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Terry Rozier O/U 19.5 Points vs. Heat
We faded Terry Rozier on Saturday against the 76ers and he scored 10 points on 2-of-9 from the field (22.2%) and 1-of-5 from three (20%).
Over the last 10 games, Rozier has scored 19 or fewer points in eight contests (80%) and eight of the past nine, per NBC's Edge Finder. Rozier averages 17.7 points per game on 32.2 minutes and 44.8% from the field.
However, in the last four games, his numbers have dropped to 12.8 points per game, 33.3% shooting from the field and 24% from three in 31.1 minutes. Rozier scored 10, 15, 12 and 14 points in his last four games. PointsBet has already lowered this to 18.5, while other books offer the 19.5 juiced to the Under.
Rozier will face the Miami Heat, who allowed the second-fewest points per game to opposing point guards (21.10) and ranks top 10 in rebounds (1st) and assists (8th). This is a tough matchup for Rozier who is in a bit of a cold streak.
The Hornets guard has played 18 career games versus the Heat and went Under 19.5 points 17 times (94.4%). He scored 5 and 16 points in two meetings this season on a combined 8-of-21 from the field (38%) and two total free-throws.
Fade Scary Terry down to 18.5 points as I like the chances to he does not reach 20 points against the Miami Heat's stingy defense. I rolled with the Under 19.5 points at -116 odds.
Pick: Terry Rozier Under 19.5 Points (2u)
Moses Brown O/U 20.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Magic
Moses Brown is on the upswing without Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. There is a chance he sees extended minute in this game against the tanking Orlando Magic.
Over the last five games, Orlando has allowed the most rebounds per game (49.6) and rank 23rd in offensive rebounding percentage (25%). In the previous meeting versus the Knicks, the Magic gave up 50 points in the paint, which is more than the 44-45 points per game average in the last five.
Orlando is beginning to rest players like Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr. and Cole Anthony. While the two are listed as day-to-day, we know the truth. Brown will have a weakened front court to go up against headlined by Mo Bamba, Chuma Okeke and Moritz Wagner.
Our model projects Brown to record 22.7 P+R in 22 minutes and that's a minute total he could exceed. Brown only played 20 minutes against the 76ers because of foul trouble and how well Lauri Markkanen was playing.
Luckily, Brown will not be going up against a Joel Embiid type of player tonight, so foul trouble should not be an issue.
Before the 76ers game, Brown played 30, 26 and 21 minutes in three games previously, so he should see over 22 minutes against a tanking Orlando to save Kevin Love and Markkanen some rest and minutes.
Brown is averaging 20.0 rebound chances per game over his last three and 18.0 over the previous four (72 total rebound chances in four games). He has brought down 47-of-72 rebound chances (65.2%) in that four-game span, which is significant going up against Orlando tonight.
I like Brown to go over his combo play of 20.5 points and rebounds (-120) up to 21.5. He has hit 21 or more points and rebounds in four straight games, including 28 and 29 before the Philly game.
Pick: Moses Brown Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds (1u)
ML Parlay (-104): Bucks (-180) and Cavaliers (-375)
I love the Chicago Bulls, but did you know that versus the top 4 seeds in the East, they are 1-12 on the ML (7%)?
That's right. Versus the Bucks, Celtics, 76ers and Heat, the Bulls have lost 12 out of 13, including 12 straight, per NBC's Edge Finder. Chicago is not a top four team in the East and they have showed that by beating up on worse competition and struggling with the Eastern elites.
Chicago is 1-9 on the ML over the last 10 meetings (10%) versus Milwaukee and 4-6 ATS (40%). As we inch closer to the playoffs, Milwaukee holds the No. 3 seed with room to maneuver. Chicago is No. 5, but holding on by a string as they are tied with Toronto.
The Raptors have been the better team and have the easier schedule to jump the Bulls in the standings. I expect Chicago to drop this game and most likely at least half of the remaining four games against the Bucks, Celtics, Hornets and Timberwolves.
The Cavaliers are another team that could use a win and should. Cleveland is No. 7 in the East, sitting at the top play-in spot. The Cavs would need to win out and the Bulls lost out to be the No. 6 seed, which is possible but doubtful.
Orlando, on the other hand, is fighting for the worst record in the NBA at 20-59 on the season. The tanking Magic have started shutting down players like Cole Anthony and Franz Wagner for the season, while the Cavs are fighting for every game.
Cleveland won both meetings this season 107-101 and 105-92. I fully expect a season sweep here as Orlando will likely allow that to happen. Cleveland is 27-10 on the ML as a favorite this season (72.9%), while Orlando is 15-55 on the ML as an underdog (21.4%) losing four straight and six of the past seven.
I parlayed these two ML's at -104 odds. I would play out to -125.
Picks: Bucks ML and Cavs ML Parlay (2u)
Rockets +17 vs. Nets
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