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Warriors at Mavericks (-2.5): O/U 218.5
That was one hell of a comeback by the Golden State Warriors in the second half of Game 2.
For me, I was stoked because that set up what I called on numerous radio stations for Game 3, "A big boy bet".
I haven't bet the spread for Game 1 or 2 in hopes the Warriors took a 2-0 lead back to Dallas and the Mavericks are in an essential situation. Maximum sense of urgency with maximum effort needed. If Dallas loses, the series is over and a sweep is likely, if Dallas wins, the series is still on.
Dallas is 5-1 ATS and on the ML at home this season, winning and covering five straight. The Under is also 5-1 with four straight wins, per NBC's Edge Finder.
The Mavs were only home favorites once in the postseason. That came Game 6 at home versus Utah and they won 102-77. The Mavericks were only favorites twice in the playoffs and won/covered both times.
The Warriors have struggled on the road in the postseason, especially as favorites, which they have been every game. Golden State is 1-4 ATS (20%) and 2-3 on the ML (40%). The Warriors have failed to cover four straight and lost two consecutive road games.
Game 3 versus Dallas will the first as a road dog in the playoffs for Golden State. I think that is telling up 2-0, especially after what we saw from the Mavs in the first half of Game 2.
I grabbed the Mavericks ML at -140 odds for 2u (risk 2.8 to win 2u) and would play out to -150 before opting for a -3 for +100 at 1.5u.
Pick: Mavericks ML (2u)
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