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Matthew Stafford O/U 36.5 Pass Attempts vs. Jaguars
This is too many passes for Matthew Stafford against a lowly Jaguars team.
Stafford has hit the Over 36.5 pass attempts seven out of 11 times (63.6%) this season. Three of the four Unders were blowout wins. I see that being a strong possibility here.
Stafford is also banged up. Multiple reports claimed Stafford is dealing with numerous injuries ranging from pain in his throwing arm, his elbow, a sore ankle and chronic back pain.
Well, if that is true, I like the Under here even more after a hard-fought game in Green Bay.
Out of all the quarterbacks Jacksonville has faced, only Josh Allen (47) and Tua Tagovailoa (47) went Over 36.5 pass attempts this season.
Every other quarterback went for 34 or fewer pass attempts this season, per statmuse.
This is one of my two favorite plays on the board this week. Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel should see plenty of opportunities in this matchup to relieve Stafford.
Play Stafford Under 36.5 pass attempts down to 35.5 for 1.5u against Jacksonville.
Pick: Matthew Stafford Under 36.5 Pass Attempts (2u)
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Damien Harris O/U 55.5 Rushing Yards vs. Bills
This player prop is already down to 48.5 on DraftKings and 51.5 on FanDuel, so we are playing multiple two-unit play in more than a few weeks. LET'S GO!
On the season, Damien Harris is 7-4 to the Over (64%) but hit 56 or fewer yards in the past three games, per NBC's Edge Finder.
Harris posted a lot of Overs until a few weeks ago. Lately, his snap share is lowering, affecting his rushing numbers.
According to PlayerProfiler, Harris' snap share was the second-lowest of the season last week and the third-fewest rushing attempts.
In the past three weeks, Harris' 42.4% snap share or lower is the lowest three-game stretch in terms of plays on the season.
Buffalo has permitted the fifth-fewest rushing yards on the season (1,063), the second-fewest yards per carry (3.9) and the third-fewest rushes of 20-plus yards (4).
Harris is not the most shifty running back, ranking 15th or worse in breakaway run rates, juke rate, evaded tackles and yards per touch.
If the Patriots want to beat the Bills in Buffalo on Sunday Night Football, it will be courtesy of Mac Jones' arm and Bill Belichick's game plan.
I would play this at 1.5 units for 51.5 yards and anything under for 1 unit down to 45.5. I like the chances that Harris does not sniff 50 rushing yards.
Pick: Damien Harris Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (2u)
Gerald Everett O/U 31.5 Receiving Yards vs. 49ers
Let's run it back and fade another tight end against the 49ers.
Gerald Everett has recorded 37, 37 and 63 yards over the past three games after hitting 40 or fewer in three consecutive.
Going over every tight end before him, only Jesse James and T.J. Hockenson surpassed 30 receiving yards against the 49ers.
Tyler Conklin: 2 REC, 3 TAR, 25 YDS
Dan Arnold: 0 REC, 0 TAR, 0 YDS
Tyler Higbee: 3 REC, 5 TAR, 20 YDS
Zach Ertz: 3 REC, 5 TARG, 27 YDS
Jesse James: 3 REC, 3 TAR, 38 YDS
Mo Alie-Cox: 3 REC, 3 TAR, 25 YDS
Maxx Williams: 1 REC, 1 TAR, 14 YDS
Will Dissly: 2 REC, 2 TAR, 5 YDS
Robert Tonyan: 1 REC, 1 TAR, 6 YDS
Dallas Goedert: 2 REC, 2 TAR, 24 YDS
T.J. Hockenson: 8 REC, 11 TAR, 97 YDS
Russell Wilson does not look like himself, and if he is to get back into a groove, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are the two receivers getting the ball.
With an atrocious rushing attack, led by Alex Collins, I like Wilson to attack the outside and 49ers' corners, much like the quarterbacks prior to this meeting.
Everett's numbers have risen with Wilson back, specifically his targets, but this is a great fade spot against the No. 1 defense versus tight ends.
Everett is projected to post 24 yards by the NBC Player Prop Model. He recorded 16, 27, 0 and 9 yards in the last four meetings against the 49ers.
Back the Under 31.5 yards down to 29.5 for 1 unit.
Pick: Gerald Everett Under 31.5 Receiving Yards (1u)
Blitzing The Board Play:
Baltimore Ravens -4.5 (1u) at Pittsburgh Steelers
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Washington +2 at Las Vegas
Las Vegas will be without Darren Waller and Washington has won three straight, getting hot after the bye week!
Let's continue to ride WFT as they sit in 7th of the NFC playoff race. A win here would propel them and give this team a ton of confidence.
Las Vegas is coming off a 36-33 OT win on Thanksgiving against Dallas without its head coach.
WFT is live to win outright, so let's ride with the +2 and ride this team until they lose or do not cover.
Pick: WFT +2 (1u)
Austin Ekeler O/U 41.5 Receiving Yards vs. Bengals
Austin Ekeler's line is 41.5 on FanDuel and 50.5 on DraftKings and PointsBet.
Grab the 41.5 and pass on the 50.5.
The Bengals struggle with opposing running backs who can catch the ball in space.
Ekeler has cashed Over 41.5 receiving yards seven out of 11 games (63.6%).
Our model projects 48 yards as to where others have him surpassing 50.
Ekeler should continue that trend in what should be a pass-heavy game between Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow.
I would play up to 44.5 for 1.5 unit then everything until 50+ is 1 unit.
Pick: Austin Ekeler Over 41.5 receiving yards (1.5u)
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