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Dalzell's Dish

NBA Player Props, Jan. 3: How to bet Trae Young and Hawks vs Blazers

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: January 3, 2022, 3:19 pm ET

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Trae Young O/U 9.5 Assists vs. Blazers

Late night hoops in the association? I am here for it.

Trae Young is on a heater, scoring and passing lately, which is bad news bears for the Portland Trail Blazers.

Over the last four games, Young has double-doubled three times and scored at least 26 points in all four games.

NBC's player prop model projects Young to record 12.5 assists and lead the league in assists. Mix the Blazers' guard defense with Young's potential assists and his recent usage rate and well, that is why he has double-doubled three of his last four.

Trae Young Assists

 

On the season, Young is 17-15 to the Over 9.5 assists (53%), but 7-3 in his last 10 (70%). When he plays 31 or more minutes, Young is 8-2 to the Over in the last 10 (80%). He owns a 60% or better hit rate on the year at 35-plus minutes, which is around what we should expect tonight.

The Hawks have a ton of players out with COVID right now, so Young is taking on a larger role with more usage. There is a chance a few players could come back for this game, but either way, Young will command the offense.

Trae Young hit rate

 

Looking at his potential assists per NBA.com, Young averages 17.4 potential assists on the season, but 22.4 in his past three and five games. Going back 10 outings, Young averaged a league-leading 20.1 potential assists per game.

Young ranked fourth in the NBA with 17.4 potential assists in November, but finished first in December with 20.2. Portland presents a favorable matchup for Young to cash the Over 9.5 assists.

The Blazers allow the third-most assists per game to opposing point guards (8.94) and the sixth-most to shooting guards (4.87). Overall, Portland as a team permits the fourth-most assists per game (27.2) in the past five games and  the third-most on the season (25.8).

Per statmuse, Young has 11 or more assists in four straight meetings with the Blazers and seven or more in all six career meetings.

Young vs Blazers

 

Back Young to double-double or go Over 9.5 Assists (-120) as he should have another 20-plus potential assists in this more than positive matchup with the Blazers.

Pick: Trae Young Over 9.5 Assists (1u)

 

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