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Dalzell's Dish

NFL Wild Card Weekend: Who to bet in 49ers vs Cowboys

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: January 13, 2022, 11:33 am ET

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49ers at Cowboys (-3): O/U 51.5

San Francisco and Dallas meet in the Wild Card Weekend for what could and should be the most competitive game on Saturday.

Per NBC's Game Prediction Model, both teams have significant trends going for them. 

The 49ers have won 18 of its last 25 road games (72%), while the Cowboys won 12 of the previous 15 games versus NFC opponents (80%) and covered 13 times (86.7%). 

However, nine of those 15 games for Dallas came against NFC East opponents, which they were 8-1 SU against (88.9%).

SF vs DAL

 

Dallas has lost two of its last three home games entering the postseason, and historically, the Cowboys are 2-3 on the ML (40%) and 1-3-1 ATS (25%) at home since 2008 in the playoffs -- they were the favorite every game.

Both Dak Prescott and Jimmy Garoppolo will make their fourth start in the postseason. Garoppolo's only road start was a neutral field trip to the Super Bowl, a 31-20 loss to the Chiefs -- Jimmy G's only loss in the playoffs.

With Jimmy G, the 49ers are 11-6 (64.7%) on the ML as an underdog in his career, plus a 12-5 mark ATS (70.6%). As a road dog, Garoppolo is 9-3 ATS (75%) and 8-4 on the ML (66.7%), per NBC's Edge Finder.

 

Jimmy G as road dog

 

Prescott has scored at least two touchdowns, passing and rushing, in every playoff game so far, but is 1-2 on the ML (33.3%). With Prescott as a home favorite, Dallas is 18-19-1 ATS (48.6%) and 25-13 on the ML (65.8%) over his career. 

As a slim home favorite of a pick-em to -3, Dallas is 3-6-1 ATS (33.3%) over Prescott's career. 

This year, Dallas has three wins over teams with a winning record: the Panthers, Eagles and Chargers. Not very impressive, considering two of the three wins came in the first four weeks of the season.

On the other hand, the 49ers are 4-3 ATS and on the ML (57.1%) versus teams with winning records, beating the Rams twice, Bengals and Eagles this season. 

Let's ride the 49ers +3 as they are live dogs to win.

Pick: 49ers +3 (1u)

 

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Vaughn Dalzell

Vaughn Dalzell is a former Division I SID, two-time IUP Alumnus and former contributor for numberFire, FantasyPros and Bet The Prop. You can follow him on Twitter for more insight @VmoneySports.