Dalzell's Dish

Betting Props on Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Cooper Rush, Deebo and more

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: September 18, 2022, 9:22 am ET

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Aaron Rodgers O/U 36.5 Longest Completion vs. Bears

It's a bounce back week for the Packers and they are excellent in this position... and against the Bears.

Aaron Rodgers had an underwhelming game in Week 1 versus the Vikings and his receivers did not do much to help. Everyone will remember the dropped pass deep from rookie Christian Watson in the first quarter and that's something Green Bay will look to attempt again against Chicago.

Rodgers has been money against the Bears to this prop, especially at home, plus he's been automatic following a loss, so I expect the Packers passing offense to look much improved in Week 2.

Against the Bears at home, Rodgers completed a pass 37-plus yards in five-straight games dating back to 2017.

Following a loss in the regular-season, Rodgers is 7-1 to the Over 36.5 longest completion since 2019.

Over the last seven games following a zero-TD effort from Rodgers, he exploded for a deep pass of 37-plus yards in five of those contests.

Rodgers has great numbers on this prop coming off a loss, coming off a zero-TD effort, and versus the Bears, so give me Over 36.5 Longest Completion for 1.5 units at -110 odds on DraftKings. I would play this to 38.5 for 1 unit.

Pick: Aaron Rodgers Over 36.5 Longest Completion (1.5u)

 

Bears at Packers (-10): O/U 44.0

I wrote about this here, but these are the quick points on the Sunday Night Football game.

The Packers have won and covered 11-straight regular-season games following a loss with Aaron Rodgers! Green Bay has not lost back-to-back games in the regular season since 2018, per NBC's Edge Finder.

Packers off a loss

 

In 27 career games versus Chicago, Rodgers is 22-5 on the ML (81.4%) and 20-7 ATS (70%). Below are the home ATS records for Green Bay versus Chicago with Rodgers playing.

Rodgers is 12-2 on the ML (85.7%) and 10-4 ATS (71.4%) at home versus the Bears in his career. Rodgers is 3-1 ATS in the games tagged as a -10 point home favorites or more against Chicago.

Go Pack Go!

Pick: Packers -9.5 or -10 (1u)

 

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Deebo Samuel O/U 85.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards vs. Seahawks

In three career games versus the Seattle Seahawks, Deebo Samuel has went off.

Per statmuse, Samuel has recorded 102-plus receiving yards in all three outings and a total of 370 receiving yards, plus 34 rushing yards. Samuel caught at least five passes in every game versus Seattle and scored in two-straight games.

Deebo Samuel

 

I expect Samuel to see a significant workload with Elijah Mitchell out and George Kittle likely out. If Kittle plays, I still like this Over.

The offense is down to a few playmakers and in Week 1, Samuel recorded 52 rushing yards on eight attempts and two receptions on seven targets for 14 yards in a monsoon. 

This contest could feature light rain at points, but nothing like Week 1 for San Fran. Back Deebo to have his usual loud outing versus Seattle and go Over his total yards prop. I think Samuel posts around 10 rushing attempts as Jeff Wilson steps in as the starting running back and he sees at least four receptions.

I played the Over 85.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards at -114 odds on FanDuel. PointsBet has 85.5 as well.

I like both his rushing and receiving separate if you'd prefer to play that way.

Pick: Deebo Samuel Over 85.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (1u)

 

Tom Brady O/U 0.5 Interceptions vs. Saints

Tom Brady is 0-4 ATS and on the ML versus the Saints in the regular-season as a member of the Buccaneers, so a hot ticket will be the Saints +2.5 and +3 today.

I wanted to fade Tom Brady's passing yards but it's dropped from 275.5 down to 271.5 to 265.5.

In Tom Brady's nine career regular-season meetings with the Saints, he is 6-3 to the Under 265.5 passing yards and 3-1 to the Under as a member of the Buccaneers, 4-1 with the postseason included.

However, Brady has been very consistent on the road and versus the Saints when it comes to interceptions.

Brady has thrown an interception in four-straight games versus New Orleans and tossed one last week at Dallas.

In those four regular-season meetings versus the Saints, Brady has thrown eight interceptions! Three of those games feature two or more interceptions tossed.

The Bucs QB has thrown an interception in seven out of the last eight road games and seven out of 10 dating back to 2021, per statmuse.

Brady

 

New Orleans did not get an interception on the road in Week 1, but the Saints defense has recorded a pick in four-straight at home and seven out of eight home games in 2021!

I like the history here versus Brady and the Saints defense at home in this matchup.

I played Brady to throw an interception at -125 odds on DraftKings and would play out to -140.

Pick: Tom Brady Over 0.5 Interceptions (1u)

 

Cooper Rush O/U 213.5 Passing Yards vs. Bengals

In Cooper Rush's only start (2021 vs Vikings), he recorded 24-of-40 passing for 325 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.

The Cowboys upset the Vikings 20-16 on the road as +4 point underdogs with Rush at quarterback. Dallas is the only team in the league that has yet to score a touchdown and that will change versus Cincy.

While everyone will be looking at fading the Cowboys and their quarterback today, if the last few years have taught us anything, fading backup QBs and their spreads is not the easiest bet and does not pay off as often as you'd think.

NBC's player prop model has Rush at 275 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns to 0.9 interceptions.

I see real value on Rush's Passing Yards Over 213.5 (-110) and Passing TDs Over 1.5 (+200).

Rush

 

Rush is expected to do perform better than the Steelers Mitch Trubisky did in Week 1 (194 passing yards, 1 TD) and I think Rush can in a non-divisional spot versus what could be a desperate Bengals team.

I played his Over 1.5 Passing TDs at +200 odds for a 0.5 unit and 1 unit on the Over 213.5 Passing Yards (-110).

I played both on FanDuel because the passing yards prop is 219.5 (-125) on DraftKings.

Pick: Cooper Rush Over 1.5 Passing TDs (0.5u), Cooper Rush Over 213.5 Passing Yards (1u)

 

Antonio Gibson O/U 78.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards vs. Lions

Go to Twitter here for more on this play.

Gibson

 

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