus the Orlando Magic.
The Lakers are one of the worst rebounding teams to opponents in the past five games and to opposing big men on the season, so I like the rebounding pairing here with Turner's points. Anthony Davis is questionable and if he is out, we are in great shape.
In the past five games, Turner averages 13.8 rebound chances and 7.2 converted. In November, Turner posted 15.8 rebound chances and 8.5 converted boards per game, which is up from his season average of 14.6 and 8.1 per game.
After posting 9 points versus the Clippers on Sunday, I expect Turner to bounce back in a big way today. He could have caught in a look-ahead spot, resulting in 3-of-9 from the field (33.3%) and 1-of-6 from three (16.7%).
I played Turner Over 23.5 P+R at -115 odds on DraftKings. This is 24.5 elsewhere, which is playable.
Pick: Myles Turner Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds (1u)
Bulls at Jazz (-2): O/U 236.0
The Jazz are home favorites, which has been fade worthy this season.
Utah is 1-3 ATS and 2-2 on the ML as a home favorite, covering in a blowout win over the Lakers, but failed to cover the other three games.
As a home underdog, Utah is 4-0 ATS and on the ML, so it's clear how to bet the Jazz as dogs.
Chicago is 5-2 ATS and 3-4 on the ML as a road underdog this season. The Bulls are coming off an OT road loss to the Thunder, but were impressive during wins versus the Celtics and Bucks.
Chicago has a habit of playing down to its competition, so it's no surprise they covered and beat Milwaukee and Boston, but lost to Oklahoma City. Chicago was terrible versus the top four in the East last season and that was a point of emphasis for this season.
I think Chicago will get back on the winning side here and if former Bulls player Lauri Markkanen is out, Chicago was close as a PK or -1 favorite.
The Jazz rank 22nd in opponent field goal percentage, 24th in three-point defense and 27th in points per game over the past five games. The offensive net rating is 4th in the last five games, but the defense is last!
Pick: Bulls ML (1u)
Timberwolves at Wizards (-1)
I am looking at the Wizards tonight hosting the T'Wolves. Both teams played last night and traveled from Minnesota and Boston (Washington was at Boston).
Washington has won five of the past six at home and 7 out of 11 on the year (63.4%, +2.21 units).
Minnesota is 4-5 ATS on the road this season and 1-2 ATS and on the ML as a road underdog. On the second night of a back-to-back, the Wolves are 1-1 ATS at on the ML, while the Wizards are 2-1 ATS and on the ML in the same situation.
Magic at Nets (-10.5)
Both of these teams are on back-to-backs as well and we faded Brooklyn yesterday, but they cashed as Portland blew their halftime lead and lost by double-digits.
The Nets are now 10-33 ATS in the past 43 games as a home favorite. This season, the Nets are 2-3 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back and 0-1 as home favorite with no rest.
Orlando is 2-0 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back this season, but have a few players out. The Magic +10.5 might end up on the card tonight, but we could get a better number closer to tip.
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