Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet No. 6 Kentucky versus No. 3 Kansas State in the NCAA Tournament.
Kentucky (-3) vs. Kansas State: O/U 145.5
It's a battle between the Wildcats for a trip to the Sweet 16.
Kentucky should dominate the boards and in the first round matchup versus Providence, Kentucky had 48 total rebounds, including 18 offensive. Oscar Tshiebwe finished with 8 points and 25 rebounds versus the Friars.
Kentucky is the No. 2 team in the country at offensive rebounding percentage (38.9%) and 54th in defensive (25.4%) compared to Kansas State who ranks 98th in offensive (31%) and 219th in defensive (29.2%).
Kansas State snuck by Montana State without much issues, but this K-State squad turns the ball over 20% of the time (298th) and only brings back 19% of the minutes from last year (316th) as a completely new team. Despite all the turnover on the roster and on the court, K-State is a top 50 offense and defense.
However, K-State's weakness on defense is the two-point defense (49.1%, 128th). Kentucky scores 56.4% of its points from two (30th) and isn't the worst three-point offense (35.2%) but not the best either.
Kentucky went 5-of-16 from three (33.2%) versus Providence and K-State held Montana State to 6-of-21 from deep (28.6%), while only hitting 4-of-15 themselves (26.7%). Neither team can be trusted from deep, but Kentucky can be trusted to rebound, win the turnover battle and dominate inside.
This game should go to Kentucky and be another low-scoring contest. I played Kentucky on the ML at -150 odds and took the Under for a unit at 145.0 (-115). I would go down to 143.0 on the Under.
Pick: Kentucky ML (Risk 2u), Under 145.0 (1u)
Other March Madness Picks:
Xavier vs. Pittsburgh
Saint Mary's vs. UConn
Michigan State vs. Marquette
Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Florida Atlantic
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